The average winning margin of the Congress and the BJP have increased, while that of JD(S) has declined. An analysis of election result data shows that the overall average winning margin across 224 seats has increased from 18,337 votes in 2018 to 20,944 votes in 2023. The average winning margin for the Congress went up from 15,781 votes five year ago to 22,217 votes this time. This year, the Congress’s average winning margin was higher against the BJP (22,152 votes) than the JD(S) (21,510 votes) in seats where it was in direct contest against either of the two rivals. The BJP, which faced a debacle, has also recorded an increase in its average winning margin — up from 18,960 votes in 2018 to 20,334 this time. The saffron party's average winning margin against Congress and JD(S) — where candidates of either of the two parties finished second — was recorded at 21,766 votes and 7,292 votes, respectively. While the average winning margin of both national parties increased, the JD(S), which has been a strong regional force in the state over the last two decades, saw a decline. The average winning margin of the JD(S) this time is 14,633 votes — down from 22,775 votes in 2018. In 2023, the lowest victory margin was recorded in Gandhi Nagar constituency, where Congress candidate Dinesh Gundu Rao defeated BJP’s Sapthagiri Gowdaar by just 105 votes. The highest victory margin was recorded in the Kanakapura Assembly segment, where Congress’s D K Shivakumar defeated B Nagaraju of the JD(S) by a margin of 1,22,392. Seven other constituencies — Sringeri, Malur, Jayanagar, Kumta, Mudigere, Chincholi and Jagalur — were decided by a margin below 1,000 votes. Five seats — Bidar South, Hadagalli, Homnabad, Nargund and Mandya — were decided by a margin between 1,001 and 2,000 votes. Of the remaining seats, 59 were decided by a margin between 2001 and 10,000 votes; 58 seats by a margin between 10,001 and 20,000 votes; 66 seats by a margin between 20,001 and 40,000 votes; and 28 seats by a margin between 40,001 and 1 lakh votes. Only one seat saw the average winning margin of over 1 lakh votes.
