Poll Analysis: In Punjab, a curious case of missing first time voters

Punjab had a projected population of 9.30 lakh in the age group 18-19 years, but could register only 3.48 lakh or 38 per cent as first time voters ahead of the Assembly polls. In absolute numbers, the figure is nearly 46,000 less than the 3,94,780 first time voters state had registered ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha polls and over 18,000 less than the number (3,67,077) registered ahead 2017 Punjab Vidhan Sabha elections.

Data procured from across Punjab revealed that six out of 23 districts recorded less than 50 per cent polling by the registered first time voters. Only three districts recorded 70 or more polling by first timers.

The lowest polling by first timers, at 32 per cent, took place in Mohali, followed by Tarn Taran (38.4 per cent). Gurdaspur, Kapurthala, Amritsar and Jalandhar also witnessed low turnout with 46.7 per cent, 47 per cent, 47.2 per cent and 47.5 per cent voting by first timers, respectively,

Pathankot recorded 50.7 per cent, Patiala 50.9 per cent, Ferozepur 54.9 per cent and Ludhiana 57 per cent polling by the first timers.

Ten district recorded 60 per cent or more turnout by first timers. They include Moga (63 per cent), Mansa (63.9 per cent), Bathinda and Malerkotla (64 per cent), Barnala (65.4 per cent), Nawanshahr (66.1 per cent), Hoshiarpur (66.7 per cent), Faridkot (67.3 per cent), Ropar (68.7 per cent), and Sangrur (68.9 per cent).

Only three districts recorded 70 per cent or more polling by first timers — Fazilka (70.8 per cent), Muktsar Sahib (71.8 per cent) and Fatehgarh Sahib (74.6 per cent).

As political parties ponder over the low turnout of the young voters, experts blame it on students, who got their names registered in electoral rolls, shifting out of district, state or country for higher studies. Many first time voters have also shifted out in search of jobs. And many who are still Punjab and in the eligible age group do not have much interest in getting enrolled as voters as their main interest is in shifting abroad for higher studies and employment.

Prof Gian Singh, a retired professor of economics, who was part of tram that conducted a study on ‘socio-economic and demographic analysis of international migration from rural Punjab’, said the exodus of students from Punjab never stopped and post pandemic, it will only increase due to the income loss, primarily in the agriculture sector, in the state.

Incidentally, even the political parties have been giving airs to the foreign dreams of the youngsters. Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi, who is also Congress’s CM face, promising that if voted back to power, his government will provide interest free loans to youths for going abroad, along with free coaching for IELTS, TOEFL and PTE. The Aam Aadmi Party too has announced to fund the study abroad for Dalit and poor students of the state.

Where are these missing young voters

After the low registration as against the projected number of first time voters, Punjab’s Chief Electoral Officer S Karuna on January 21, when this data was released, had said that he had written to the Ministry of External Affairs to get the data about students from state who have gone abroad on study basis to get them enrolled as voters.

According to the data procured from the immigration consultancies, in two years — 2019 and 2020 — nearly 2.37 lakh youngsters in the age group 18-20 years moved to various countries on student visa. They said in 2021, over a lakh applied for the student visa.

Ludhiana-based Can-Able Immigration Consultants informed that around 1.40 lakh study permits for Indian students were issued by Canada in 2019, and 85,700 in 2020 despite Covid-19 pandemic. They said the final figures for 2021 are yet to be released. The figure is expected to be much higher considering a huge backlog of applications. So, in just two years, over 2.25 lakh Indian students got study permits from Canada only, out of which 1.35 lakh to 1.57 lakh were from Punjab.

The consultancy officials said that there is a huge backlog of applications, and Canadian authorities are still clearing it.

Director of the consultancy, Khilandeep Singh, further informed that the UK, which had relaxed norms even when Covid was at its peak, allowed in over 87,000 students from India, including 50,076 in 2020 and 37,000 in 2019. Of these, around 61,000 (70 per cent) were from Punjab.

Likewise, Australia granted visa to 23,354 students, and the USA 14,971, in 2020. Majority of the applicants were from Punjab, informed the consultancy.

Gurpreet Singh, of Kapurthala-based i-Can Consultancy said that from September 2020 to September 2021, there was a 197 per cent jump in issuance of students visas by the UK as compared to the pre pandemic year of 2019.