Why Wayanad for Priyanka Gandhi: Numbers tell the story

Shanavas, a Muslim face in a constituency with a significant population of the community at 41% (as per the 2011 Census), had previously contested and lost three Assembly poll races and two Lok Sabha fights until his win in 2009, when he secured a 49.86% vote share to defeat his CPI rival by over 1.5 lakh votes. He went on to retain the seat in 2014, albeit with a reduced vote share and victory margin over the CPI. The 2014 polls saw the closest contest till date between the Congress and Left, but still nearly 21,000 votes separated them.

Congress vote share in Wayanad

After Shanavas’s death in 2018, Rahul Gandhi took over as the Congress candidate from Wayanad. It was considered one of the safest seats for the party at a time when Gandhi faced a formidable challenge from BJP leader Smriti Irani on the family turf of Amethi. Eventually Wayanad proved priceless, helping Gandhi save face at a time that he lost from Amethi. He won by a massive 64.8% of the vote share, defeating the CPI runner-up by 4.32 lakh votes. Gandhi’s massive win also powered the party’s sweep of the Lok Sabha seats in Kerala.

In this year’s Lok Sabha polls, Gandhi retained Wayanad, but both his vote share and winning margin fell – to 59.69% and 3.64 lakh votes, respectively. This was in contrast to other candidates of the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), who saw their winning margins increase sharply compared to 2019.

This is one reason the Congress turned up in strength for nomination filing by Priyanka Wednesday.

Seven Assembly seats constitute the Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency. In 2011, the Congress secured a combined vote share of 31.1%, this rose to 26.9% in 2016 and 34.5% in 2021. Except in 2016, the Congress outdid its primary rivals in the Left across the Assembly segments in Wayanad; the Left managed vote share of 29.5% in 2011, 30.3% in 2016, and 25.6% in 2021. In 2011, the Congress and its allies won all the seven segments in Wayanad, but fell to three in 2016 before climbing to four in 2021.

From 1977 to 2004, before Wayanad was created by way of delimitation, the Lok Sabha seat was split across three constituencies – Calicut, Cannanore and Manjeri. In the nine elections held in that period, the Congress won Calicut and Cannanore six times each, but never won Manjeri. The Left parties won Calicut and Manjeri just once, and Cannanore three times. The IUML won Manjeri in every other poll.

The CPI’s only win in this period was from Cannanore in 1977.