In January 2018, the BJP-led central government had launched the Aspirational Districts Programme (ADP) that sought to quickly and effectively transform the 112 most under-developed districts across the country. In Jharkhand, as many as 19 of its 24 districts fall under the ADP. These districts account for 66 of the state’s 81 Assembly seats. Ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the first election since the inception of the ADP, the BJP was in power at the Centre and in the state. The saffron party led 45 Assembly segments that fall within Lok Sabha seats in aspirational districts, leaving its rivals far behind – the Congress led in 11 segments, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) in six, and NDA ally All-Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU) in four. Overall, the BJP had won 11 of the state’s 14 Lok Sabha seats, the JMM, Congress and AJSU winning one each. In terms of vote shares across the aspirational segments, the BJP led with 50.7%, followed by the Congress at 16.08% and the JMM at 11.33%. Other parties had significantly smaller vote shares owing to the limited number of seats contested as part of alliances. While the AJSU managed a 3.65% vote share, the RJD got 3.02%. The ex-CM Babulal Marandi-led Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM), allied with the Congress and JMM at the time, got 4.49%. The BJP had the highest average victory margin in the Assembly segments that fall in aspirational districts at almost 57,000 votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. While NDA member AJSU recorded an average margin of 42,000 votes, the JMM and Congress trailed at around 22,000 and 20,000 votes, respectively. But months later, in the 2019 Assembly polls, the JMM-led alliance ousted the BJP to form the state government with Hemant Soren as chief minister. In the aspirational districts, the JMM won 24 Assembly seats, followed by the BJP that won 18 contesting independently. The JMM’s allies at the time won 18 seats – the Congress at 14, the JVM at three, and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) at one. While the AJSU won two seats, the CPI(ML)(L) and NCP won one seat each, with the remaining two going to Independents. Overall, the new ruling alliance led by the JMM won 39 seats that fall in aspirational districts. In terms of vote shares, the BJP dropped from its 2019 Lok Sabha mark to 32.55%, with the JMM gaining to 18.72%. While the AJSU and JVM also improved to 8.43% and 5.67%, the Congress fell marginally to 14.4% in the aspirational seat. The average winning margins of each party show how the Assembly election was far more competitive than the Lok Sabha polls that year. While the BJP’s average margin drastically declined to under 19,000 votes, as did the AJSU’s to 15,500 votes, the JMM and Congress’s average margins stayed largely stable at about 23,500 and 20,000 votes, respectively. The RJD, which failed to make an impact in the Lok Sabha polls, managed to win its only Assembly seat by over 24,000 votes. It’s worth noting that in Assembly polls, compared to Lok Sabha elections, there have been more candidates and parties vying for the same electorate, likely contributing to these reduced victory margins. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, which saw the NDA suffer setbacks in the Hindi heartland states, the BJP managed to recover from its 2019 Assembly poll loss to lead in 37 Assembly segments in the aspiration districts, with its ally AJSU leading in another two segments. The Opposition INDIA bloc led in 25 aspiration segments – the Congress in 13 and the JMM in 12. Independents led in two segments. The JVM, a notable regional player, had merged with the BJP in 2020. Overall, the BJP still led in the state’s Lok Sabha contest despite dropping to wins in eight seats, with AJSU’s one win taking the alliance’s tally to nine. Both the JMM and Congress improved their tallies to three and two, respectively, putting the INDIA bloc at five seats. In terms of vote shares in aspirational seats, the BJP managed to maintain its lead and improve from the previous Assembly poll to 44.65%, as did the Congress to 18.94%. The JMM dropped to 14.41% while the AJSU fell considerably to 2.15%. The RJD recorded a slight improvement to 3.48%. The 2024 Lok Sabha polls saw the BJP, JMM and Congress all improve their winning margins at the Assembly segment level in aspirational districts. While the BJP recovered its average margin to 68,000 votes, the JMM and Congress significantly improved to around 50,000 and 51,000 votes, respectively. The AJSU’s average margin saw a slight increase to 20,000 votes. Performance of aspirational districts Development in the aspirational districts is measured using 49 indicators under five broad themes – Health & Nutrition, Education, Agriculture & Water Resources, Financial Inclusion & Skill Development, and Basic Infrastructure. A NITI Aayog dashboard tracking the development of these districts shows that in the first ranking list published in December 2019, seven Jharkhand districts were among the top 10 performing districts across India on different themes. However, eight districts were in the bottom 10 nationally across various themes. Ranchi, the state capital, and Simdega were in the top 10 in Health and Nutrition, while Bokaro, Dumka and Purbi Singhbhum were in bottom 10. In fact, Ranchi was the best ranked district in the country on Health and Nutrition. In Agriculture and Water Resources, no Jharkhand district was in the top 10, but three districts – Bokaro, Garhwa and Giridih – were in bottom 10. In the Basic Infrastructure theme, Pakur, Palamu and Godda were in the top 10, with no district in bottom 10. No district in the state was in the top 10 under the Education theme. However, Dumka was in the bottom 10. Simdega and Latehar districts were in the top 10, while Khunti was in bottom 10 in the Financial Inclusion and Skill Development theme. Almost five years later, as of March 2024, four Jharkhand districts are among the top 10 performers in three themes – Health and Nutrition, Basic Infrastructure, and Financial Inclusion & Skill Development. However, eight districts are in the bottom 10 in three themes – Health and Nutrition, Education, and Financial Inclusion & Skill Development. Ranchi maintained its top ranking in the Health and Nutrition theme. However, five districts – Ramgarh, Hazaribagh, Purbi Singhbhum, Pakur and Chatra – are now in the bottom 10. Under the Agriculture & Water Resources theme, no Jharkhand district figured in either the top or bottom 10 districts. In Education, while there is no district from the state in the top 10, there are two districts – Dumka and Chatra – in bottom 10. Two districts – Palamu and Pakur – are among the top 10 performing districts on the Basic Infrastructure theme. No district is in the bottom 10. On the theme of Financial Inclusion & Skill Development, only Simdega is in the top 10 districts, while Khunti has remained in the bottom 10 since the inception of the ADP.
