Suspended Thai PM Shinawatra faces court verdict over leaked call with Cambodia leader; what happens next

Critics argued her remarks undermined national interests at a time of escalating border tensions.

Paetongtarn has apologised, describing her comments as a negotiation tactic intended to reduce tensions and avoid bloodshed. Nevertheless, the controversy has triggered mass protests in Bangkok and cost her a key coalition partner, leaving her with only a slim parliamentary majority.

A few weeks after the call was leaked, a five-day border clash erupted between Thailand and Cambodia, leaving dozens dead and displacing hundreds of thousands. Hun Sen later published the full recording and threatened to release further information about Thaksin, with whom he has a strained personal relationship, The Guardian reported.

What happens if Shinawatra is ousted?

Paetongtarn’s case is the latest in a long battle between the Shinawatra family and Thailand’s military-royalist establishment. If she is dismissed, she would become the fourth member of her family forced from power through a coup or court ruling, following her father Thaksin in 2006, her brother-in-law Somchai Wongsawat in 2008, and her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra in 2014.

According to Reuters, Paetongtarn could also be the fifth prime minister in 17 years removed by the Constitutional Court.

Analysts warn that regardless of the verdict, Thailand faces instability.

If Paetongtarn is ousted, parliament will need to select a new prime minister from candidates nominated before the 2023 election. Only one is from her Pheu Thai party, 77-year-old Chaikasem Nitisiri, a former attorney general with little cabinet experience.

Other names include former coup leader Prayuth Chan-ocha, who has retired from politics, and Anutin Charnvirakul, a former deputy premier who pulled his party out of Paetongtarn’s coalition after the phone call scandal.

“Appointing a new prime minister will be difficult and may take considerable time,” said Stithorn Thananithichot, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, speaking to Reuters. “Pheu Thai will be at a disadvantage… bargaining power will belong to all parties except Pheu Thai.”

Even if Paetongtarn survives Friday’s ruling, her fragile coalition and damaged credibility may limit her ability to govern effectively. As analyst Stithorn noted, “The government would be unstable. Paetongtarn lost credibility from the day the phone conversation was leaked.”

(With inputs from The Guardian, Reuters)