UP Assembly bypolls: Congress-SP talks stuck over 3 seats, with both eyeing Muslim, Dalit vote

Congress insiders told The Indian Express that while the party has begun preparations in all 10 seats, it is not pushing hard on the five – Karhal, Kundarki, Sisamau, Milkipur and Katheri – that the SP won in 2022. Sources said the SP is ready to part with Ghaziabad and Khair for the Congress, which means that the above three seats remain a bone of contention.

Of the 10 seats – Meerapur, Ghaziabad, Khair, Kundarki, Karhal, Phulpur, Sishamau, Milkipur, Katheri and Majhwan – going to the bypolls, five were won by the SP in 2022. While the BJP won three, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and NISHAD Party won one seat each.

Leaders from the Congress and SP have their own arguments on why they want the three seats.

Claiming that the SP wants to keep all the minority-dominated seats for itself, a Congress leader said that Meerapur – where the bypoll was necessitated after sitting RLD MLA Chandan Chauhan won the Bijnor Lok Sabha seat – has a significant population of minorities but also Dalits. “Winning the bypoll here would prove to be an advantage for any party in the 2027 Assembly polls,” he said.

Refuting the claim, a district-level leader of the SP in Muzaffarnagar said the party has already constituted booth-level committees in areas where it did not perform well in the Lok Sabha polls. “We are ready to announce candidates as soon as the dates of the bypolls are declared. Also, Chauhan won the seat in 2022 while in alliance with the SP, which helped him consolidate minority and Jat votes in his favour. In effect, he won due to the SP’s backing,” the leader said. The Congress’ Jamil Ahmad Qasmi, a former BSP MLA, had garnered a mere 1,258 votes in the 2022 Assembly polls.

Both the parties also favour their chances in the changed equations after the Lok Sabha polls, where minorities and Dalits are believed to have voted in their favour.

The bypoll in Phulpur was necessitated after sitting BJP MLA Praveen Singh Patel won the recent Lok Sabha elections. Here, SP leaders are citing the party’s performance in recent elections to stake claim, while the Congress is eyeing the seat to revive its voter base here.

The SP, which last won the seat in 2012, gave Patel a run for his money in the 2017 and 2022 Assembly polls, with its candidate M M Siddiqui losing by a narrow margin of 2,700 votes in 2022. “The Congress is getting ambitious. The call (on the alliance) will be taken by the national leadership of both parties,” an SP leader said.

However, sources within the Congress say that the minority communities are firmly behind it and the party’s chances of winning Phulpur are brighter than the SP’s this time.

Majhawan, a seat with a significant Dalit population, was won by the NISHAD Party’s Vinod Kumar Bind in 2022. The bypoll here was necessitated after the MLA joined the BJP and won the Bhadohi Lok Sabha seat. The Congress and SP are staking claim to the seat while eyeing the BSP’s vote bank.

Apart from its 2022 Assembly poll performance where its candidate emerged as the runner-up, the SP claims former MLA Ramesh Chand Bind’s induction into the party has made Majhawan a “safe seat” for them.

On the other hand, the Congress claims that the Dalit vote bank is firmly behind it and the party stands a better chance to win the seat as it has the the ability to woo a majority of the electorate – comprising Dalits, Brahmins and Binds, who number 50,000 each.