How Pakistan PM Imran Khan could soon lose power

TRANSCRIPT

Shashank Bhargava: Hi, I’m Shashank Bharagava, and you are listening to 3 Things The Indian Express news show. For the past few weeks, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s future has been increasingly uncertain. Opposition parties in the country are against him. His party’s alliance partners have backed away from him. And more importantly, it seems that the Pakistan army as well no longer wants him in his position. On the third of April, that is Sunday, there is going to be a no confidence motion against him, which he is very likely to lose. Yesterday Imran Khan addressed the nation and said that he will play it in the last ball and will come back stronger whatever the result may be.

Imran Khan: Maine struggle karke yahan pohancha.  Mujhe struggle karni aati hai. Mukabla karna aata hai. Main kissi surat isaazish ko kamiyaad nahi hone doonga. Mujhe logo ne – kissi ne kahan –  Imran Khanaap resign kar de. Main resign kar doon? Main jo, jo mere saath cricket khelte thhe wo saari duniya 20 saal jo main kheli hai, aakhri game tak main muqabla karta hun. Main kabhi haar zindagi main nahi maani. Main tho vote ka jo bhi result ho jaye abh dekhenge ki main tho uske baad aur tagda ho ke saamne aaonga. Jo bhi result.

Shashank Bhargava: In this episode we speak to Indian Express’s Nirupama Subramanian, who reports on South Asian Affairs for the paper about the reasons why Imran Khan finds himself in this position, what he is doing to fight back and the possible implications for India. So Nirupama, Imran Khan’s future as the Prime Minister is very uncertain — his party’s alliance partners have all backed away from it and he has also fallen out of favour with the army. So let’s talk about the army first. The army was the one that had backed him in the beginning. It was the one that got him into power. Why does it not want him to be in power now?

Nirupama Subramanian: Basically what has happened is that though the army supported him during the election, and it’s an open secret that they did that. They put together people who could join his party, they help them leave their parties and their original parties and join the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, which is Imran Khan’s party. They stitched together a coalition for him after the elections. So they did all this, they formed new parties even like the Balochistan Awami Party in Balochistan. So they even founded that. And what happened then was that it started off quite well. And Imran Khan always said that, “I have absolutely no differences with the Army. Army and I are on the same page.”

Imran Khan: Main aaj aapke samne eh raha hun, ki aaj Pakistan mein hamari Prime Minister, humari party, humari baaki political parties, humari fauj, humare saare irade ek page pe khade hain.

Shashank Bhargava: Yeah, and he was almost boasting about it because this would mean that Pakistan would now have a stable government.

Nirupama Subramanian: Yeah basically he said, “now this is a stable government because I have no issues with the army.” Previous dispensations, civilian dispensations like Nawaz Sharif or the PPP have always had tensions with the army. I mean, tensions have inbuilt into their terms in office, because they’ve always been mistrusted by the army. So there was nothing of the sort here. But so many things happened that change the same-page equation after a while. The smallest things are easy to suss out. One is that the Imran Khan government became very unpopular because he had promised the moon, he had promised, you know, a modern day Medina like a complete Islamic paradise where everybody would have enough to eat, they would earn enough, people would be educated, everybody would be healthy, or they’d have access to excellent health care. And none of this happened.

Imran Khan: Accountability shuru hogi mere se. Phir hogi mere waziron se. Phir hum neeche jayenge. Humne apni business community ke saath mil ke policies banani hai taki wealth creation ho. Jitna paise banega, utna mulk ameer hoga, utna humara tax zyaada ikattha hoga, utni hum naukriyan denge hum logon ko, upne naujawanon ko naukriyan denge. Main aapke saamne aaj yeh keh rahan hoon ki hum Pakistan ko aise chalayenge jo kabhi Pakistan pehle nahi chalaya gaya. Vo governance denge ki jo kabhi Pakistan mein pehle aisi governance nahi aayi.

Nirupama Subramanian: None of this happened and because the administration did not have the capacity to make it happen. Pakistan is dependent for finances on all outside powers. Sometimes grants from Saudi, Abu Dhabi, loans from China or they were making a lot of money for helping the US in its war in Afghanistan. So basically, it is completely financially dependent on foreign powers.

Shashank Bhargava: Yeah. And they’ve also had a lot of bailouts from the International Monetary Fund. Like only last month, the IMF released $1 billion from a bailout that Pakistan had secured in 2019. And out of the total package of $6 billion, Pakistan has now received half of that amount. So a lot of bailouts from the IMF.

Nirupama Subramanian: Yeah, they’ve had bailouts on the IMF. So the economics were not stable at all. And they could not find somebody who could repair it, just like that overnight. And then the pandemic struck when the pandemic struck, then things went south anyway, for everybody. And then for economies like this more so. And when Imran Khan started getting unpopular, the army was apprehensive that it should not get the blame for backing a guy who’s so unpopular because Pakistan Army, unlike the Myanmar army, and you know, in other hybrid arrangements, Myanmar army doesn’t care about the people, but it craves public approval, the Pakistan army,

Shashank Bhargava: And why does it do that? Why does it crave approval, unlike, as you mentioned, the Myanmar army

Nirupama Subramanian: Because it sees itself as the guardian of Pakistan’s ideology, it can only have the power it has, as long as people buy into its framing of this ideology, the way it projects this ideology, the way it projects itself as the guardian of the ideological frontiers of Pakistan.

Shashank Bhargava: Yeah, it’s almost as if the army doesn’t want to fall out of favour with the people it wants to be popular among them.

Nirupama Subramanian: Yeah which is why even when guy like Musharraf, he does a coup in Pakistan, he ousted Nawaz Sharif, in 1999, he fought an election, he held a referendum, of course, it was completely sham referendum, but he went through that process. And then he went through the process of setting up a government with something called the Kings party, which was hacked off from Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz Sharif Party and the Pakistan People’s Party so it was sort of a hodgepodge of all these people who were favourable to him. But I mean, it’s just an example to tell you why they do this. They they crave that legitimacy, because they really think that they are representative of the people of Pakistan. So the army did not want to get unpopular and there were rumblings. I mean, rumoured we can’t really figure this out, because what happens within the Pakistan army at the top level is very closely guarded. But I think at that point, they started getting a bit concerned that maybe they have backed the wrong horse. But even then, nothing much happened. I mean, they will opposition rallies. You remember that time when the three party alliance of the PPP PMLN and Maulana Fazlur Rahman, they were going across Pakistan holding these mammoth rallies, calling out Bajwa. So the army was concerned that it was getting a bad name.

Nawaz Sharif: Mere Pakistan ka gareeb marr raha hai. Bajwa sahab, jawab aapakao dena hoga, Agar gareeb ki roti das rupe ki ho gayi hai, Bajwa sahab, jawab aapko dena hoga.

Nirupama Subramanian: So I think the distancing act kind of began then but not really. But I think what really sealed it was when the Pakistan Army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa, he made a series of transfers. In ordinary times, these are routine transfers, and the would have been seen as that. But the transfer of the ISI chief who at that time was Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed to head the Peshawar core became a contentious issue, because Imran Khandid not sign off on the new person that Bajwa had chosen for that job.

Shashank Bhargava: And why did Imran Khannot sign off on that? Because otherwise, the whole idea had been that the army and Imran Khanwere on the same page. So why did Imran Khannot want this decision to take place?

Nirupama Subramanian: So, this is a little complicated. And I think the thing is that Imran had started seeing Faiz Hameed as the guarantor of another term in office for him. This man is somebody who will help me win the next election. And in a mutual sort of way, in a reciprocal sort of way. I think Faiz Hameed had started seeing Imran as a person who would guarantee him the army chiefs job, or at least this was the impression that they were giving, the two of them. The Army does not like somebody in the institution breaking ranks like that and getting close to a politician or a politician trying to cultivate one of their senior people. So when this happened, suspicions grew in the top echelons of the army that something was afoot, and they wanted to nip in the bud. And the only way they could nip it in the bud and it became obvious right then that Imran Khan’s days were numbered, that this government is not going to last because he has crossed a red line. And of course, he did many other things Faiz Hameed also did, Faiz Hameed, you know, at one point was considered a shoo in to be Bajwa’s successor, but he also made some mistakes along the way. I mean, he also started growing close to Imran Khan. So that’s on one side, but Imran Khanhimself made other mistakes like he was very close to President Trump, and he thought President Trump was going to deliver on the Kashmir issue with India. So Imran Khan’s proximity to Trump or perceived proximity to Trump did not then transfer itself to the next administration. So the next administration was not enamoured of Imran Khan.

Shashank Bhargava: Yeah, because the politics of Donald Trump is a polar opposite to that of Joe Biden.

Nirupama Subramanian: Yeah. So Biden, and Imran Khan, which is extraordinary. I mean, no new American president comes into office and doesn’t speak to the Pakistani Prime Minister for one and a half years. It’s never happened before. And especially you know, after 2001 Imran Khanand Biden have not had a phone call between them.

Shashank Bhargava: And does the army think that Imran Khanis the one to blame for it?

Nirupama Subramanian: So one thing is that, of course, the US lost interest in Pakistan after they left Afghanistan. And the other thing is Imran Khan’s whole attitude, that we are so important, they have to come to us. I think there was a little concern that he’s putting people off. And also I think there was a time when the army was very keen to repair relations with India. And this was very evident from Bajwa’s speech last year at something called Islamabad security dialogue, where he made this huge speech about how we care about geo-economics, the army mindset has changed. We are not into geopolitics, we geo-economics is what will bring us prosperity and peace in the region and connectivity. All these words were flung around

Bajwa: Dear partcipants, stable Indo-Pakistan relation is a key to unlock the untapped potential of South and Central Asia by ensuring connectivity between East and West Asia. The potential however, has forever remained hostage to the disputes and issues between two nuclear neighbours. How we feel the time is, it is time to bury the past and move forward. Our effort for peace in Afghanistan and responsible and mature behaviour and presses with situation with India manifest our desire to change the narrative of geopolitical contestation to Geo-economic integration.

Shashank Bhargava: Yeah, and one of the things that Pakistan wanted at that time was that it wanted to start trade with India.

Nirupama Subramanian: So they decided that they’re going to start with onions and cotton. And suddenly the government pulled the rug out of that plan. The cabinet said, No, we can’t have that. And then there was also Imran Khan’s very personal kind of invective against Modi, which didn’t go down I mean, which was making this whole thaw very impossible, it was be making more and more impossible. So although there was the two militaries came to an agreement about observing the ceasefire very diligently, and a ceasefire is from 2003. But it was not being observed at all. A lot of people are dying, dying on their side, and they’re dying on our side. So at that point, the armies came to an agreement in which the Pakistan government had very little role, even the backchannel process, which still appears to be ongoing, seems to have been not so much a creature of the civilian government of Imran Khan, but led by the security establishment on their side and led and by the security establishment, on our side. On our side, of course, the security establishment is subservient to the government on their side, it is not. So this is the stage for Imran Khan’s present situation. And the most important thing was that what I told you about Faiz Hameed about him trying to block the new appointment for ISI chief.

Shashank Bhargava: Right that and Imran Khangetting unpopular with people, Pakistan’s dialogue with United States worsening, and the Pakistan Army wanting to improve ties with India. So you have all these different factors going against Imran Khan? How are we seeing it all unfold in Pakistan’s politics today?

Nirupama Subramanian: So the opposition party saw that this dynamic was playing out between Imran Khanand the army. And they had tried to separate the army and Imran Khanback in 2019. And now, this time, they saw that it had happened that the rift had come about because of this ISI appointment. So they immediately put their plans together and came up with this no confidence motion against Imran Khanand the army which could have prevented this. Basically, they could have coralled all the dissidents, they could have prevented MQM from leaving, I mean, his allies, his coalition partners, they could have prevented I mean army can do all this, you know ISI has been doing this all the time,

Shashank Bhargava: Basically, they could have turned things in his favour.

Nirupama Subramanian: In his favour, but they say they’re going to play neutral, what is neutral here, neutral means they are not going to help you by not helping you, they actually helping the other side, but they’re not saying it. So what all this means is that the Army has shown that it is the most preeminent predominant political force in Pakistan. That’s what it has actually shown. So even anybody who now let’s assume that Imran Khanis going because he does appear to be a minority government, and whatever comes in the place of this government, whether it is a caretaker government, or whether it is last one year or three months. So whatever that is, it will have to play by the rules that Imran Khanhad sort of violated. When he began with this same page declaration, Pakistan has accepted a hybrid form of governance where the military and the civilian political leadership, they join hands to govern the country together, like in Myanmar, that’s a hybrid government. I mean, it was before the present coup Suu Kyi and the Myanmar army it were coexisting in the same government, that was a hybrid government. This was also a hybrid government, for all practical purposes. Now, whoever comes next, we’ll have to play the rules of this hybridity I mean, no new government can imagine that it is come about to a democratic process. All this is not democracy in action. This is exactly the opposite of democracy. I mean, you can pretend that you know you’re going through a constitutional process, there is a no confidence motion, there are opposition parties, people have crossed sides. And all this happens always in democracies. But this is not democratic. If the way it has happened is not democratic in Pakistan. The way people have changed sides, who has changed sides, you know, which are the parties that have changed, and even that is a question and why have they changed sides? All these trails go lead back to the army.

Shashank Bhargava: And Nirupama during this time, how has Imran Khantried to counter this opposition against him?

Nirupama Subramanian: So he’s been lashing out at people, his language has really deteriorated in public speeches. You know, he has been abusive of people. You know, he’s called out the army chief. Then he even said that what is this? They’re saying they’re neutral his only animals are neutral.

Jab accha bura hota hai, toh Allah ne, Allah ne hume ijazat hi nahi di ki hum neutral ho jaye. Janwar neutral hota hai. Janwar mein acche-bure ki tameez nahi hoti. Insaan, insaan acchaayi ke saath khada hota hai.

Nirupama Subramanian: So things like that. You know, he sounded crazy at times. The way he’s been going on about this. He’s a cricketer. So a lot of cricketing metaphors have been used to describe his political career. So he has himself used one thing I’ll play to the last ball. So he has been doing some last minute deal making he offered one ally, the chief ministership in of the Punjab province, which he had given to one of his favourites. So that man resigned and he gave it this ally. So the ally stayed with him when he tried to woo another ally in Karachi, governorship of the Sindh province. And then he said, Okay, I’ll give you the cabinet portfolio of shipping, which they had wanted for a very long time. But that didn’t work. Those guys didn’t stay with him. And then now he has produced a letter, which he claims has the contents of a conversation in which the Americans the Biden administration is saying that as long as Imran Khanremains in power, the US and Pakistan can’t normalise relations he has to go and then we’ll see what happens

Imran Khan: Mere paas jo yeh sabooth hai, yeh mere paas sabooth hai aur main aaj sabke saamne kehna chahta hun, ki koi bhi shart karna iss mere khad ke upar, koi bhi shart kar raha hai, main unko dawat dunga off the record, off the record baat karenge lekin main aap toh khud dekh sakte hain ki yeh main bat karnga.

Nirupama Subramanian: So he has produced this to say, you know, Pakistan khatre mein hai, Pakistan ki foreign policy khatre mein hai aur yeh conspiracy hai mere khilaaf. So these are the things that he is now attempting to do. On Thursday evening, there’s going to be a meeting of the National Security Council. And where he’s going to discuss this letter he’s already discussed, he’s already revealed the contents of his letter to journalists and to his allies as he tried to make them stay back with him. So we’ll see how it goes when it comes to the vote. There’s also a plan that if it comes to voting, which will be held, apparently on the third of April, so there is a plan in the PTI that to prevent dissidents from its own party from cross-voting so no PTI member will attend Parliament or that day

Shashank Bhargava: Wait, his own party should not attend so that they are able to get the right numbers?

Nirupama Subramanian: so that the opposition doesn’t benefit from the numbers of that cross voting may yield. This is the plan.

Shashank Bhargava: Is there a chance that he will get the numbers to keep him in power?

Nirupama Subramanian: Looks very unlikely at this moment, because there are supposed to be 22 guys in his own party who have crossed over to the other side to the opposition side, then there are all the allies who have crossed over so even without the defectors, it looks like he’s already in a minority, even if they all stay away, he might not make those numbers.

Shashank Bhargava: Okay, so let’s say Imran Khangoes away. Is there a party or even a plan that the Pakistan Army prefers right now?

Nirupama Subramanian: It’s all speculation and rumour, but they are saying that Nawaz Sharif’s brother Shahbaz Sharif is an acceptable choice for the army as caretaker Prime Minister or somebody to take charge of the government until the next elections at least. And then we’ll see. But the army also would not like any one party from becoming very powerful. So in the next election, you might see a fair division of votes. And then Imran Khanmay still emerge as a very powerful opposition leader.

Shashank Bhargava: And what kind of implications do these changes and the situation in Pakistan have for India?

Nirupama Subramanian: So the wisdom is, there has been absolutely no movement between Imran Khanand Prime Minister Modi. Again, there’s absolutely been no chemistry and there’s been a lot of intemperate language from Imran Khan’s side against Modi and very personal attacks. And in your own mind, you may think whatever you want to about the prime minister of another country, but if you’re neighbours and you really claim to want peace, then you’re more diplomatic with what you say how you express your feelings, but this man has not been able to keep control on that. So it is, as I said, there’ll be no agreements at all, except for that agreement between the two militaries on the LOC, and another one on the Kartarpur corridor, which is again a military security establishment led initiative. So things have been very frozen since 2008, from the time of the Mumbai attacks, and then, of course, so many other attacks have happened Pathankot, Uri, and you know, so on. So things have become worse and worse, to a point where we now have virtually no relations at all. But the back channel, as I said, is going on. And there’s a lot of value to that back channel. For instance, when we had that missile thing,

Shashank Bhargava: When we accidentally fired a missile into the Pakistani territory.

Nirupama Subramanian: Yeah, when we fired missile that changed direction and went into Pakistani territory, the back channel swung into action and prevented what could have become another huge big India-Pakistan row from not blowing up into that and the reaction on both sides was very restrained, and even Pakistan acknowledged that it might have been a mistake, but India has to explain it. So all And India has apologised very they were very contrite in the way they apologised. So all that was managed by the back channel. So there is engagement, but it is not a public engagement. And that back channel engagement has not yet been able to produce any forward movement in the public sphere because the Imran Khangovernment has been very state first that they want the status of Kashmir to go back to what it was prior to August 5 2019, which India has said again and again is not going to happen. I mean, I can’t say this for sure, but I think one can make a guess that what the security establishment might be satisfied with was if India could restore the statehood of Kashmir and that is something that India has promised anyway to Kashmir that after the State Assembly elections, statehood will be restored. So I think if this government goes there might be some incremental thawing in the relationship. It may not be huge, it may not be big, but maybe trade will start some small things.

Shashank Bhargava: And do you think this back channels you talked about because they are back channels and not something in public will still remain even when Imran Khangoes away?

Nirupama Subramanian: Yeah, I think those will remain. They become kind of institutionalised is my understanding of what it is.

Shashank Bhargava: You’re listening to 3 things by the Indian Express. Today’s show was written and produced by Mr. Shashank Bharagava , and was edited and mixed by Suresh Pawar. If you like the show, then do subscribe to us wherever you get your podcasts. You can also recommend the show to someone you think will like it. Share it with a friend or someone in your family. It’s the best way for people to get to know about us. You can tweet us at @Expresspodcasts and write to us at podcasts@Indianexpress.com