The IEA 2024 oil report predicts that global oil consumption growth will slow down in the coming years, combated by increased EV sales, greater efficiency, and less reliance on oil for power generation in the Middle East and structural economic shifts.
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The global oil demand will rise by 3.2 million barrels per day by 2030 unless policymakers implement stronger measures or people adopt different behaviours. (Source: X/@IEA)
Advanced economies will witness a long-term decline in oil usage, with consumption dropping from 46 million barrels per day in 2023 to below 43 million by 2030, IEA further highlights.
However, on the contrary, Asia’s rapidly growing economies, especially India in the transportation sector and China’s expanding petrochemical industry, will drive global oil consumption.
The region’s development surged earlier this year, supported by a reasonably stable global economy, with the growth prediction for 2024 rising slightly to 5.0%, while the forecast for 2025 remains at 4.9%, according to the IEA.
To meet this anticipated demand, non-OPEC+ producers will play a crucial role in expanding global production capacity, contributing three-quarters of the increase by 2030, largely led by the United States, producing 2.1 million barrels per day to non-OPEC+ growth, while Argentina, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana will collectively add another 2.7 million barrels per day.
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On the other hand, OPEC+ is set to increase its oil production capacity by 1.4 million barrels per day from 2023 to 2030, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq leading this growth, according to the IEA.
However, the alliance’s share of global oil production will fall below 50% starting this year as non-OPEC+ countries take the lead in capacity expansion.
Top 10 largest oil-producing countries in the world
The total world oil production has reached 101.81 million b/d as of April 11, 2024, whereas the top ten oil-producing countries yield approximately 74.59 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, which represents about 73% of global oil production.
Rank |
Country |
Million barrels per day |
Share of world total |
1 |
United States |
21.91 |
22% |
2 |
Saudi Arabia |
11.13 |
11% |
3 |
Russia |
10.75 |
11% |
4 |
Canada |
5.76 |
6% |
5 |
China |
5.26 |
5% |
6 |
Iraq |
4.42 |
4% |
7 |
Brazil |
4.28 |
4% |
8 |
United Arab Emirates |
4.16 |
4% |
9 |
Iran |
3.99 |
4% |
10 |
Kuwait |
2.91 |
3% |
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and International Energy Statistics
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Note: Oil includes crude oil, all other petroleum liquids, and biofuels, and the source data are subject to change since the last update.
Last update: April 11, 2024
Top 10 largest oil-consuming countries in the world
The total world oil consumption reached 99.95 million b/d as of April 11, 2024, whereas the top ten oil-producing countries consumed approximately 61.08 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2023, which represents about 61% of global oil consumption.
Rank |
Country |
Million barrels per day |
Share of world total |
1 |
United States |
20.01 |
20% |
2 |
China |
15.15 |
15% |
3 |
India |
5.05 |
5% |
4 |
Russia |
3.68 |
4% |
5 |
Saudi Arabia |
3.65 |
4% |
6 |
Japan |
3.38 |
3% |
7 |
Brazil |
3.03 |
3% |
8 |
South Korea |
2.55 |
3% |
9 |
Canada |
2.41 |
2% |
10 |
Germany |
2.18 |
2% |
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and International Energy Statistics
Note: Oil includes crude oil, all other petroleum liquids, and biofuels, and the source data are subject to change since the last update.
Last update: April 11, 2024
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Where does India stand?
India is the world’s third-largest oil consumer, utilising around 5.05 million barrels per day and accounting for 5% of the global share, according to the EIA.
The country is projected to increase oil demand by nearly 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of this decade, accounting for over a third of the global demand growth of 3.2 million barrels per day, as per the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) projections.
The report added, “India will become the largest source of global oil demand growth between now and 2030, while growth in developed economies and China initially slows and then subsequently goes into reverse in our outlook.”
The growth is largely driven by “urbanisation, industrialisation, the emergence of a wealthier middle class keen for mobility and tourism, plus efforts to achieve greater access to clean cooking, which will underpin the expansion in oil demand,” the report further highlighted.
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The demand projections seemingly include domestic demand as well as fuel exports, as the country’s domestic oil consumption currently is under 5 million bpd, as per government data. (Source: PPAC)