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Journalism of Courage
With exit polls predicting the BJP’s return to power in Nagaland along with coalition partner National Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) and the National People’s Front (NPF) battling for political relevance, here is a look at what is at stake for the major parties ahead of the declaration of results on Thursday.
With no other party having contested more than 23 seats, the ruling alliance did not face a full contest from any of its rivals. However, because there are such a large number of parties and candidates in the race this year and, more than anything, individual candidates pull more weight than parties in Nagaland, other parties are still hoping for a scenario that will call for post-poll alliances in government formation.
NDPP-BJP
The alliance, which was formed just ahead of the 2018 Assembly polls, is hoping to reassert its dominance in these elections. Exit polls have predicted a decisive win for the alliance and have especially predicted a significant increase in the NDPP’s wins from the last election. In the last six years, the NDPP in particular has been working towards pushing all its challengers into a corner. Formed by NPF rebels supporting Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio in 2017, with a host of known faces, it won 16 out of the 40 seats it contested. The BJP — which joined hands with the NDPP after turning its back to the NPF — had a much higher success rate, winning 12 of the 20 seats it contested.
However, as MLAs from other parties crossed over to it, culminating with 21 NPF MLAs joining it last year, the NDPP’s strength in the Assembly eventually expanded to 42 MLAs in the Assembly.
Various exit polls have predicted between 27 and 34 seats for the NDPP while predicting that the BJP will perform along 2018 lines. However, BJP leaders have asserted confidence that they will increase their presence in the state too.
NPF
The NPF — which had led the government in the state for 15 years — has now been reduced to a shadow of its former self, with the NDPP’s rise coming at its expense.
Despite the formation of the NDPP and the loss of Rio and his supporters, the party emerged as the single-largest party in the Assembly in 2018 with 27 seats. Now, after the developments of the last few years, the NPF contested 22 seats and party president Shurhozelie Liezietsu has admitted that the party has not been able to reorganise itself ahead of the elections.
Exit polls have predicted a single-digit tally for it while party leaders have been insisting that they will play a role in the government formation process to boost the morale of its candidates and workers. More than anything, as the party gears up to try and reorganise and rebuild itself over the next few years, securing a visible presence in the Assembly will be essential to the morale of its workers and leadership.
Congress
With zero seats and a 1.07 per cent vote share in the last elections, the Congress is fighting to make its presence felt in the state’s political scene. When an exit poll predicted up to three seats for it, some party leaders were taken by surprise.
Its position has steadily eroded over the years, from 23 seat wins in 2008, to eight in 2013 to zero five years later. To make its presence felt, the party has been regularly attacking the NDPP-BJP head-on with statements and press releases over the non-resolution of the Naga political problem, allegations of corruption, and lack of development. Senior leaders Mallikarjun Kharge and Shashi Tharoor also made their way to the state for brief visits. Thursday will reveal whether this was adequate for the Congress to change its fortunes.
