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This is an archive article published on August 11, 2019

Taliban may want India in deal too, won’t want a spoiler: Saad Mohseni

Afghan-Australian Mohseni is owner of MOBY, largest Afghan media group, which owns TOLO news agency, TV channels and radio stations.

Saad Mohseni MOBY, Saad Mohseni India Afghanista, India Afghanistan Taliban, Indian Express news Afghan-Australian Saad Mohseni is owner of MOBY. (Twitter/ saadmohseni)

How do you see the Afghan process unfolding?

I think the Taliban believe this provides them path to power. For them, it is win-win — be a part of the process, and if that fails, continue to have their fighters, fully armed, to get back into fighting… Even the ceasefire that was mentioned as one of the key conditions, is being watered down. People are talking about ‘reduction in violence’ or a ceasefire in the cities. Or a ceasefire that would protect US compounds and bases, but not necessarily one that protects the nation.

What’s the view on the street?

The lack of transparency is a major issue. The Americans are tightlipped about what they are discussing with the Taliban. No one in the Afghan government is privy to the timeline of the withdrawal, the specifics on the conditions, how they are going to police the peace deal, how will they verify the commitments the Taliban are making… women’s rights, human rights, rights of media, freedom of expression.

Are the September presidential elections going to be held?

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If there’s an agreement on a roadmap, and a ceasefire, some people — both in Afghanistan and internationally — will feel compelled to postpone the elections. People have major concerns about the transparency of the elections, security, if the elections will fragment the country, as they did in 2014. But as Afghans, the process for president and parliament is one of our greatest achievements, so should we put things on hold just because promises have been made? The discussions (intra-Afghan meetings) we have had to date indicate that the Taliban are not in the mood to compromise on issues such as the ‘Emirate of Afghanistan’. The fact that you will have an Emir means you will have no democracy.

There is talk of an interim government….

So the roadmap that will come after the two Afghan sides sit — even if all the Taliban talk to us, we have the ISIS, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar, Al-Qaeda — so many different organisations that will attempt to undermine the rule of law.

Will Pakistan not rein in these groups in its own interest?

The Pakistanis are very good at saying all the right things, doing all the wrong … It’s not in Pakistan’s interests to have a strong, united government in Kabul, even if it’s the Taliban.

India has no role in the process.

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Where India can play a role is to work with other influencers — Saudi Arabia, the Gulf countries, US — to ensure it doesn’t backfire on all of us. India, given its influence in the region, can still play the role of a wise participant, as a neighbour. But once genuine peace talks start, I don’t think there can be a deal without regional consensus and the Indians will be engaged. Even the Taliban might want the Indians to be part of any peace deal because they would not want India to be a spoiler.

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