Exit polls vs actual polls: See who got it right and how

Uttar Pradesh

The BJP has registered an astounding victory in Uttar Pradesh winning 324 seats in the 403-member state Assembly pushing the SP-Congress alliance and the BSP to distant second and third positions.

While no polling agency was able to successfully gauge the BJP’s seat-count, News24-Chanakya, that had correctly predicted the BJP’s victory in 2014, was the only one that came the closest. It gave the BJP+ alliance 285 seats, the SP+ alliance 88 seats and BSP 27 seats. The actual results today show SP+ getting 54 seats and BSP 19 seats.

All the other agencies predicted the BJP would be the single largest party, but nowhere close to the 324-seat mark.

Uttarakhand

Chanakya-News24 was again the closest to predicting the result in Uttarakhand. It projected 53 seats for BJP and 15 for the Congress. The actual results have BJP winning in 57 seats and Congress in 11. Axis-India Today poll also gave similar projections for the BJP and the Congress. Both the C-Voter and the MRC polls were way off the mark with their projections.

Punjab

In Punjab, where the Congress is winning in 77 seats, none of the agencies were able to accurately project numbers for the Aam Aadmi Party that suffered defeat. While the Axis-India Today poll gave closest prediction for Congress (62-71), it was way off the mark for the AAP. The party was able to return only 20 MLAs when it was projected to win 42-51 seats.

All the agencies gave the AAP upwards of 40 seats when it won only 20 seats. However, they were correct about the predictions for SAD-BJP alliance which suffered heavily after ten years in power. The Akali-BJP alliance won 18 seats.

Goa

The coastal state of Goa presents a hung verdict with the Congress having the better chances to form a government. While the half-way mark was 21 seats, the Congress has won 19 seats and the BJP 14 seats. The MGP has won 3 seats and Independents 4 seats. The C-Voter poll gave BJP 15-21 seats, the Congress 12-18 seats and AAP 0-4 seats. The MRC poll gave BJP 15 seats, AAP 7 seats and Congress 10 seats.

Manipur

Manipur is another state where no party crossed the half-way mark. The Congress, which was in power in the state for 15 years, returned poor numbers by winning 26 seats, down from 42 seats in 2012. The BJP has made rapid inroads winning 21 seats compared to zero last time. The NPF, that won 4 seats, and Independents are the kingmakers who will decide who forms the government in the state. The C-Voter-India TV poll was the closest giving the BJP 25-31 seats, Congress 17-23 seats.