From demonetisation to Modi factor, four questions the elections results have answered

Uttar Pradesh was a battle for prestige for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He led the campaign in the state from the front, targeting Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav and the Samajwadi Party’s alliance with the Congress. During the last three days of campaigning, PM Modi and a cavalcade of Central ministers stationed themselves in Varanasi, the PM’s Lok Sabha constituency. He led the roadshows like a rockstar reveling in the company of fans and supporters. Despite initial hiccups over ticket distribution, Modi’s charisma seems to have kept the party workers’ moral high. The BJP’s victory in the state is a vote for Modi. Cliched as it may sound, but the PM proved once again that when it comes to winning elections there is no match for him.

The PM was slammed by opposition parties and a section of economists for taking the decision on demonetisation unilaterally. (Express Photo)

Is demonetisation going to pull the BJP down?

When PM Modi decided to scrap high-value currency notes last November, many argued the move would sink BJP’s chances in the state polls. The sudden and surprise move left the country in a chaos of sorts. Long and serpentine queues outside banks and ATMs kept increasing over the course of three months. What compounded the misery was the RBI’s U turns on guidelines. The PM was slammed by opposition parties and a section of economists for taking the decision unilaterally. Though demonetisation may not have made economic sense, but electorally the move doesn’t seem to have any negative impact on the BJP’s prospects. It might even have worked to its benefit with the perception among some being that this is pro-poor.

BJP’s surge seems to have nullified the impact of the alliance and allaince with Congress does not seem to have benefitted the SP much. (PTI File Photo)

Will the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance work?

That answer is a clear no. Though Akhilesh emerged as a winner in his fight over the control of the Samajwadi Party, the election results are not what he would have wanted to see. The young chief minister rebelled against his father and the party was on the verge of a split. Like a seasoned politician, he held on his own and the state saw a political scion coming out of the shadows of his father. It soon followed the elections and he forged an alliance with the Congress. Together with Rahul Gandhi, Akhilesh held several rallies and roadshows at many cities. But the BJP’s surge seems to have nullified the impact of the alliance and allaince with Congress does not seem to have benefitted the SP much.

Will anti-incumbency be the big factor in all the states?

The verdict in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand is clear and the ruling parties are being voted out. If there is someone who is withstanding the power of anti-incumbency, it is Ikra Ibobi Singh in Manipur. In Punjab, the Akali-BJP combine was facing massive criticism for its poor performance in the last ten years. There were allegations of corruption and the government’s alleged inability to fight the drug menace. The exit polls had also not given any chance to the party. But there is a silver lining for the party here. They have not done so bad after all. And far as UP is concerned, the results have come as a setback for Akhilesh who was trying to establish himself as the sole leader of the Samajwadi Party. Harish Rawat’s Congress has been routed in Uttarakhand where the BJP is headed for a massive win.