Mehbooba Mufti stares at massive upset, as NC Gujjar leader pulls far ahead in Anantnag-Rajouri

It was a moment of great relief for the National Conference (NC), which found in Altaf, 67, a spiritual leader revered by the Gujjar and Bakerwal communities across Jammu and Kashmir. Anantnag-Rajouri, especially its newly added Rajouri and Poonch parts, has a substantial population of Gujjars and Bakerwals and the NC had so far failed to create a leader of prominence in the area.

A win for NC also holds value because on the other side is former CM and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) president Mehbooba Mufti and the Apni Party’s Zafar Iqbal Manhas. For Mufti, left out of the NC-Congress alliance, it was a battle to retain her political legacy and with a second straight loss from the constituency that will take a hit.

Manhas, on the other hand, is a leader of the Pahari community, which has been wooed by the BJP with ST status and is seen as enjoying the BJP’s tacit support. The People’s Conference, whose leader Sajad Lone is taking on Omar, the NC vice-president, in Baramulla, had officially offered its backing to Manhas.

In his campaign, Altaf kept Mufti in his sights. “In 2014, a political party (an apparent reference to the PDP) said only they can save Jammu and Kashmir from the BJP. They sought votes on this basis,” he said at a rally at Ashmuqam in Pahalgam. “Later, that same political party made an alliance with BJP. Today, they are saying only they can resolve (Kashmir’s) issues, but they are the ones who actually created them.”

The Mian family to which Altaf belongs has never lost an election, including Altaf himself, and his father Mian Bashir and grandfather Mian Nizam ud din, though their political loyalties have shifted between the NC and Congress. A member of the family represented the Kangan Assembly segment falling under the Srinagar parliamentary seat continuously from 1962 till 2014 (when Assembly polls were last held in J&K), barring only 1983. That year, Altaf’s father Mian Bashir contested from the Darhal Assembly seat in Rajouri, and won.

Altaf, a resident of Wangat village in Kangan in Central Kashmir, is a law graduate and a four-time MLA from Kangan, having won it from 1987 to 2014.

What helped the family retain the winning streak is the loyalty of the Gujjar community towards the Mian family, regarded highly by the Gujjars as their religious and spiritual guides. Mian Bashir also played a significant role in getting ST status for the Gujjar and Bakerwal communities.

Among the challenges that Altaf faced was the deepening ethnic divide between the Gujjar and Paharis, especially after the Centre also extended ST status to the Paharis just before the elections, and the “non-native” tag.

Altaf tried tackling this in his stump speeches, telling a crowd comprising Gujjars and Kashmiris at Ashmuqam: “They say I don’t belong to this constituency, I don’t have a vote here. But I definitely live here… When I go to Parliament, it would be (as if) everyone from Anantnag is in Parliament.”

Another challenge for Altaf was that the Gujjars and Bakerwals are nomads, who migrate as per the weather. The Anantnag-Rajouri election was originally scheduled for May 7 but was delayed till May 25 by the Election Commission, citing bad weather conditions. However, in the meantime, a sizeable chunk of the Bakerwals started their annual summer migration to the upper reaches of the Valley and will end up not voting.

The NC and PDP alleged that the elections were delayed to facilitate Manhas, who is a Pahari leader from the Valley and hence not as dependent on the Gujjar-Bakerwal vote. Altaf’s supporters call him the only leader who can bridge the gap between communities. “He commands respect among everyone — Gujjars, Paharis and even Kashmiris. That is why we need him the most,” said an NC leader from Anantnag.