— Kuldeepsingh Rajput US President Donald Trump’s exorbitant hike in H-1B visa fees underscores how global labour markets are being increasingly reshaped by the evolving dynamics of globalisation - whether described as deglobalisation, ‘slobalisation’, or protectionism. In addition to hinting at a structural shift in the global order, the H-1B visa issue also draws attention to the predicament of immigrants, with analysts noting that as legal pathways for migration narrow, more individuals would be compelled to seek undocumented routes, exposing themselves to heightened risks and insecurity. While restrictive H-1B visa and anti-immigrant policies may reduce opportunities abroad and affect the flow of remittances, do they also present an opportunity to strengthen India’s domestic capacity and encourage more skilled Indians to return and contribute to India’s growth? Let’s explore. H-1B visa: Gateway of mobility The H-1B visa was introduced in 1990 to help American employers address skill shortages when qualified domestic workers are unavailable. It primarily covers roles in science, technology, engineering, mathematics (STEM), and Information Technology. Thus, the H-1B visa allows temporary entry into the US for employment purposes, and can be issued for a maximum of six years. After this period, the visa holder must either leave the US for at least 12 months before reapplying or seek permanent residency (a Green Card). For decades, the H-1B visa programme has been a crucial pathway for skilled Indian professionals seeking employment in the US. In addition to attracting some of the world’s top talents, the programme also helped US employers address labour shortages. The American Immigration Council states, “The United States was built, in part, by immigrants - and the nation has long been the beneficiary of the energy and ingenuity that immigrants bring…” According to the council, the H-1B visa is a temporary (non-immigrant) visa category that allows US employers to hire highly educated foreign professionals to work in ‘specialty occupations’ that require at least a bachelor’s degree or the equivalent. Notably, India remains the largest beneficiary of H-1B visas, accounting for 71 percent of approved applications in 2024, while China was a distant second at 11.7 percent. However, the recent hike in H-1B visa fees - from US$5,000 to US$100,000 - may deter many US companies from employing Indians and affect Indian workers and future aspirants. Experts and analysts have warned that this policy shift will have a ripple effect on India's $283 billion IT sector, which depends on the US for about 57 per cent of its income. A decline in employment opportunities and, in turn, remittances, would have potential implications for Indians. Shift in H-1B visa policy and its consequences The restrictive turn in the H-1B visa regime would perhaps help us understand how limitations on legal mobility can at times generate unintended consequences, particularly in the form of rising undocumented migration. In the case of the US, the number of undocumented Indian immigrants, often categorised as “illegal immigrants”, has risen significantly over time. According to the latest data from US Customs and Border Protection, the number of illegal Indian immigrants was about 20,000 in 2019-2020, around 30,000 in 2020-2021, and approximately 64,000 in 2021-2022. Most of them are primarily engaged in key sectors such as education, healthcare, professional and business services, construction, wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, leisure and hospitality, transportation, and utilities. Against this backdrop, US President Donald Trump’s H-1B visa policy speaks volumes about his protectionist stance, and draws attention to what is called deglobalisation. The process of de-globalisation refers to making countries less interdependent and less integrated, typically marked by declining international trade. Structural shift in global order In his article, Mapping complexity in deglobalisation: A typology of economic localisms from ‘hyper-localism’ to ‘strategic autonomy’ (2023), Thomas S J Smith states that ‘deglobalisation’ has been broadly used to refer to a break from the expansionist, neoliberal logic that dominated the previous decades. He further notes that trade wars, climate crisis, cross-border crime, international conflicts, and the disruption in the global trade due to the COVID-19 pandemic have collectively contributed to a potential slowdown, or even reversal, of globalisation, which is often referred to as economic deglobalisation. Similarly, Uri Dadush, in his working paper Deglobalisation and protectionism (2022), states that deglobalisation refers to a decline in interconnectedness among countries across trade, capital, migration, and technology flows. It represents a reversal of the long-standing and sustained global economic integration of the last 150 years, disrupted only by major wars and depressions. From this perspective, restricting migration, protectionist tariffs, and reshoring policies are not isolated measures but manifestations of a wider structural transition in the global order, namely deglobalisation. Populist politics shaping the process of deglobalisation In this context, protectionism in labour markets is one of the most visible expressions of deglobalisation, where governments seek to protect domestic workers from foreign labour force competition. In the US, this trend is strongly articulated in the slogan, Make America Great Again (MAGA) - a political movement that began during Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. MAGA embodies a populist call for strict limits on immigration and a return to pre-globalisation economic policies, particularly those preceding the late 20th century wave of global integration. It functions not only as a political slogan but also as a policy direction, prioritising American jobs over global openness and mobility. Viewed through the lens of globalisation, the MAGA movement shows how populist politics shape the process of deglobalisation. Nationalist leaders often turn to protectionist measures and scapegoat migrants, blaming them for economic insecurity, unemployment, and social instability. Some scholars prefer the term ‘slobalisation’ to emphasise that the ongoing shift represents a slowdown rather than a complete reversal of globalisation. While global trade in goods and services has stagnated, finance, digital connectivity, and migration have remained resilient. However, the H-1B visa and restrictions on immigrants hint at the changing nature of globalisation, reshaping international mobility, professional aspirations, and the very idea of an interconnected global labour market. To sum up, while restrictive H-1B visa and anti-immigrant policies would reduce opportunities abroad and affect the flow of remittances, they also underlined the need for India to build a stronger and more self-reliant economy. In this context, ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ is seen as a step towards self-reliance. It does not imply isolation or disengagement from the global economy, rather, it entails strengthening domestic capacity to engage with the world on India’s own terms. Post read questions What is the H-1B visa, and what types of occupations does it typically cover? When was the H-1B visa program introduced, and what was its original purpose? What are the economic implications of tighter H-1B visa restrictions for India’s IT sector and overall economy? To what extent can H-1B visa restrictions be viewed as part of a wider protectionist agenda rather than an isolated immigration measure? Evaluate whether deglobalisation represents a complete reversal or a reconfiguration of globalisation (in light of the concept of “slobalisation”). How might India’s policy of Atmanirbhar Bharat serve as a response to declining global mobility and protectionist trends? (Dr. Kuldeepsingh Rajput is a Post-doctoral Fellow and heads the RUBAL Foundation.) Share your thoughts and ideas on UPSC Special articles with ashiya.parveen@indianexpress.com Subscribe to our UPSC newsletter and stay updated with the news cues from the past week. Stay updated with the latest UPSC articles by joining our Telegram channel – IndianExpress UPSC Hub, and follow us on Instagram and X.
