As Left reveals its cards in Kerala, why Congress may still want Rahul Gandhi from Wayanad

In an interview to The Indian Express, Annie Raja said: “What is the gain for the Congress or Rahul Gandhi in contesting from Kerala? … The Congress has many options for a safer seat for its leadership. It can be in Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Karnataka … so many places.”

While the Congress announced on Wednesday that it will contest 16 seats in Kerala as part of its UDF alliance, it is yet to put out candidate names. The Congress state unit, however, said it wanted Rahul to contest from Wayanad again. In 2019, not only had the constituency helped the Congress leader save face, since he lost from family bastion Amethi in Uttar Pradesh to the BJP’s Smriti Irani, his candidature had also powered the party’s sweep in Kerala.

Rahul had won Wayanad that time with a massive 64.8% of the vote share, against another CPI candidate. In fact, Wayanad has been a safe Congress seat, with the party winning it the last three times by substantial margins – one reason why the party picked it for Rahul.

In the last Assembly polls too, held two years after the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress was a dominant party in the seven segments that comprise the Wayanad Lok Sabha seat. This was despite the LDF coming back to power in an unprecedented result for Kerala.

Vote shares in LS 2019, 2014, 2009.

In the 2014 and 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the Wayanad seat was won by late Congress leader M I Shanavas. The 2014 polls saw the closest contest between the two parties of the last three elections, but still 20,987 votes separated them. In 2009, Shanavas had won by 1.53 lakh votes.

In the 2021 Assembly elections, the Congress secured a combined vote share of 34.5% in the seven segments falling under Wayanad, compared to its main rival CPI(M)’s 25.6%. While the CPI has largely contested from the Wayanad seat in the Lok Sabha polls as part of the LDF, the Assembly segments mostly fall in the CPI(M)’s kitty. That year, the Congress won three of the seven segments, followed by two for the CPI(M), one for UDF and INDIA member Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), and one for an Independent.

In the 2016 Assembly polls, however, the CPI(M) was ahead of the Congress, with its combined vote share in Wayanad of 30.3% a shade more than the Congress’s 26.9%. The CPI(M) won three of Wayanad’s Assembly segments, followed by two for the Congress and one each for the IUML and an Independent.

In 2011, when the Congress came out on top, the gap was even closer, with the party getting 31.1% of the votes compared to the CPI(M)’s 29.5%. The UDF had swept all seven segments in Wayanad – the Congress won four, the IUML two and ally Socialist Janata (Democratic) one.

Vote shares in Assembly 2021, 2016, 2011.

From 1977 and 2004, before Wayanad was created by way of delimitation, the Lok Sabha seat was split across three constituencies – Calicut, Cannanore and Manjeri. In the nine elections held in that period, the Congress won Calicut and Cannanore six times each, but never won Manjeri. The Left parties won Calicut and Manjeri just once, and Cannanore three times.

The CPI’s only win in this period was from Cannanore in 1977.