Road to 2024 | In Rajasthan and MP, BJP puts shoulder to the wheel to give campaign a fresh start

The BJP’s decision to focus on the two states in the Hindi heartland, which remains its strength, also coincides with the serious hurdles being faced by its “greenfield” project to increase foothold in the southern and eastern states, and emerge as an alternative force in Telangana.

In Rajasthan, the BJP has gone back to the planning board to move players around and change strategies, while in Madhya Pradesh, the party is hoping that the energies poured into refurbishing the organisation in the past two years as well as Chouhan’s popularity among women voters will see it through.

The BJP has been in power in Madhya Pradesh for about two decades, barring December 2018-March 2020 when the Kamal Nath-led Congress government was in power, before being toppled by the BJP. The Chouhan government’s women-centric schemes are the bulwark of the BJP’s popularity in the state.

In Rajasthan, BJP leaders have been told to not rely just on the resentment against the incumbent Congress government or the traditional theory of the state alternating between parties in power.

What is also weighing on the BJP’s mind is its humiliating defeat in Karnataka, especially as three of its next big fights are similarly against the Congress. While the Congress is seen to be giving a tough fight to the BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, in the third state, Chhattisgarh, the grand old party holds the upper hand.

In Telangana, the state in the south where the BJP showed promise, the Karnataka effect has put a new spring in Congress steps. BJP sources admitted that the Congress’s success in weaving a narrative of guarantees for voters and anti-corruption against the BJP in Karnataka, apart from putting differences aside to put up a united front, had surprised the party.

However, many in the BJP argue that the political situation in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan cannot be compared with Karnataka. “There is no organisational chaos in the BJP ranks in either of the two states, of the kind visible in Karnataka. The party has already announced its election in-charges as well as poll management teams for both the states, and they have started working with the state teams. (Home Minister) Amit Shah is directly monitoring the situation,” a leader said.

In Rajasthan, where Gehlot is riding the popularity of his welfare schemes, the BJP will step up pressure over his government’s alleged corruption and “commission culture”. Admitting the popularity of the Gehlot government schemes, especially the Mukhyamantri Chiranjeevi Health Insurance Scheme, a BJP leader said: “Although the party is confident of the anti-incumbency factor (against the Gehlot government), we can’t risk zeroing in on a single issue. It is better to consider multiple possibilities and scenarios.”

Rajasthan BJP state president C P Joshi has spoken of a campaign against the Gehlot government focused on “50 per cent commission” in contracts – along the lines of the Congress’s popular 40 per cent commission campaign against the Karnataka government. The BJP has also prepared an audio-visual campaign on the “spiralling incidents of rape” in the state, to target women voters, and on the recruitment paper leak issue, to woo the youth, who are concerned about unemployment.

BJP leaders play down the Vasundhara Raje factor, saying the differences within the state unit have been resolved. According to them, her pressure tactics in staying away from official functions – which caused worry initially as similar discontent had cost the BJP dear in Karnataka – started boomeranging with Raje’s own supporters questioning the strategy.

“The BJP being an ideology-based cadre party, no one personality can dominate state politics… Many seniors from the so-called Raje camp reached out to the national leadership and started participating in party programmes actively,” said a party leader.

So, while Raje was missing when the BJP launched its membership drive as well as from the party’s core committee meeting in Jaipur, she was present at events attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. Two recently appointed committees – for election management and poll manifesto – did not have Raje in them, though her known detractors were also missing.

According to some leaders, Raje has cited personal reasons for staying away from some events.

Leaders like Union minister Gajendra Shekhawat have been openly talking about the BJP fighting the Rajasthan elections under a collective leadership, though some of those close to Raje remain optimistic about an announcement in her favour given that she is still the most popular BJP leader in the state.

In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP will double down on welfare measures to cement Chouhan’s popular and amicable image among women voters, even as the Congress has failed to pin corruption as an issue on his government.

According to its strategists, having in place an organisation that has the capacity to sustain an intense campaign is the BJP’s biggest asset in the state. The BJP calculation is that the Congress will not be able to sustain the momentum set by an aggressive Kamal Nath till the elections, which are expected to be held year-end.

BJP leaders point to the Congress changing its Madhya Pradesh in-charge recently, bringing in Randeep Surjewala in place of J P Agarwal, who apparently did not share a cordial relation with Kamal Nath. A few Congress leaders have also come out openly to express their disapproval over the Hindutva overtones in Nath’s campaign.

The one issue that might be common for the BJP across Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan is women voters. Madhya Pradesh recorded the steepest rise of 45 percentage points among the states in women voter turnouts between 1962 and 2018 (29.07 per cent and 74.01 per cent, respectively). In Rajasthan, the voter turnout among women was more than for men – 74.44 per cent to 73.80 per cent.