Chhattisgarh Exit Poll Result 2023 Highlights: Will form govt with full majority, says CM Baghel as pollsters predict Cong edge

Exit polls aired by major television networks Thursday predicted that the Congress could retain power in Chhattisgarh and oust the BRS from government in Telangana. The polls differed on the outcome in crucial Hindi heartland states Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh and predicted that the north-eastern state of Mizoram could be headed for a hung Assembly.

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VIDEO | "Let the exit polls run, we will form the government with full majority," says Chhattisgarh CM @bhupeshbaghel on exit polls. #ChhattisgarhElection2023 #AssemblyElectionsWithPTI

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— Press Trust of India (@PTI_News) November 30, 2023

VIDEO | Exit polls are showing that the BJP will garner around 48 seats but I believe it will garner around 52-55 seats," says BJP leader and former Chhattisgarh CM Raman Singh on exit polls.

(Full video is available on PTI Videos - https://t.co/n147TvqRQz) pic.twitter.com/p6vzFAah5A

— Press Trust of India (@PTI_News) November 30, 2023

Chhattisgarh deputy Chief Minister T S Singh Deo said he takes exit polls results with a pinch of salt and the Congress will retain power in the state. The party high command's choice for the chief minister's post would be acceptable to all, he told PTI in Delhi. Singh Deo was in contention for the CM's post in 2018 though it was Bhupesh Baghel who ultimately got the top post.

"As far as projections are concerned, I always take them with a pinch of salt. They are attempts by various news channels and agencies to guess what may have happened in elections. We should wait for the 3rd (of December)," Singh Deo told PTI.

“In Madhya Pradesh, a Congress government should be coming (to power). In Rajasthan, we are very much there. Because it has been a traditional in-and-out format (in Rajasthan), five years one party, next five years another party, so that is the only hesitation (while predicting the party's victory),” he said.

Most exit polls predicted an edge to the Congress in Chhattisgarh and Telangana while forecasting that it was advantage BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Pollsters also indicated that in Mizoram, Zoram People's Movement (ZPM) was locked in a close race with the Mizo National Front (MNF) with the Congress and the BJP lagging behind.

Madhya Pradesh: While Jan Ki Baat exit poll predicted that the BJP would get 100-123 seats and the Congress 102-125, Republic TV-Matrize forecast 118-130 seats for the BJP and 97-107 for the Congress.TV9 Bharatvarsh Polstrat said the BJP would get 106-116 and the Congress would get 111-121. Today's Chanakya, however, predicted a massive victory for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, forecasting that the BJP would get 151 (plus minus 12 seats) and the Congress 74 (plus minus 12 seats). Jist-TIF-NAI said the Congress was enjoying 2018-like edge in Madhya Pradesh, predicting 107-124 seats for the party as against the BJP's 102-119.

Rajasthan: India Today-Axis My India forecast a tight race, predicting 86-106 seats for the Congress, 80-100 seats for the BJP and others 9-18. Jan Ki Baat pollsters forecast that the BJP would get 100-122 and 62-85 for the Congress, TV9 Bharatvarsh Polstrat predicted 100-110 for the BJP and 90-100 for the Congress. Times Now ETG poll predicts 108-128 seats for the BJP and 56-72 for the Congress in Rajasthan. Jist-TIF-NAI predicted that in Rajasthan there would be continuation of the state's revolving door tradition, forecasting 110 seats for the BJP and the Congress 70.

Chhattisgarh: While ABP News-C Voter predicted 36-48 seats for the BJP and 41-53 for the Congress, India Today-Axis My India forecast 36-46 seats for the BJP and 40-50 seats for the Congress. India TV-CNX forecast 30-40 seats for the BJP and 46-56 seats for the Congress. According to Jan Ki Baat, the BJP would get 34-45 and the Congress would get 42-53. Today's Chanakya predicted that the BJP would get 33 seats (plus-minus 8 seats) and the Congress would bag a clear majority 57 seats (plus-minus 8).

Telangana: While India TV-CNX forecast 63-79 seats for the Congress, 31-47 for the BRS, 2-4 for the BJP and 5-7 for the AIMIM, Jan Ki Baat forecast that the Congress would get 48-64 seats, the BRS would get 40-55, BJP 7-13 and AIMIM 4-7. Republic TV-Matrize predicted that in Telangana, the Congress would get 58-68 seats, BRS 46-56, BJP 4-9 and AIMIM 5-9. TV9 Bharatvarsh Polstrat stated that the Congress would get 49-59 seats and the BRS would get 48-58.

Mizoram: While India TV-CNX said the MNF would get 14-18, ZPM 12-16, Congress 8-10 and BJP 0-2, ABP News-C Voter said MNF would get 15-21, ZPM 12-18 and Congress 2-8. Jan Ki Baat said the MNF would get 10-14 seats, ZPM 15-25 seats, Congress 5-9 and the BJP 0-2.

Between now and Sunday, when the results come for the Assembly elections to five states, a lot of the analysis will be centred on the exit polls whose data was released Thursday evening. But experience shows that there is no guarantee of accuracy when it comes to exit polls — which are as likely as to be accurate as wildly off the mark.

In the 2018 Assembly polls, the averages of the selected exit polls here were off by only a handful of seats in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, but their predictions were inaccurate by a considerable margin for Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram.

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Today's Chanakya has predicted that the BJP will bag 33 ± 8 seats while Congress will win in 57 ± 8 seats.

BJP: 30-40
Congress: 46-56
Others: 3-5

In Chhattisgarh, the India Today-Axis My India Exit Poll indicates that 43 percent of male voters and 41 percent of female voters favoured the Congress. However, 39 percent of male voters and 43 percent of female voters chose the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state.

The survey also revealed that 6 percent of both male and female voters cast their votes in favour of Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

ABP-CVoter has predicted a neck-to-neck contest, with 47 seats in Congress' kitty and 42 seats for the BJP.

In the 2018 Assembly elections, the Congress secured a vote share of 43.04 percent. The BJP bagged 15 seats and a vote share of 32.97 percent. Meanwhile, the Bahujan Samaj Party won two seats with a vote share of 3.87 percent, while the Janta Congress won five seats with a vote share of 7.61 percent.

With results of the five assembly polls to come in Sunday, a reminder might be useful of some of the political things that will remain standing, irrespective of who wins and who loses.

By all accounts, at the national level, the Narendra Modi-led BJP has been adding layers to its appeal ever since its 2014 victory. But no matter what the final scoreboard says, this round of assembly elections points to at least one critical area of subtraction, and underlines a key BJP challenge: The agility and inventiveness that it has shown towards maintaining its dominance at the Centre is not matched in the states by the party. It is arguably an acknowledgement of this reality that has contributed to its strategy of making even the state election a referendum on the performance of the government led by Modi.

Vandita Mishra writes...

As the poll fever for the five Assembly elections winds down – even though both Rajasthan and Telengana have become unexpectedly exciting, with the Congress putting up a fight – it’s time to capture some broad trends.

What is striking are the areas where a consensus is now developing across parties, and one of them is the need to provide social welfarism – call it freebies, doles, handouts, what you will – as part of a safety net. The Congress and BJP are vying with each other to promise – and mount – new welfare schemes.

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A farm loan waiver, Rs 15,000 to women every year, subsidies on gas cylinders, Rs 10,000 for landless labourers, higher price for procurement of paddy and tendu leaves, implementation of the Old Pension Scheme (OPS)… and other schemes. As political parties across election states open their goodie bags, the example of Chhattisgarh shows the hole that the state exchequers could be looking at.

At present, the Chhattisgarh government owes collectively Rs 89,000 crore, with an interest of Rs 6,000 crore annually, as per financial estimates.

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In a video that went viral on Monday, Congress workers in Madhya Pradesh’s Balaghat were seen confronting election officials for opening the strong room where postal ballots had been stored, raising questions about the security of the ballots and electronic voting machines (EVMs).

• What are postal ballots, and where does the EVM journey start?
• Where are EVMs stored after votes are cast?
• What is the procedure for postal ballots, absentee voters?

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In the 2018 assembly polls, the Congress had won 51 of these 70 constituencies, while the BJP could bag only 13. The Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (J) had won four seats and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) two. The Congress later won one more seat in a bypoll.

While the main fight is between bitter rivals BJP and the Congress, a three-way contest is on the cards in several seats of the Bilaspur division where former CM Ajit Jogi’s party and the BSP have pockets of influence. The Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP has also been focusing on seats in the division.

The political fate of a total of 958 candidates – 827 men, 130 women and one transgender person – contesting 70 seats spread across 22 districts, was locked in EVMs.

As many as 1,63,14,479 voters – 81,41,624 men, 81,72,171 women and 684 of third gender – were eligible to exercise their franchise at 18,833 polling booths in Chhattisgarh.

A voter turnout of 68.15 percent was recorded in the second phase of Chhattisgarh assembly elections for 70 constituencies on November 17, where voting was held under a thick security blanket of police and paramilitary personnel. The first phase of elections for 20 seats in the Naxal-affected state, which has a 90-member assembly, was held on November 7 and saw a high voter turnout of 78 percent.

In the 2018 assembly polls, a voter turnout of 76.62 per cent was recorded on 72 seats in the second phase. This time, two of these constituencies were covered in the first phase of polling held on November 7.

BJP: 34-45
Congress: 42-53

As per TV5 News' early predictions, here are the number of seats each party will bag:

BJP: 29-39
Congress: 54-66

Early exit polls predict a lead for the Congress in Chhattisgarh: Here are the figures:

Axis My India Exit Poll predictions

BJP: 36-46
Congress 40-50

How does the common man judge which exit poll is most reliable? Rely on the one whose numbers you like the most and dismiss the one whose numbers you dislike? Today, some even judge the accuracy of an exit poll by looking at the survey agency that conducted the poll, or by looking at the television channel that commissioned the poll. Some others make a judgment from the sample size — a commonly shared notion is that the bigger the sample size, the more reliable should be the exit poll.

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A voter turnout of 68.15 percent was recorded in the second phase of Chhattisgarh assembly elections for 70 constituencies on November 17, where voting was held under a thick security blanket of police and paramilitary personnel.

The first phase of elections for 20 seats in the Naxal-affected state, which has a 90-member assembly, was held on November 7 and saw a high voter turnout of 78 percent.

Exit polls predict tight race between Congress and BJP in #Chhattisgarh

Chhattisgarh has a 90-seat assembly with a majority mark of 46

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— The Indian Express (@IndianExpress) December 7, 2018