The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has won the by-election in central Kashmir’s Budgam constituency, which has been represented by the National Conference (NC) since 1977 and last elected Chief Minister Omar Adbulllah as its representative in the 2024 Assembly elections.
A bypoll was necessitated in the constituency after Omar Abdullah, who won two seats in 2024, chose to keep the family bastion of Ganderbal and relinquish Budgam.
The BJP also fielded an Aga — Aga Syed Mohsin — though not from the same family as the other two candidates, and he finished in sixth position.
PDP president Mehbooba Mufti reached Budgam on Friday to thank the voters and join the party’s celebrations. “The people of Budgam have placed their faith in us and Aga Muntazir. I pray for the strength to be able to serve the people of Budgam,” she said.
Commenting on the party’s loss, Omar Abdullah said, “We want to see Budgam progress, but they possibly wanted something else. We will analyse this election result — where we fell short and what we need to correct.”
Conceding that the election was “not easy”, Abdullah said there is a big constituency of voters that did not vote on issues but focused on individuals.
For the PDP, which only has three seats in the 90-member House, the addition of Budgam will provide the party cadre with a morale boost.
For the NC, on the contrary, the result comes amid a rare public display of fissures between party leadership and its current Srinagar MP, Aga Ruhullah Mehdi, a key figure in Budgam.
The Ruhullah Mehdi factor
Ruhullah Mehdi has previously represented the Budgam constituency in the J&K Assembly and also holds sway over the constituency’s significant Shia population.
He represented Budgam from 2002 to 2014. In 2024, when he was elected to Parliament, Omar Abdullah stepped in to fight Budgam as a second, safe seat. However, despite a comfortable win, the Chief Minister’s decision to give up the seat did not go down well with the voters.
Ruhullah Mehdi has publicly criticised the party leadership and the Omar Abdullah government for not living up to election promises over the past year, and refused to participate in campaigning for the bypoll. Unlike last year, when Ruhullah accompanied the party’s then-candidate Omar Abdullah across every public rally and roadshow, the Srinagar MP was completely absent this time.
While many, including ally Congress, are reading into the NC’s defeat in Budgam as a referendum on the Omar Abdullah government, it has also been seen as a measure of Ruhulah Mehdi’s hold on the constituency.
After the results, quoting a verse from the Quran, Ruhullah wrote on X, “Lesson: Arrogance is the recipe for disaster. Consciousness, humility and introspection is the way.” Subsequently, the X handle of the office of the Srinagar MP posted a video showing people celebrating in Budgam with photos of Ruhullah Mehdi.
Omar Abdullah, when asked about Ruhullah’s role in the result, turned to a proverb — “You cut your nose to spite your face.” He also said that in order to send him a message, “Ruhullah has committed political suicide.”
PDP on the ground
Apart from the Ruhullah factor, the PDP also benefited from its candidate, Muntazir, having worked on the ground for a year even after his defeat to Omar Abdullah. At the same time, the NC announced its party’s candidate just days before the election date. The PDP also threw its weight behind its candidate, with Mehbooba Mufti campaigning in Budgam, along with PDP legislators from other areas.
In their campaigns, the PDP questioned the NC government’s performance over the last year in power despite having 50 MLAs in the House.
Aga Muntazir said in Budgam that his victory was a vote for change after many years of NC rule in the constituency.
Congress’s dig
The Congress party, an ally of the NC, however, attributed the victory to “public resentment” over unfulfilled promises and dissatisfaction with the NC government’s performance.
“…As far as Budgam is concerned, there is a change among the people there. We have to see what the reason for that is,” said J&K Congress president Tariq Hameed Karra. He maintained that people have expressed their displeasure over the government’s functioning through this vote.
“The Chief Minister had earlier won from there and later vacated the seat despite promising to retain the one with the higher lead. Even though his Budgam lead was higher, he left it,” the Congress leader said.
