Apple’s race against time to reverse Watch ban: Potential scenarios for the tech giant

Needless to say, this 11th hour decision has sent shockwaves through both the wearables space and Silicon Valley. In this article, we will take a look at the events that led to this decision and explain what options Apple has moving forward.

How did Apple get here?

The Apple Watch ban is the culmination of a decade-long feud between Apple and Masimo, a medical device company that specialises in pulse oximetry technology. Pulse oximetry, or SpO2, is a way of measuring the oxygen levels in the blood, and it is a feature that Apple added to its Apple Watch Series 6 in 2020.

The Apple Watch Ultra 2 was announced on September 12 and became available on September 22. (Image: Apple)

However, Masimo claims that Apple stole its patented SpO2 technology, as well as its trade secrets and employees, after the latter approached it for a possible collaboration in 2011. The company then sued Apple in 2020 in a federal court, alleging that Apple infringed on 10 of its patents. The company also filed a complaint with the ITC in 2021, alleging again that Apple Watches infringed several of its patents. Apple countersued in 2022, accusing Masimo of copying the Apple Watch design with its Masimo W1 Medical Watch.

The ITC sided with Masimo in January 2023, finding that Apple Watches violated Masimo’s patents, and issued an import ban and a cease-and-desist order against Apple in October, which will take effect after a 60-day presidential review period. Unless President Biden or the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) intervenes and vetoes the ban, Apple will have to stop selling its Apple Watches in the US by the end of the year.

What can Apple do against the ban?

One option is to appeal the decision and ask for a stay on the ban until the appeal is resolved. However, this could take up to 18 months and experts say the chances of getting a stay are slim. According to experts, Apple would have to show that it would suffer irreparable harm if it cannot sell its Apple Watch in the US, which is a hard argument to make given that the product accounts for only a fraction of its revenue and that it can still sell it in other markets.

Another option is to redesign the Apple Watch to avoid infringing the patents. This is what Apple is reportedly working on, according to Bloomberg. The report says that Apple engineers are trying to modify the blood oxygen algorithms on the watches and that the company plans to submit a workaround to the US customs agency to resume sales. However, this could also take time and there is no guarantee that the workaround would be accepted or that it would not infringe other patents.

SpO2 tracking on the Apple Watch. (Image: Apple)

A third option is to avoid the import ban altogether by making the Apple Watch in the US instead of overseas. This would require a major overhaul of Apple’s supply chain and manufacturing capabilities, which is unlikely to happen anytime soon. Apple has been trying to increase its domestic production of some products, such as the Mac Pro, but the Apple Watch is likely too mass-market to be produced locally.

It’s clear that there are several options, so the company will have to weigh the costs and benefits of each option and decide which one is the best for its business and customers. Although, with less than a week to go, there’s only so much Apple can do.

Is the Apple Watch SE affected?

The Apple Watch SE is not affected at all by the Apple Watch ban, as it does not use the blood oxygen sensor that is at the centre of the patent dispute. In fact, it doesn’t offer SpO2 at all. The SpO2 sensor is found in most other Apple Watch models, starting from the Series 6.

Is India affected?

Nope. As already stated, the ban is a US-only affair since it was ordered by the US International Trade Commission. As such, it only affects the sales of Apple Watch Series 9 and Ultra 2 models in the US, but not in India – or any other country, for that matter.

The road ahead

All signs point toward the ban going through, but it’s not like you’ll never be able to buy another Apple Watch in the US when it’s enforced. The SE model won’t be affected at all. Meanwhile, the Apple Watch Series 9 and Ultra 2 models will continue to sell via third-party retailers until stocks last. This may also trigger something of a gold rush as Apple fans in the US scramble to get their hands on any remaining units.

But Apple won’t simply accept an outright ban on such a significant product from its lineup. It will either make nice with Masimo or try to tweak things on the software or hardware side to work around the ban. We’ll have to wait and see which approach they take and how long it takes them to figure it out.