In Uttar Pradesh, sharp fall in first-time voters, 18-29 age group

The fall in youth voters in UP coincided with a decline in the number of first-time voters by 17.95 per cent — from 24.25 lakh in 2017 to 19.89 lakh in 2022. This time they comprised 1.32 per cent of the total voters, compared to 1.72 per cent five years ago.

The analysis of age cohort wise elector data with the Election Commission suggests that per constituency, the average number of voters in the 18-29 age group fell by 15,205. In the 2017 Assembly elections, the average winning margin per seat was 29,505 votes.

The decline in young voters in UP follows a trend earlier seen in poll states like Jharkhand, Bihar and West Bengal. In Jharkhand, the number of young voters declined by 14.03 per cent between 2014 and 2019; in Bihar by 12.48 per cent between 2015 and 2020; and in West Bengal by 1.3 per cent between 2016 and 2021.

The maximum increase among voters in UP was in the 30-39 age group – by 57.15 lakh, or 16.39 per cent, from 3.48 crore in 2017 to 4.06 crore in 2022. It took the group’s share in total voters from 24.69 per cent to 27.01 per cent, making it the biggest chunk.

In contrast, the 20-29 age group saw the biggest decline – by 56.92 lakh, or 14.92 per cent, from 3.81 crore in 2017 to 3.24 crore in 2022. Incidentally, it was this age group that formed the biggest chunk of all voters (27.02 per cent) in 2017. This time, the 20- to 29-year-olds formed 21.60 per cent of the electorate.
Another age group that saw a big jump in the number of voters was 50-59 – with the electorate expanding by 37.41 lakh, or 19.71 per cent, to 2.27 crore in 2022 from 1.89 crore in 2017.

The number of voters in the other age groups (40-49; 60-69; 70-79; and 80+) also increased, between 6.29 per cent and 25.23 per cent, in the last five years.

The sharp drop in the number of voters aged below 29 is significant because the unemployment rate among youths in UP is higher than the national average. As per the Periodic Labour Force Survey brought out by the National Statistical Office, the unemployment rate (based on current weekly status) in the age group 15-29 stood at 23.2 per cent in urban areas of UP during the January-March quarter of financial year 2021 against 21.8 per cent in the same quarter of 2020.

This was much higher than the overall unemployment figure – 10.6 per cent — for urban areas during the January-March quarter of 2021.