Poor quality air forecast for Pune during Diwali, might worsen if it drizzles: SAFAR

The forecast is based on two model scenarios -- Additional Firecracker emissions: Nil (0 per cent) and Additional Firecracker emissions: 50 per cent of 2019 emissions.

As per data by the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB), the Air Quality Index (AQI) of Delhi averaged 462 i.e 'severe' for 24 hours on November 5, a day after Diwali. (File)

The quality of air in Pune is expected to remain poor during the Diwali period, according to a forecast by the System of Air Quality Forecasting And Research (SAFAR). There is a likelihood of rain during the period, and, according to SAFAR experts, if it drizzles, it may further deteriorate the air quality.

“However, if there is sufficient rain, it will wash away pollutants and the AQI (air quality index) will be better,” Dr Gufran Beig, founder project-director at SAFAR, told The Indian Express.

Read | Day after Diwali, Delhi’s air quality turns ‘severe’; Mumbai remains ‘moderate’

Being said that in the context of a 50 per cent additional firecracker scenario and with the winter setting in, the forecast for the air quality is “poor” on November 4 and “very poor” on November 5. “It will be back to moderate on the afternoon of November 6,” Dr Beig said.

Due to the low temperatures (minimum temperature around 18-19˚C) in the region, the mixing layer height is also likely to be low, SAFAR scientists said. Winds — majorly easterly in direction – are expected to be calm, leading to accumulation of pollutants and a resultant faster deterioration in air quality, they added.

Also Read | Delhi air quality could deteriorate to ‘severe’ on Nov 5

The forecast for the Diwali-2021 period for Pune is based on the indigenously developed SAFAR-Air Quality Forecasting Framework. The forecast is based on two model scenarios — Additional Firecracker emissions: Nil (0 per cent) and Additional Firecracker emissions: 50 per cent of 2019 emissions.

Accordingly, the forecast of particulate matter 2.5 (PM-2.5) in the event of additional firecracker emission indicates very poor quality of air on November 5. The PM2.5 level is indicated to be 123 ug/m3 whereas, in the absence of firecrackers, it will be at 77 ug/m3.

According to the National Ambient Air Quality Standards, PM 2.5 levels below 60 ug/m3 are satisfactory; air quality is termed as good when the level is below 30 ug/m3. “In a scenario where no firecrackers are burst, the air quality levels will remain in the moderate category during the entire period until November 6,” Beig further said.

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The most polluted areas on November 5 are likely to be Shivajinagar and Bhosari. According to the forecast, the “hot spot hours” include the early morning hours of Nov 5, between 1 am and 6 am.

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Anuradha Mascarenhas

Anuradha Mascarenhas is a Senior Editor at The Indian Express, based in Pune. With a career spanning three decades, she is one of the most respected voices in Indian journalism regarding healthcare, science and environment and research developments. She also takes a keen interest in covering women's issues . Professional Background Education: A gold medalist in Communication and Journalism from Savitribai Phule Pune University and a Master’s degree in Literature. Author: She authored the biography At The Wheel Of Research, which chronicles the life and work of Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, the former Chief Scientist at the WHO. Key Focus: She combines scientific accuracy with storytelling, translating complex medical research into compelling public and human-interest narratives. Awards and Recognition Anuradha has won several awards including the Press Council of India's national award for excellence in journalism under the gender based reporting category in 2019 and the Laadli Media award (gender sensitivity -2024). A recipient of the Lokmat journalism award (gender category-2022), she was also shortlisted for the RedInk awards for excellence in journalism-2021. Her debut book At The Wheel Of Research, an exclusive biography of Dr Soumya Swaminathan the inaugural chief scientist of World Health Organisation was also nominated in the Popular Choice Category of JK Paper AUTHER awards. She has also secured competitive fellowships including the Laadli Media Fellowship (2022), the Survivors Against TB – New Research in TB Media Fellowship (2023) and is part of the prestigious 2025 India Cohort of the WomenLift Health Leadership Journey.” Recent Notable Articles (Late 2025) 1. Cancer & Specialized Medical Care "Tata Memorial finds way to kill drug-resistant cancer cells" (Nov 26, 2025): Reporting on a breakthrough for triple-negative breast cancer, one of the most aggressive forms of the disease. Discipline, diet and purpose; How a 97-year-old professor defies ageing'' (Nov 15, 2025) Report about Prof Gururaj Mutalik, the first Head of Department at Pune's B J Government Medical College who at 97 credits his longevity to healthy habits and a strong sense of purpose. 2. Environmental Health (The "Breathless Pune" Series) Long-term exposure even to 'moderate' air leads to chronic heart, lung, kidney issues" (Nov 26, 2025): Part of an investigative series highlighting that even "safe" pollution levels are damaging to vital organs. "For every 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 level, there was 6-8% jump in medicine sales" (Nov 23, 2025): Using commercial data to prove the direct link between air quality and respiratory illnesses in Pune. 3. Lifestyle & Wellness News "They didn't let cancer, diabetes and heart disease stop them from travelling" (Dec 22, 2025): A collaborative piece featuring survivors who share practical tips for traveling with chronic conditions. At 17, his BP shot up to 200/120 mmHG; Lancet study flags why child and teen hypertension doubled between 2000 and 2020'' (Nov 12,2025)--A report that focusses on 17-year-old-boy's hypertensive crisis and reflects the rising global trend of high blood pressure among children and adolescents. 4. Scientific Recognition & Infrastructure For promoting sci-comm, gender diversity: IUCAA woman prof highlighted in Nature" (Nov 25, 2025): Covering the global recognition of Indian women scientists in gender studies and physics. Pune researchers find a spiral galaxy like the Milky Way from early universe'' (December 3, 2025)- A report on how Indian researchers discovered a massive galaxy that existed when the universe was just 1.5 billion years old , one of the earliest to have been observed so far. Signature Beat: Health, Science & Women in Leadership Anuradha is known for her COVID-19 reportage, where she was one of the first journalists to provide detailed insights into the Covishield and Covaxin trials. She has a dedicated interest in gender diversity in health and science, often profiling women researchers who are breaking the "leaky pipeline" in STEM fields. Her writing style is scrupulous, often featuring interviews with top-tier scientists and health experts from various institutions. ... Read More

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