Decode Politics: As TDP returns to NDA, what Chandrababu Naidu, BJP gain by reviving alliance

Why did Chandrababu Naidu return to the NDA fold?

Last November, sensing his party and political career may go into oblivion, the 73-year-old Naidu at a rally made an emotional appeal to voters. “This (2024) will be my last election if the TDP is not elected to power,” he told his supporters.

Thank you, @AmitShah Ji. Andhra Pradesh has tremendous potential. The development of my State will ultimately contribute to our country's growth story. With people's blessings, we shall herald a new era of prosperity under the leadership of Hon'ble Prime Minister @narendramodi… https://t.co/s7kcFbMhDP

— N Chandrababu Naidu (@ncbn) March 9, 2024

The TDP supremo’s appeal came amid reports that the TDP-JSP combine may not be able to dislodge the ruling YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) despite the Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy-led outfit replacing incumbents with “winnable candidates” to tackle the anti-incumbency against its legislators.

By bringing the BJP on board, Naidu hopes to consolidate anti-YSRCP voters who are disillusioned with the ruling party but undecided.

Electorally too, the TDP has fared better when in alliance with the BJP. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the party won 15 of the state’s 25 seats with a vote share of just over 40%. However, in 2019, after its exit from the NDA, the party was reduced to three seats. In 2014, the TDP-BJP alliance stormed to power in the Assembly elections with the Naidu-led party winning 102 of the 175 seats while five years later, when it went solo, it was reduced to 23.

What does the BJP get out of the tie-up?

The party has minimal presence in the state. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, it drew a blank and polled just 0.98% votes, fewer than NOTA’s 1.5%. The party, in alliance with the TDP in 2014, garnered 2% of the votes and won two Lok Sabha seats.

By riding on the coattails of the TDP-JSP combine, the national party hopes to get as many seats as possible in Andhra, something that will be a massive help as it attempts to win 370 Lok Sabha seats, an ambitious target set by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

What was the BJP’s calculation?

The BJP took its time to finally agree to let the TDP back into the NDA fold and repeatedly said it was assessing the political situation in the state before taking any calls.

Insiders claim the BJP went ahead with the alliance after getting a sense that a boost to the TDP-JSP combine and preventing the split of anti-YSRCP votes may help topple the Jagan government.

“(Jagan’s sister) Y S Sharmila (as AP Congress chief) was expected to split a chunk of anti-YSRCP votes, which now may be consolidated in favour of the TDP-JSP-BJP combine,” a source said.

Which regions will the alliance look to dominate?

The TDP, with the inclusion of the BJP, may gain more ground in the erstwhile undivided districts of Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram, and Srikakulam where the TDP-JSP combine was already seen as making up space ceded to the YSRCP in the last election. The districts are seen as the TDP’s strongholds.

In the former undivided districts of East and West Godavari, the Naidu-led outfit may gain more traction with the BJP in tow. In July 2022, Modi unveiled a statue of freedom fighter Alluri Sitharama Raju who is a revered figure in the region during a visit.

The Ayodhya Ram Temple consecration may also have an impact in the erstwhile Godavari districts as it has a significant number of upper-caste voters. Overall, upper-caste communities such as Kammas, Kapus, Brahmins, and Reddys make up around 35% of the state population. Most Kapus and Brahmins are concentrated in the Godavari region.

What happens to special category demand?

The alliance will save the BJP from the SCS tangle. “The BJP may ask Naidu and Kalyan not to raise the SCS issue in return for extending support if the alliance comes to power in the state,” a TDP-JSP insider said, adding that other demands such as additional funds for the Polavaram Project and welfare schemes might also be pushed on the back burner.

Amid the increasing speculation that the TDP was returning to the NDA fold, Jagan last month said he wished no party with a majority should form the government at the Centre. “If there is a government that is favourable to us, we can bargain for SCS,” he told the Assembly.

In the run-up to the 2019 polls, Jagan who had been fiercely critical of Naidu for “overlooking the interests of the state while being in the NDA”, finds himself in Naidu’s shoes in 2024.