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Journalism of Courage
The lack of a clear winner in the presidential race notwithstanding, the first round of the general elections in Turkey has some clear messages. First, the ruling Islamist-national People’s Alliance, led by President Recep Erdogan’s AK Party, has a majority in the legislature (which is elected through a proportional representation system).
This means that no matter who wins the highest executive office in the run-off election for president to be held on May 28, the far-reaching constitutional changes brought about by Erdogan — which concentrated executive power and marked a distinct authoritarian turn — will be very difficult to undo.
The verdict also confirms the political polarisation in Turkey. Finally, while it is clear that Erdogan is still the most popular leader, his popularity has declined — he won just over 49 per cent of the vote and the challenger, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu won 45 per cent.
Through much of this century, Erdogan as been the central pole of Turkey’s politics (first as prime minister and then, president). His reimagining of the country’s role in the region and beyond has had a significant geopolitical impact: Under his rule, the state gradually began to champion religious conservatism and Ankara began to assume a more active, interventionist role in regional affairs.
Turkey has played an aggressive role in Syria and given support to controversial actors in Libya and Azerbaijan. Turkey also conducted strikes against Kurdish populations in Iraq. A member of the NATO that has long sought entry into the EU, Erdogan’s Turkey has been truculent vis a vis the West and drawn closer to Russia. Erdogan’s revanchist ideological stance evokes the Ottoman Empire and sees Ankara assuming leadership of the Islamic world.
For example, Turkey has been one of the few Islamic nations that has staunchly, even stridently, backed Pakistan on Kashmir in international fora. There is now some reason for optimism that a moderate as president — or even a diminished Erdogan — will result in a softening of Turkey’s external posture.
Erdogan’s authoritarian turn — and the manner in which he transformed the Turkey’s political and institutional landscape — has been mirrored in many countries across the world to varying degrees. What seems to have dented his popularity this time are ill-thought-out economic policies — for instance, his refusal to raise interest rates despite sky-rocketing inflation.
Kiliçdaroglu has also emerged as a leader who is willing to stitch together a coalition and steer away from the politics of identity. Whether that is enough to make up the difference in votes in the run-off election remains to be seen.
