Shinde faction, MVA on tenterhooks as they await verdict with bated breath

While the Balasahebanchi Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde has started showing signs of ‘nervous excitement’, BJP is keeping fingers crossed and hoping that the apex court will deliver a verdict in favour of the current dispensation in Maharashtra.

The deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis said, “ We had done everything (government formation) in accordance with law. We have done nothing wrong and therefore hopeful.” Fadnavis further stated, “ I can state with certainty that Eknath Shinde will continue as the CM. And the 2024 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections will be contested under his leadership in Maharashtra.”

Based on the SC verdict, there can be multiple possibilities that are being voiced within the power corridors and the legal circles in Maharashtra.

The first possibility is that if the Supreme Court disqualifies 16 MLAs, including CM Eknath Shinde, he would have to resign immediately and it will set in motion the process for a new government.

Given the current strength in the Legislative Assembly, the BJP, with 105 MLAs, will be in position to provide a credible alternative.

However, it will have to get the requisite 145 out of the 288 seats in the Assembly to form the government and stake claim to the Chief Minister’s post.

In July last year, when Eknath Shinde sought vote trust on the floor of the Legislative Assembly, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance got the support of 164 out of the total 288 MLAs. The ruling parties easily crossed the half-way mark of 145 required to form the government.

Senior BJP minister Sudhir Mungantiwar said, “We don’t see any impact on our government. We have the requisite numbers. Moreover the decision to disqualify elected members rests with the Speaker of the Legislative Assembly.”

The second possibility is that if the SC does not disqualify the 16 MLAs and instead refers the matter to the Speaker in the Legislative Assembly, there will be status quo. Eknath Shinde will continue as CM leading the BJP-Shiv Sena coalition. The state legislative assembly speaker Rahul Narwekar has indicated, “

The roles of judiciary and legislative assembly are well defined. The disqualification of elected member comes under Speaker.”

A third possibility is that the Supreme Court could refer the matter to a seven judges larger bench. In this scenario, the political situation in Maharashtra will remain unchanged.

The former CM Prithviraj Chavan said, “ Irrespective of the verdict my concern relates to the manner in which government was formed. It was unethical. It raises the question mark on anti-defection laws which has failed and needs to be relooked. The parliament will have to rework on these laws.”

The Maha Vikas Aghadi—the Congress, NCP and the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) combine—is also waiting for the Supreme Court’s decision, based on which it will decide it’s next course of action.

While BJP leaders admitted that the disqualification, if it actually happens, would be an embarrassment, they believe that they “will sail smoothly.” The indication of the BJP retaining power got even more consolidated after Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, while addressing party workers in Kolhapur two days ago, said, “I will be back soon.”

Fadnavis reiterating the popular catchphrase “mi punha yein” ( I will return again) made before the 2019 Assembly elections had caught public imagination. It indicated that Fadnavis was confident that he would return to power as CM. Although he was forced to settle for the deputy CM’s post, his “I will be back soon” remark has left many guessing as to what lies ahead for Maharashtra politics.

Another theory making rounds is that all is not well in the NCP.

Although former NCP president Sharad Pawar may have diffused unrest and intra-party power tussle for now, Ajit Pawar-led faction vying to return to power cannot be ruled out totally.

A BJP leader, who is a member of the party’s core team in Maharashtra, said, “In politics, there is no full stop. If Shinde, along with 15 MLAs, is disqualified, it will pave the way for new permutation and combination in the state. The BJP will explore all options to consolidate itself keeping in mind the crucial 2024 Lok Sabha elections.”

Shiv Sena (UBT) president Uddhav Thackeray has predicted the downfall of the Shinde government. “Those who betrayed us will soon be shown their place. The BJP- Shiv Sena ( Shinde faction) will not last long,” said Thackeray.

Uddhav Thackeray is unlikely to forget and forgive Eknath Shinde, who orchestrated the defections and led to the split of the Shiv Sena.

The Operation Lotus, spearheaded by the BJP, helped Shinde to take with him 40 out of the 56 MLAs from the parent party. In Lok Sabha, 12 of the 18 MPs have joined the Shinde faction. The revolt brought down the MVA government in June last year and paved the way for Shinde to become the CM.

Uddhav Thackeray, who challenged the defections within the Shiv Sena, believes that the Supreme Court will do justice even as former NCP supremo Sharad Pawar is of the opinion that the verdict of the apex court will hardly have any impact on the ruling Maharashtra government.

Sharad Pawar, who was in his bastion Baramati on Sunday, said, “Even if the Supreme Court upholds disqualification of 16 MLAs, including CM Shinde, it will not have much impact as the BJP-Shiv Sena have the required numbers to retain the government.”

The larger question which Congress has raised is regarding morality.

As Congress chief Nana Patole argued, “If the CM himself is disqualified, the government will fall.”

Some within MVA have gone to the extent saying, “ If SC were to disqualify 16 MLAs, it would amount to upholding the MVA government lead by Uddhav Thackeray.” However, what remains unexplained is Thackeray suo moto resigned as CM after split in his party on June 19, 2022.