Next on AAP’s radar: Gujarat and Himachal

Following Thursday’s spectacular win in Punjab, which pitchforked the party on to the national stage, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh now figure prominently on AAP’s radar, senior leaders told The Indian Express.

In Gujarat, where elections are expected this year-end, the party is already on campaign mode as it seeks to capitalise on its moment in history by filling the space vacated by a diminishing Congress. Next month, Kejriwal and Punjab’s Chief Minister-designate Bhagwant Mann are expected to travel to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state to add muscle to AAP’s campaign.

“As of now, we are not saying we will surely win Gujarat. But something has changed in the state after Modi’s elevation, which manifested in the form of the Patidar agitation, Una agitation and Congress’ impressive show in 2017. But now, the Congress has capitulated, leaving the field open for the AAP. The AAP has already made some dents in the Patel belt of Surat by winning 27 seats in the civic body polls… the party has gained a foothold in the Saurashtra belt,” a party functionary said.

In Delhi, it was the Congress voter that shifted to AAP. Whenever the Congress performs relatively well, as it did in the municipal polls in 2017, the AAP suffers. This is why AAP sees a window in Himachal Pradesh, which goes to vote before Gujarat.

“The win in Punjab opens doors for us in other states. In a state like Himachal Pradesh, we see an opening as the Punjab results make our campaign more credible. However, a lot of work remains to be done on the ground. The politics of the hill state is a complex mix of caste and regional mathematics,” said a party leader.

On the party’s immediate agenda, is the Rajya Sabha nominations from Punjab. Its choices for the Upper House in Delhi in 2018 — businessman Sushil Gupta and chartered accountant N D Gupta — had faced backlash over the preference for “outsiders” over senior party leaders.

“Ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the party hosted joint rallies of the Opposition. But over time, we have realised that most parties just want to defeat the BJP. We believe that will not happen until an alternative vision is offered to the people. Coming together for the sake of defeating the BJP with no real vision will not work. Our focus will primarily be on offering that vision,” said a senior AAP leader.

AAP’s national ambition is not new. Months after it won 28 seats in Delhi in 2013, it decided to contest from 400 seats in the Lok Sabha polls of 2014. It had won four seats — all of them in Punjab. The party then recalibrated its expectations and decided to focus on Delhi, where it won with a thumping majority in 2015. In 2019, it fielded just 100 Lok Sabha candidates.

“With the 2014 polls, we made our national ambition clear, but it was not backed by performance. The difference between then and now is that we now have proof of concept. We have shown the people that AAP can win and work. The Punjab verdict is proof that people are now ready to trust us,” said a senior party leader.

“Clean, efficient, with a proven track record in governance, yet quintessential outsiders taking on the combined might of the establishment” — party leaders say that it is this formulation that will make AAP stand out.