Message from Rae Bareli, Amethi: Rahul Gandhi de-risks, Priyanka still in waiting

And yet, having taken the plunge into active politics in 2019, and she is 52 years old — Rahul is fighting his fifth election — it is surprising that she is not making her electoral debut even in 2024. It is also being argued that her standing for elections would have given the BJP additional firepower to attack the Congress for furthering dynastic politics with three members of the Gandhi family in Parliament — the assumption being that “three” is a crowd as compared to the existing “two”. Priyanka has been taking on BJP and Narendra Modi, sometimes even more effectively than Rahul, and will be the target of BJP attack as a member of the dynasty, whether she is inside or outside Parliament.

The “two “versus “three” dilemma had reportedly surfaced also in 2004 when it was decided that it would be Rahul not Priyanka for Parliament. The decision was taken “together” by the family — it was said that Priyanka’s children were young at the time and she might not be able to give the kind of time that full-time politics would demand of her.

Over the years, many in the Congress have batted for Priyanka saying she reminded people of her grandmother. But till 2019, she was confined to nursing Amethi and Rae Bareli for her brother and mother.  When Arun Nehru — he was Rajiv Gandhi’s third cousin who had fallen out with him in the eighties — stood from Rae Bareli on a BJP ticket in 1999, Priyanka scotched his chances with her one-liner in Rae Bareli: “Are you going to support someone who betrayed my father?” Congress candidate Captain Satish Sharma won. According to Indira Gandhi’s political aide M L Fotedar, Indira Gandhi had once said, not long before she died, that she saw Priyanka as her political successor. But that was long ago. Since then, the country has changed dramatically — there is a young India out there that reacts to the politics of entitlement.

Of late, Priyanka has shown a connection with people at the political rallies she has addressed in the ongoing election campaign. Having said that, her ability to click electorally remains untested. Arguably, Priyanka’s victory from Rae Bareli, had she stood and won from there, would have placed her in a leadership role making her an important pole — and draw —  in the Congress party. The party’s decision shows that it is Rahul Gandhi who will be leading the Indian National Congress in the months and years to come.

It may be understandable that Rahul did not want to risk a defeat in Amethi but his decision to contest from Rae Bareli does raise some issues.

He will be called to choose between Wayanad and Rae Bareli, which is not going to be easy. When Indira Gandhi fought from both Rae Bareli and Medak in 1980, and Narendra Modi from Vadodara and Varanasi in 2014, the decision was known to people of both constituencies. When Rahul announced his decision to contest from Rae Bareli, voting was over in Wayanad. Will the voters of Rae Bareli wonder whether Rahul will prefer Wayanad?

Giving up Wayanad in the south can also have North-South implications especially when it is a fraught issue. Preferring the safer Rae Bareli to Amethi can also dent his image of being steadfast in taking on the PM. The Prime Minister has already flagged this — using the Congress leader’s words “Daro mat” and “bhago mat” to get back at him.

Much is being made of “a samanya karyakarta (ordinary worker)” of the Congress being given the ticket to fight from Amethi in place of a member of the Congress’s First family. This argument would have carried greater conviction if that karyakarta had been given three years to prepare rather than less than three weeks.

Undoubtedly, Amethi and Rae Bareli are not just any two Lok Sabha constituencies. They are seen as a gateway to the Congress’s re-entry and revival in UP. Their results will have an echo beyond the two seats.

(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 10 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of ‘How Prime Ministers Decide’)