BJP up against Muslim-Maratha consolidation, onion belt unrest in North Maharashtra seats

In the 2019 Assembly polls, the BJP emerged as the leader in the region, with wins in 13 constituencies, followed by the undivided Sena at six, the undivided NCP at seven, the Congress at five, and the AIMIM at two, with the remaining two seats going to Independents.

The recent Lok Sabha elections for the region’s six parliamentary seats saw the Congress and BJP win two each, and the NCP (SP) and Shiv Sena (UBT) win one each. Five years earlier, it was total NDA dominance as the BJP won five seats and the Sena one.

Taking lessons from its poor Lok Sabha outcome, the Mahayuti has taken several course corrective measures to undo the damage, especially in the onion belt. In December 2023, the Narendra Modi government at the Centre banned the export of onions to tackle domestic supply issues and ensure steady prices. Before the ban, it had imposed a 40% export duty on onions. The export ban continued till April-end before being lifted on May 4, in the middle of the Lok Sabha elections. Later, on September 13, the Centre reduced the export duty on onions from 40% to 20%, a move aimed at diffusing the unrest among farmers and boosting their incomes.

In the 2019 Assembly polls, the BJP emerged as the leader in the region, with wins in 13 constituencies, followed by the undivided Sena at six, the undivided NCP at seven, the Congress at five, and the AIMIM at two, with the remaining two seats going to Independents.

The flip-flop on onion exports turned farmers in north Maharashtra, which accounts for 30% of the country’s onion production, against the Mahayuti. To what extent the corrective measures help the BJP reverse its losses in this belt remains something to watch out for. The BJP has its task cut out as Sharad Pawar’s strategy is to exploit farmers’ unrest for the Opposition alliance’s benefit.

The Maratha quota agitation led by activist Manoj Jarange Patil, which has turned against the BJP, will also be a factor to some extent in the region. However, BJP MLA and state Rural Development Minister Girish Mahajan, who has represented the Jamner Assembly constituency for six consecutive terms from 1995 to 2019, said, “In the Assembly elections, we will do much better in north Maharashtra. Reducing export duty on onions and free electricity for farmers have given them major relief.”

Religious polarisation

In the last six months, the Mahayuti’s high-decibel Hindutva agenda has also found resonance in north Maharashtra, where Nashik, a major Hindu pilgrimage centre, is located. Right-wing and affiliated outfits are using the “Hindu khatre mein hain (Hindus are in danger)” slogan to counter the alleged consolidation of Muslims in favour of the MVA.

The undercurrent of religious polarisation is set to be a crucial factor in this election. Alleging Muslim consolidation against the Mahayuti, Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis last month warned of “vote jihad”. Fadnavis cited the result in the Dhule Lok Sabha seat, where despite leading in five of its six Assembly segments, BJP candidate Subash Bhamre lost by under 4,000 votes to the Congress’s Shobha Bacchav, who polled 1.98 lakh votes in the Malegaon Central segment alone.

Though polling data does not support the BJP’s narrative, party insiders said polarisation was the only way to get a majority of Hindu votes. When Mahant Ramgiri Maharaj, a religious leader, made anti-Islam remarks in August, the government’s response was seen as soft. CM Eknath Shinde shared a dais with Ramgiri Maharaj 48 hours later and praised him for serving people. Though FIRs were filed, the religious leader was not arrested. In September, after news spread of his controversial remarks, BJP MLA Nitesh Rane threatened to “enter mosques to beat up Muslims” if anybody dared speak against Ramgiri Maharaj.

Big names who may contest

Among the prominent leaders in this region who are likely to contest the Assembly polls is NCP (SP) leader Eknath Khadse, who ended his four-decade-long association with the BJP to join the then undivided NCP in 2020. However, during the recent Lok Sabha polls, Khadse announced he was returning to the BJP and campaigned for its candidates, including his daughter-in-law Raksha Khadse, who contested and won the Raver parliamentary constituency and is now a Union Minister of State.

However, after the BJP did not reinduct him into the party and appoint him Governor, Khadse earlier this year joined the NCP (SP), which is likely to field his daughter and the party’s women’s wing chief Rohini Khadse from Muktainagar.

The region will have some well-established leaders contesting the polls, including the Ajit Pawar-led NCP’s OBC leader Chhagan Bhujbal, who is likely to contest from Yeola, which he has won in consecutive elections since 2004. The Shiv Sena is also likely to field at least two ministers in north Maharashtra, Dada Bhuse from Malegaon Outer and Gulabrao Patil in Jalgaon Rural.