Karnataka Elections: Cong has an edge in most exit polls, with JD(S) likely to take a hit

With the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls next year having already begun and at least four key states – Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana — going to polls later this year, the Karnataka results assume importance. In many ways, the Karnataka outcome is seen as a pointer to the 2024 general elections.

It is a high-stakes battle for both the Congress and BJP. Barring Himachal Pradesh, the Congress has not won a single state election since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. For the BJP, Karnataka is the only southern state where it is in power.

The poll projections:

* The India Today-Axis My India poll predicted that the Congress would get 122-140 seats, the BJP 62-80 seats, and the JD(S) 20-25 seats.

* The poll by Today’s Chanakya for News 24 channel gave the Congress 120 seats (plus or minus 11), the BJP 92 seats (plus or minus 11), and the JD(S) 12.

* According to the Republic TV-P Marq poll, the ruling BJP is projected to get 85-100 seats, the Congress 94-108 seats, and the JD(S) 24-32 seats.

Most of the polls predicted that the JD(S) may get 20-odd seats.

* The Times Now-ETG survey gave the Congress 113 seats, the BJP 85 seats, and the JD(S) 23 seats.

* The Zee News-Matrize poll predicted that the Congress would get 103-118 seats, BJP 79-94 seats, and the JD(S) 25-33 seats.

* The TV9-Polstrat poll predicted that the Congress would get 99-109 seats, the BJP 88-98 seats, and the JD(S) 21-26 seats.

* The ABP C-Voter survey gave the Congress 100-112 seats, the BJP 83-95 seats, and the JD(S) 21-29 seats.

* The India TV-CNX poll gave the Congress 110-120 seats, the BJP 80-90 seats, and the JD(S) 20-24 seats.

* Only one exit poll — News Nation-CGS — predicted a lead for the BJP. According to the poll, the ruling BJP would get 114 seats, the Congress 86, and the JD(S) 21.

According to preliminary data released by the Election Commission after voting closed at 6 pm, the voter turnout was 69.71 per cent.

The 2018 Assembly election results did not give any party a clear majority. After the results, the BJP was called to form the government as the single-largest party, with 104 MLAs in a House of 224. However, the Congress, which won 80 seats, and JD(S), which got 37, quickly came together and staked claim.

Within a year, the tables were reversed, as the Congress-JD(S) lost 17 of their MLAs, who resigned from the Assembly – after being holed up in a resort in Mumbai leading up to it — and switched sides to the BJP. Karnataka BJP stalwart B S Yediyurappa became the Chief Minister but resigned on July 26, 2021. He was replaced by Basavaraj Bommai, who, like Yediyurappa, hails from the Lingayat community.

The Congress’s best ever showing in Karnataka since 1989, when it won 178 seats, was in 1999 when the party got 132 seats. In 2013, when the party came to power, it had 122 seats.

Meanwhile, challenging the findings of the exit polls, Chief Minister Bommai said: “Every agency or channel has given a different figure… The party has the complete ground report which has given an absolute majority for the BJP. Let us wait for the exact results on May 13. There will be no resort politics this time as the BJP will get clear majority. The JD(S) need not become the kingmaker.”

JD(S) leader H D Kumaraswamy indicated that his party may not fare as well as expected, saying that the party lacked resources in as many as 25 constituencies.