The BSP and BJP are modifying their campaign strategies to suit the changing political situation in the poll-bound state after Samajwadi Party and Congress announced their alliance, a move that is likely to impact most of the 140 seats in western UP which has a sizeable Muslim population voting on February 11 and 15. The BSP, which has fielded as many as 50 Muslim candidates in the first two phases, is facing increasing pressure to woo the minority community, with the Congress-SP alliance being perceived as the easier choice. The SP has fielded Muslims on 42 of the 140 western UP seats. In 28 seats in the first two phases, both BSP and SP have fielded Muslim candidates. The Mayawati-led party, sources said, has therefore focused its message to the minority community on communal violence that occurred during SP rule and is promising a “riot-free” environment if it comes to power. Meanwhile, the BJP, its leaders in western UP said, is confident of polarisation of Hindus in reaction to the possible consolidation of Muslims behind the SP-Congress alliance. “Our message is clear. Muslims suffered communal riots during the governments of SP as well as Congress. The BSP government alone can provide a communally safe atmosphere. The minority community relied on Congress for nearly 50 years and on SP for more than two decades. But both parties cheated them. Now they have an option of testing BSP,” said a party coordinator in Aligarh. However, BSP functionaries in western UP privately admitted that Muslims have been associating themselves with the SP more aggressively in a communally disturbed atmosphere as BSP is often seen as a “neutral bystander” in such situations. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BSP was relegated to the third position in seats like Saharanpur — where Congress leader Imran Masood had emerged second because of overwhelming Muslim support — as well as Kairana, Sambhal, Moradabad and Bijnor, where SP consolidated its support among Muslims. Moreover, the SP rank and file in divisions of Saharanpur, Meerut and Moradabad largely consists of Muslims because the region has a very small population of Yadavs, the party’s support base in other parts of the state. “Muslims have been hurt because no Muslim won in the Lok Sabha elections. This time, they will vote for the strongest Muslim candidate in their seat,” said a BSP leader in Bulandshahr. The BSP, sources said, is also going to strongly deliver its accusations that SP is hand-in-glove with BJP, using remarks Ram Gopal and Shivpal had made against each other during the Yadav family feud. The BJP, on the other hand, is expecting a consolidation of Hindu votes in a situation similar to the 2012 elections, when it had emerged victorious in seats like Kairana, Saharanpur Nagar, Thana Bhawan, Bijnor and Noorpur as the votes were divided between two Muslim candidates from BSP, SP or Congress. “It is true that Muslims are least likely to vote for BJP. But once the campaign picks up in a few days, the Hindus will also get consolidated. It has to happen. People may say there has been time since Muzaffarnagar riots, but people have not forgotten. Many are still lodged in jails,” said a BJP leader from Kairana. However, the leader added that the election would get “tougher” for BJP candidates if Hindu votes are divided. The other concern for party leaders say is that the counter-polarisation may not work in seats where no mainstream party has fielded Muslims, or there is a non-BJP Hindu candidate in a strong position. This is likely to be the case in a majority of seats, since there are as many as 110 seats where both BJP and the SP-Congress alliance have fielded a Hindu candidate.
