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This is an archive article published on July 5, 2021

Covid burden higher in Pune in 2nd wave but CFR declined over time: Study

Researchers with the Pune Knowledge Cluster comprising city-based academicians, institutions and industry partners conducted the retrospective analysis of Covid-19 mortality data that compared the first and second wave in the city.

Pune news, Pune city news, Pune Covid-19 news, PMC Pune staff covid-19, PMC pune jobs, Pune city news Pune covid cases news, pune today news, pune local news, new pune news, pune covid 19 cases, covid, pune today news, latest pune newsAt a Covid-19 care centre in Pune. (File)

Even as the absolute burden of Covid-19 and deaths was more significant in the second wave in Pune city, the case fatality ratio (CFR) declined as the pandemic progressed, a new epidemiological analysis has said.

According to the report (posted as a pre-print on medRxiv) ‘Burden of Covid-19 and Case Fatality Rate in Pune India: An Analysis of First and Second Wave of the Pandemic’, the fatality rate was 47 per cent lower in the second wave than in the first wave. CFR is the proportion of deaths from a disease compared to the total number of people diagnosed for a particular period.

Researchers with the Pune Knowledge Cluster comprising city-based academicians, institutions and industry partners conducted the retrospective analysis of Covid-19 mortality data that compared the first and second wave in the city.

Of 7,920 people who died in Pune city, as many as 4,146 (52 per cent) died in the first wave (March 9–Oct 31, 2020), 590 (8 per cent) in the maintenance phase (Nov 1,2020 till Feb 15,2021) and 3,184 (40 per cent) in the second wave (Feb 16-June 7 2021).

The CFR rapidly declined from 3.91 per 1,000 person-days to 1.66 per 1,000 person-days during the first wave after the introduction of clinical management focused mainly on intravenous steroids used for severe Covid-19 in June 2020. It further declined to 0.77 per cent during the second wave. The age group 65-85 saw the highest decline in CFR over time.

Researchers from BJ Government Medical College-Johns Hopkins University Clinical Research Site (CRS), Pune, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research and others involved in this study said CFR has continuously dropped over the past year, indicating the capability to test, treat and trace have all improved during this pandemic.

Professor Joy Merwin Monteiro, one of the co- authors of the study and a scientist at IISER, told The Indian Express that the initial decrease in CFR in the first wave was likely due to introduction of better clinical management of severe cases and further decrease in CFR during the second wave is likely due to better capacity to test and identify infections.

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The largest drop in CFR has been for the age group 65-85 years, which suggests better management of the disease in at-risk age groups. But the majority of deaths have been in the age-group 18-65, which is economically the most productive age group and is likely to impact the economic status of the affected families.

During the study period (March 2020 till May 2021), of the 465,192 Covid-19 cases in Pune city, a total of 162,182 (35 per cent) were reported in the first wave while 27,517 (6 per cent) cases were registered during the maintenance period. The second wave reported 275,493 (59 per cent) cases .
According to the study’s lead author Dr Prasad Bogam from BJMC-Johns Hopkins University Clinical Research Site, “The reasons for the decline of CFR as the pandemic progressed are unclear and need to be explored further. The severity of the disease associated with the new strain – B .1.617 has to be investigated as our data suggests that coronavirus disease caused by this variant of concern may be less severe and hence less fatal.”

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Anuradha Mascarenhas is a Senior Editor at The Indian Express, based in Pune. With a career spanning three decades, she is one of the most respected voices in Indian journalism regarding healthcare, science and environment and research developments. She also takes a keen interest in covering women's issues . Professional Background Education: A gold medalist in Communication and Journalism from Savitribai Phule Pune University and a Master’s degree in Literature. Author: She authored the biography At The Wheel Of Research, which chronicles the life and work of Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, the former Chief Scientist at the WHO. Key Focus: She combines scientific accuracy with storytelling, translating complex medical research into compelling public and human-interest narratives. Awards and Recognition Anuradha has won several awards including the Press Council of India's national award for excellence in journalism under the gender based reporting category in 2019 and the Laadli Media award (gender sensitivity -2024). A recipient of the Lokmat journalism award (gender category-2022), she was also shortlisted for the RedInk awards for excellence in journalism-2021. Her debut book At The Wheel Of Research, an exclusive biography of Dr Soumya Swaminathan the inaugural chief scientist of World Health Organisation was also nominated in the Popular Choice Category of JK Paper AUTHER awards. She has also secured competitive fellowships including the Laadli Media Fellowship (2022), the Survivors Against TB – New Research in TB Media Fellowship (2023) and is part of the prestigious 2025 India Cohort of the WomenLift Health Leadership Journey.” Recent Notable Articles (Late 2025) 1. Cancer & Specialized Medical Care "Tata Memorial finds way to kill drug-resistant cancer cells" (Nov 26, 2025): Reporting on a breakthrough for triple-negative breast cancer, one of the most aggressive forms of the disease. Discipline, diet and purpose; How a 97-year-old professor defies ageing'' (Nov 15, 2025) Report about Prof Gururaj Mutalik, the first Head of Department at Pune's B J Government Medical College who at 97 credits his longevity to healthy habits and a strong sense of purpose. 2. Environmental Health (The "Breathless Pune" Series) Long-term exposure even to 'moderate' air leads to chronic heart, lung, kidney issues" (Nov 26, 2025): Part of an investigative series highlighting that even "safe" pollution levels are damaging to vital organs. "For every 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 level, there was 6-8% jump in medicine sales" (Nov 23, 2025): Using commercial data to prove the direct link between air quality and respiratory illnesses in Pune. 3. Lifestyle & Wellness News "They didn't let cancer, diabetes and heart disease stop them from travelling" (Dec 22, 2025): A collaborative piece featuring survivors who share practical tips for traveling with chronic conditions. At 17, his BP shot up to 200/120 mmHG; Lancet study flags why child and teen hypertension doubled between 2000 and 2020'' (Nov 12,2025)--A report that focusses on 17-year-old-boy's hypertensive crisis and reflects the rising global trend of high blood pressure among children and adolescents. 4. Scientific Recognition & Infrastructure For promoting sci-comm, gender diversity: IUCAA woman prof highlighted in Nature" (Nov 25, 2025): Covering the global recognition of Indian women scientists in gender studies and physics. Pune researchers find a spiral galaxy like the Milky Way from early universe'' (December 3, 2025)- A report on how Indian researchers discovered a massive galaxy that existed when the universe was just 1.5 billion years old , one of the earliest to have been observed so far. Signature Beat: Health, Science & Women in Leadership Anuradha is known for her COVID-19 reportage, where she was one of the first journalists to provide detailed insights into the Covishield and Covaxin trials. She has a dedicated interest in gender diversity in health and science, often profiling women researchers who are breaking the "leaky pipeline" in STEM fields. Her writing style is scrupulous, often featuring interviews with top-tier scientists and health experts from various institutions.   ... Read More


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