All you need to know about Manipur Assembly Elections 2022

TRANSCRIPT

(Disclaimer: this transcript is autogenerated)

Snigdha Sharma: Hi, I’m Snigdha Sharma and you’re listening to 3 Things The Indian Express news show. On the 28th of February that is two days from now, the Northeastern state of Manipur will enter the first of a two phase election. Voters will select 60 Legislative Assembly members. Now among the five states that have gone to elections this year, Manipur stands out not just because of its location in the country, but also its unique history with India. Insurgency began not long after the erstwhile kingdom merged with the country. And ever since, the identity of the state has been synonymous with internal strife that colors almost every aspect of the state, including of course, the politics, which is why to understand what is going on in the poll bound state, there are some key factors that we have to look at. And to help us do that Indian Express’ Esha Roy and Tora Agarwala joined the show. Esha began by explaining to us how insurgency and elections are inextricably linked in Manipur.

Esha Roy:  So over the last five, six years, especially insurgency in Manipur has flagged it has been on the decline. And one of the main reasons for that is because while in initial years and several decades after the formation of these different insurgent groups from UNLF to PLA, PREPAK, KYKL, KCP — they were very ideologically driven groups. They wanted independence from India, they wanted social justice for their community, they were driving various social justice campaigns such as the ban on alcohol — they have in the past carried out campaigns against alcoholism, against the intake of drugs, etc, etc. But in more recent years insurgent groups have become more mercenary. So they were easily hired, especially by politicians and political candidates.

Snigdha Sharma:  Right so Esha tell us, how exactly do insurgents operate during elections, when they become very active, right?

Esha Roy:  They will, a certain faction, a local faction, can be hired by a local candidate standing for any election and the insurgent group on the candidates behalf will go to constituents in the area and impose on them whom to vote for assuring that particular candidates victory. Sometimes they will call instead of meeting every voter or issuing a general diktat, they will invite the village headman and the chieftain and the village councils and discuss with them and tell them which candidate should be voted for and then the village chieftains and councils will then relay this message to the rest of the villages and ensure a victory. The other way this works is that the insurgent groups are very often dictate which candidates should receive tickets from which political party. Now as far as imposing on voters is concerned, this is far more open, and it’s more rampant in the hill districts in Kuki areas and Naga areas, which are remote and very difficult for the paramilitary forces for the Manipuri police to control.

Snigdha Sharma:  Okay, Esha you witnessed this firsthand while you were reporting from there many years ago. Can you tell us about that incident?

Esha Roy:  Yes, I myself saw like a booth being captured by NSCN-IM in a very far flung, small little picturesque village called Sterakethai in outer Manipur Lok Sabha constituency during the 2014 elections, where the Manipuri police who had been stationed at that particular poll booth had removed themselves to one side of the village. The booth had been taken over by cardors of the NCSN-IM would come to the village two nights before the election station themselves there and on election day, took over the booth and had a couple of villagers vote on behalf of the entire population of that village. So of course, after the story was published, the Election Commission asked for re polling of this particular booth.

Snigdha Sharma:  So Esha tell us how does this affect the voters of the state? How does it influence them?

Esha Roy:  I mean, it’s common knowledge that the Naga people’s front which is Nagaland based political party with its own arm in Manipur is often backed by the NSCN-IM so there are very few voters, out of fear of prosecution, who will vote contrary to what the IM wants or what the insurgent groups have asked¢¢ them to do. They don’t operate as openly, the way they operate is far more sophisticated and covert. What they do is put a lot of pressure on political parties. And I think in these areas the pressure is in terms of fielding candidates and giving tickets to candidates that they support. Of course, the consequences in the Imphal Valley are not as dire as it would be in the hill districts, especially since the Meithei insurgent groups are not stationed within India but across the border in Myanmar. Nevertheless, it is a very palpable pressure for political leaders and political parties and also by voters.

Snigdha Sharma:  Now there are two main insurgency movements in Manipal. One the Naga insurgency movement, which began in Nagaland but there are many Naga areas within Manipur state where different Naga tribes live, and two, just as a Naga has wanted to be an independent country, many in Manipur, too, did not want to be a part of India. So it is from this dissatisfaction with the merger agreement with India that the insurgency emerged in 1964 with the formation of the United National Liberation Front or UNLF, which was fighting for secession from India, and to date remains one of the most formidable insurgent groups in the East. And now while the Naga group NSCN is in peace talks with the Indian government, none of the Meitei or Manipuri groups have ever had a dialogue with the Indian government or any form of agreement, and they still remain very active. Most of these groups function from Myanmar because they are illegal and banned in India. But to understand the merger with India and the subsequent insurgency even better, we have to go back right to the origins of Manipur.

Esha Roy:  How Manipur became a part of India’s extremely interesting and it is disputed till this day, which is that the Maharaja of Manipur known as Bodhchandra Singh signed an instrument of accession with the Government of India but this instrument while handing over certain powers to India, such as Foreign Affairs and Communications maintain that Manipal would be autonomous. However, he also later signed a merger agreement in 1949, which incorporated Manipur into the Indian state, and this is highly disputed many Manipuri historians, analysts, culturalists, say that, that the Maharaja was actually forced to sign this merger agreement. After this agreement was signed Manipur was categorized as a centrally administered state or a c-state. It then became a territorial Council and eventually a Union Territory, it was only granted statehood 30 years later in 1972. So the history of Manipur is intricately linked to its social and political condition and landscape presently, because these matters of dispute remain till date and are actually the seeds of the insurgent movement in the state the merger agreement, the way Manipur was incorporated into the Indian state. The fact that Manipur which was an erstwhile kingdom was not given full statehood all the way to 1972. These are some matters of great frustration, disappointment, ire, anger in Manipur till the state, and that’s why the nearly 60 year old insurgent movement has not been resolved.

Snigdha Sharma:  In the mid 18th century, the Manipur Kingdom sought the help of the British to counter threat from the Burmese while the British did help at that point and won the war. Manipur eventually became a British protectorate. And it did not go too well, ultimately leading to the Anglo-Manipur War of 1891. Now another important factor that deeply influences the politics of Manipur is the inter tribal conflicts and clan loyalties. For example, we know that the Nagas and Kukis have historically not gotten along too well. Esha tells us more about this.

Esha Roy:  So you know, for instance, in the Gangetic belt, like in a Bihar or UP you would have the caste equation, which really is an important part of the electoral process. And that’s how political parties field candidates, and that’s how voters vote. In the Northeast in particular Manipur, Manipur is extremely ethnically, very complex. And therefore the politics is very layered. So the Imphal what is called the Imphal Valley, which is the erstwhile kingdom of Kangleipak is where the Manipuri or the Meitei speaking people live, they follow Vaishnavism and they are the descendants of the kingdom. So Manipur is like a doughnut so you have the valley in the middle and you have the hills circling it. The hills are occupied by tribal communities. In one district in Churachandpur, you have the Kukis, the Zomis and the Paites and they have been traditional rivals of the Nagas, who occupy most of the other Hill districts in Manipur. So in Imphal Valley while the clan issue is not I mean, they are politically far more aware, I would say and far more active. You know, there’s a lot of monarchical court politics, which happens in the Imphal valley in the hills is where you see the clan issue play up a lot. So there’s the saying in Manipur, that it’s not an election, it’s a selection. So when you have a village, which belongs to one particular clan, the village headman or the village council often decides on behalf of the entire village on which candidate is going to win, they usually let the voters know that this village is supporting this candidate, and everyone will go and vote for that candidate accordingly, instead of making their own independent decisions. That’s how the elections usually work in the hill areas in Manipur.

Snigdha Sharma:  What Esha was talking about the rift between the hills and the Imphal Valley ultimately boils down to the feeling of neglect or being left out of the good things that came with stable governance. Development mainly focused on the valley. However, the manipur chief minister N. Biren Singh has been very vocal about bridging this gap. He has flagged off welfare programs including Go To Hills, Go To Village, Aayushman Bharath CMHT and health for all for the region. Recently when a controversy surrounding the induction of eight MLAs from the valley areas as members to the Hill areas committee by an order of the Manipur Assembly Speaker broke, the chief minister said that he would ensure that special provisions under Article 371 C for Hill areas will not be affected under any circumstances. So we asked Tora about how successful the Chief Minister has been so far in bridging this old rift.

Tora Agarwala:  When the Biren Singh government came to power, one of their biggest programs was go to hills, basically, they aim to bring governance to the hills, you know, he had different programs that he had something called the hill leaders day were he would meet and talk to different leaders from the hills, then they would hold location cabinet meetings there, they had a government sponsored festival in Ukhrul. And these hilly areas is where people from the valley never usually went. So that way these kinds of things were basically an attempt to sort of bridge this gap with this long standing gap between the two areas. And the other thing is the Biren Singh also claims that the budget for the hills also increased under him anyway. So I had visited the hill districts had gone to Ukhrul had gone to Kangpokpi and I asked them how far did this work? So many people agreed that yes, you know, the psychological gap between the hills and the valleys reduced, but it was just that development still hadn’t reached the hills, hospitals, schools and all are still in a bad shape over there. So many criticize the government for just making a lot of noise about the go to hills campaign with little impact on the ground. When I met the Chief Minister for an interview, and I asked him this, that you talk a lot about the go to hills campaign. But on the ground, many people say that it’s nothing more than lip service. So he said, Yeah, I mean, I did admit that there is a long way to go when it comes to development, because there has been years and years of neglect, but at least we made the effort and at least we are trying.

Snigdha Sharma:  Not the BJP government in Manipur, was elected in the year 2017. And ever since it has become a watershed year in the politics of the state. First, of course, because this was after 15 years of Congress rule under Okram Ibobi Singh, who had in the previous election in 2012. helped his party win the election for the third time with an absolute majority securing 42 of the total 16 Assembly seats. So what happened in 2017? And why was it so significant? Isha tells us,

Esha Roy:  Yeah, the 2017 election was very significant for the BJP in particular, because that was their first footfall outside of Assam, their first footfall and fore into East when they formed the government after the 2017 election, despite not having the majority of the seats. That’s what is extremely interesting Congress which 28 seats and the BJP had 21. But as soon as the election results were announced very many people defected to the BJP, including Trinamool Congress candidate who had defected from the Congress to Trinamool and then from Trinamool to the BJP, which is how it often works in the Northeast where people really switch sides very quickly, depending on where they think they’ll get the most power or which party is likely to become the next ruling party and the BJP managed to cobble together an alliance with the four MLAs from the National People’s Party and for MLAs from the Naga People’s Front. So they managed to cobble together patchwork government and the Congress was on the sidelines. So this was very, very significant no matter how they form the government, the fact that the BJP managed to enter the northeast, many of the states in the Northeast first of all are being tribal, or very Christian, whether it’s Nagaland, Meghalaywa, large areas in Manipur, which is occupied by tribal communities have always been nervous about the BJPs Hindutva tirade, then the speeches, the push for Hindi language, the imposition of the Hindi language, imposition of Sanskrit brahminical culture, they’ve always very nervous about it, especially you know, things like the BJP is anti beef stance. So the fact that the BJP made, this foray into the Northeast is very, very important for them. Apart from that the other really significant thing that happened in the 2017 election is prior to that the Congress has really been the dominant force in Manipur since elections began 1950s and 60s even before Manipur became a state in ’72. In the elections that were held. Congress has always traditionally been a very dominant force. And I believe it’s because the Manipuri people have very few options. It is not as politically as vibrant a state, for instance, like Bihar or West Bengal or many of the northeastern states are not politically that vibrant. The voting that takes place is very candidate oriented more than political party oriented. So the fact that so many parties, especially the regional party took center stage in 2017 was extremely interesting, because before that, for three terms continuously, you have to remember that Congress was in power and Okram Ibobi Singh was the Chief Minister. While he was not a particularly popular chief minister, it is very unlikely that he would have been voted out by a people with a psychology that is really averse to change they like stability, they don’t like instability or change as much not instability but change as much. So NPP and NPF. These two parties became kingmakers. They were the ones that decided who would form the government, the Congress of the BJP, they decided to go with the BJP. That was I think, quite remarkable, and we see reflections of the 2017 election even in this the 2022 election that is happening right now, the Conrad Sangwa MPP fought nine seats last time, but they became so prominent in Manipur for despite belonging to Meghalaya that in this election, they’re fighting 39 seats, which is quite a feat. The NPF is there but you have the entrant of the JDU, which has barely ever had a footprint in Manipur before thi. You have all the candidates who did not receive tickets in the BJP in the Congress have defected either to NPP or to JDU. Many in Manipur calling JDU BJPw beating. And in this election, these are the parties that will again like in 2017 will decide who forms the government because it is unlikely that either the BJP or the Congress will get to absolute majority this time round as well. Just like last time

Snigdha Sharma:  Right, so Isha, can you tell us what does this mean for the people of Manipur?

Esha Roy:  While this seems very chaotic, it’s very good news for the Manipuri people, because now they do have options. They do have different political parties. They have a wider range of political candidates to choose from to vote for the candidates and the parties will have to work harder to get the voters support, which was not the case before. It really was the monopoly. It was a one party system, there was barely an opposition so the voters and the constituents and the residents in Manipur really had very little choice, which left them at a disadvantage as far as the political process is concerned and having their voices heard as well.

Snigdha Sharma:  So since Tora has been in Manipur to cover the elections, we asked her about her impressions as a reporter on the ground covering the elections.

Tora Agarwala:  Five years back, the BJP formed its first government in Manipur and this election in 2022 is basically about how well or how badly the BJP government has done to give you a picture. It’s been a mixed response for one you know, the turbulent era of Ibobi Singh, who was the chief minister for 15 years under the Congress, that era which is marked by encounters bandhs and blockades. That’s a thing of the past now and you know it has considerably reduced. So that’s been the BJP main pitch that you know they’ve been able to bring normalcy to Manipur. The other thing they claim is that they’ve been able to bridge the long standing divide between the hills and the valleys. And apart from that, the flip side is that it’s also been rocky for the BJP because under Chief Minister Biren Singh, there has been a lot of stifling of freedom of expression, a string of arrests has been made on the NSA of scholars, journalists, anybody who’s basically criticized him or criticized the government. And that’s not gone down very well with people. There’s also been a political crisis, because many people allege that the Chief Minister got too power hungry, and he tried to pitch himself as the sole face of the government and in 2020, in fact, the National People’s Party, they almost pulled out of the government and the government almost toppled at the National People’s Party is basically a coalition partner in the current government. So while there has been good, it’s also been marked by things like this, you know, the stifling of freedom of speech of a lot of political crisis within the government. And many people say that more than challenges from the opposition like the Congress, the real challenges is within the BJP at this time. Having said that, we also must remember that in a place like Manipur, it’s very difficult to predict elections, simply because elections work very differently in the state compared to the rest of the country. So while you know, you think that political parties would influence the way people vote, it’s not the case in Manipur. And one of the many factors is that just the number of defections which happened like in 2017. Even if the Congress was the single largest party it was the BJP was able to form a government by cobbling up a coalition government Right? So there’s a saying in Manipur circles that anything can happen and there is no full stop in Manipur politics, so you can’t really predict who’s going to win but from the looks of it, the BJP is on a good wicket. And one reason is that they’re already in power in the state and second reason is that they are in power the center is small states like Manipur tend to vote for parties which are at power the center because they basically believe that it will be easier to get funds for development and things like that. So yeah, currently, the BJP seems to be on a good wicket. It’s just like what I said earlier that you can’t really predict. So that’s always a question mark. But we’ll have to see how the coalition works out where the smaller parties go, who they side with, so the kingmakers are also very important in this election.

Snigdha Sharma:  Now talking about the BJP. We asked Aisha next to give us a brief overview of the tenure of Chief Minister Biren Singh in the last five years.

Esha Roy:  Biren’s tenure during the last couple of years has been extremely faction ridden with a lot of dissidents against him, not just from his allies, NPP and NPF. But within the party as well, when Biren was selected as chief minister, it was because of his experience as a minister in the Congress cabinet in the prior government, but also because of his seniority, whereas the other aspirant, Mr. Vishwajeet he was not seen as being senior enough. But that was possibly the root of very tumultuous tenure for Biren as the chief minister, as the factions and dissidents within the BJP, particularly spearheaded by Vishwajeet grew with every passing year. That was one contentious issue that Biren as a chief minister had to deal with. Then there was the matter of dealing with the Conrad Sangma’s National People’s Party, whereas the party is the BJP ally, especially in Meghalaya. Where Conrad Sangma is a chief minister, but the relationship between the BJP and the NPP in Manipur locally has been extremely tumultuous. The NPP fought from nine seats in the previous election won four, which was unexpected, and all four of its MLAs were given ministerial berth because the BJP form Manipur’s first ever BJP government so they were vital in formation of this government, their leader in Manipur, the former DJP Mr. Yumna has had a very, very belligerent and confrontational relationship with the Chief Minister.

Snigdha Sharma:  In fact, Esha told us that in a recent rally for election, the Chief Minister even accused the Deputy Chief Minister of corruption, which she pointed out was extremely unusual for a chief minister to do against his own cabinet minister. But this is not entirely unusual for Manipur the Congress. In the time of Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh was as faction ridden as the BJP is right now, the difference however she told us was that the decisive support that Ibobi Singh got from Sonia Gandhi came very late for Biren Singh from the BJP, in fact, just before the campaigning of the Assembly elections that we are seeing right now. Now, after having delved into the causes of the insurgency in Manipur in the five years under BJP rule, let us know find out whether AFSPA or the Indian government’s highly criticized response to tackle the issue matters to voters in Manipur.

Tora Agarwala:  So every election AFSPA emerges as an issue, but it usually doesn’t translate to votes. And that’s evident because in 2017, Irom Sharmila contested elections on that very poll plan, and everyone knows of a long fight against AFSPA, ultimately, she barely got any votes. But still parties feel the need to put it in the manifesto. And this time, especially because of what happened in Nagaland in December last year, when 14 civilians were killed in the aftermath of you know, because of the botched up security incident. So now we have the Congress, the National People’s Party, the Naga People’s Front, all of them have it in the manifesto. Now, the BJP obviously hasn’t done it, but they’ve kind of played it smartly because they know it doesn’t really affect them. Because in the Naga areas anyway, though, the Naga People’s Front has most of the backing and AFSPA is on their manifesto. And even if the BJP and the NPF have not announced a pre poll Alliance, it’s likely that you know they will get together after the elections so that way the AFSPA are not being there on the BJP manifesto doesn’t really hurt them.

Snigdha Sharma:  While the politics of Manipur is ridden with complexities, it also gives the state a unique character, which Tora captured perfectly in this report that she talks about now.

Tora Agarwala:  Here more than the political party, the candidate is important. So if a candidate shifts to parties, it’s likely that his voters will also shift. So there’s this place called Saikul which is in Kangpokpi district it’s about 30 kilometers from an empire. It’s a Hill District. And I initially got interested in the constituency because I heard that a father was contesting against his daughter. And I thought that was pretty unique. And that’s why I went there but when I went there, and I spoke with the local people, I realized that and I heard of all the other candidates contesting I realized that this was a site of a very quintessentially Manipur election, just because of how eclectic and diverse the candidates were. So as I said earlier, one there was Yamthong Haokip who is the father I was talking about, so he was initially a congressman, and he shifted to the BJP. And he also happens to be on the radar of the NIA, the National Investigation Agency on a arms robbery case. So he shifted to the BJP when he did the Congress leadership thought it would be good to put up his daughter against him on a congress ticket. So they put up Lhingkim Haokip who is his daughter, the rumor is that there is also a family feud. And that is why the father and the daughter are contesting against each other. So that’s fun. Then there’s also Kimneo Hnaghsing who is contesting from the Kuki People Alliance, a new political party, and she has a lot of support. And it’s apparently because she is the wife of the self styled chairman of the Kuki revolutionary army, which is outlawed militant group militant groups impact or shape elections. So because she is his wife, many people say that she is sure to win. I mean, but she doesn’t think so. She says it’s because of her work that she is going to be winning or that she is popular. Apart from that then there is also a 82 year old man whose name is Mr. Doungel. And he has been with a number of political parties before from the NCP to the Manipur’s People’s Party This is a party which now doesn’t exist. And this time he is contesting as an independent and he had quite a history because there are a lot of militant attacks on him and he’s quite popular even he is contesting and and I asked him why he shifted so many parties, he said that he was a freelance politician. So yeah, I mean, basically, you know, all the things you hear about Manipur and you know, however confusing it is a lot of other factors shaping the elections, all of them sort of met and came through in this little constitutes cycle. So we did the story and to sort of give readers an insight into how elections and politics work in a place like Manipur which is very different from the rest of the country.

Snigdha Sharma:  You were listening to 3 Things by the Indian Express. Today’s show was written and produced by me Snigdha Sharma and was edited and mixed by Suresh Pawar. You can follow us and leave us feedback on Facebook or Twitter at Expresspodcasts or send us an email at podcast@indianexpress.com and if you like the show please do subscribe And leave us a review wherever you get your podcasts from so more people can find us. You can also look for us in the audio section in the top right corner of our website indianexpress.com