With new Foreigners Act rules notified, why BJP is hoping for a 2019 repeat in West Bengal

A Scheduled Caste group, the Matuas trace their ancestry to present-day Bangladesh, and many of them entered West Bengal after Partition and after the formation of the 1971 war. Wielding significant electoral influence, they are sought after by both the TMC and the BJP. The BJP’s promise of enacting the CAA ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls had resonated among Matuas – the party notched its best performance in the state that year, winning 18 of its 42 parliamentary constituencies. The state government estimates that Matuas form around 17% of the state electorate and have a good presence in at least 30 Assembly seats. The Matua community’s own estimate is around 20%, with a direct impact in 40-45 seats.

However, amid discord between its leaders in the Matua community’s “first family” — the Thakur family’s two influential branches have allegiances to the BJP and TMC, respectively — and widespread concern about a Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in Bengal, a section of Matuas had turned to the Congress for help. The BJP was first taken aback when Union Minister Shantanu Thakur and his BJP MLA brother Subrata locked horns over organising camps for the community members concerned about an electoral roll revision. Then, on August 30, a delegation led by a local BJP leader met Leader of Opposition (LoP) Rahul Gandhi in Bihar, setting off alarm bells in the BJP. For the BJP, the path to power in Bengal lies in stitching together a pan-Hindu support base with Matuas at its core, and it likely cannot afford the emergence of a third alternative.

According to BJP insiders, the new rules could change the political equations in Bengal ahead of next year’s Assembly polls. “We are expecting more polarisation in the coming Assembly elections. Naturally, these new rules will not only help to secure the Matua vote, but also give confidence to the Hindu votebank,” said a senior BJP leader.

Having lost the Matua vote to the BJP in 2019 because of the promise of CAA, the TMC was quick to target the BJP over the latest change in immigration rules, pointing out that the cut-off date for acquiring citizenship had not been changed. Raising the matter in the Assembly on Thursday, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee said, “You (BJP) are anti-Bengali and your leaders are thieves. When elections are around, you start talking about CAA and NRC (National Register of Citizens). It has been five years. In 2019, you brought the CAA saying that everyone would get citizenship. But what happened? It is the biggest corrupt party.”

The BJP shot back, with MP Jagannath Sarkar saying, “The TMC is basically full of thieves… The Centre already implemented the CAA and people are getting citizenship cards. The new rules will help Matuas and that is the cause for the TMC’s anger.”