In North Kashmir final phase, Lone, Rashid face acid test; Jamaat braces for future arc

North Kashmir, which comprises Baramulla, Kupwara and Bandipore districts, reflects the entire gamut of Kashmir politics. From separatists to mainstream parties such as the National Conference (NC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), all have a presence in the region. Both the Peoples Conference (PC) and the AIP started from, and have their core bases in, Kupwara district.

North Kashmir was an NC stronghold before the emergence of the PDP in 1999. In the 2002 J&K Assembly polls, the NC secured nine seats in the region. In 2008, the NC’s tally came down to seven seats, while the PDP won six seats. In the last Assembly elections held in 2014, the NC’s tally dropped further down to three while the PDP managed to get seven.

Amidst this, political dynamics in north Kashmir have changed drastically in recent years.

In 2002, Sofi Mohidin, an Independent candidate, who was an aide of Lone, won from the Handwara Assembly seat. Lone was at the time associated with the separatist grouping Hurriyat Conference and not involved in mainstream politics. When Mohidin entered the fray, he was dubbed Lone’s “proxy”. This led to a row within the Hurriyat, which has stayed away from elections, and even led to its split as separatist leader Syed Ali Shah Geelani wanted Lone and the Peoples Conference to disassociate with the grouping.

Lone left the Hurriyat, and in 2014, joined mainstream electoral politics. While Lone won from the Handwara seat, his party colleague Bashir Ahmad Dar secured the Kupwara seat.

In 2008, Rashid, a government employee with Jammu and Kashmir Projects Construction Corporation (JKPCC), made a surprise entry into electoral politics and won from the Langate Assembly seat in Kupwara district.

While Lone has built his pockets of support in Kupwara, Rashid managed to gain some following across the three North Kashmir districts.

For Lone and Rashid, who are both facing charges from the PDP and the NC of being the BJP’s “proxies” in the Valley, the final phase of polls holds crucial significance.

In the recent Lok Sabha polls, Lone lost to Rashid in the Baramulla constituency. He is now contesting from two Assembly seats — Handwara and Kupwara, pulling out all the stops to clinch both.

Until a few months ago, the AIP was seen as a small party that did not have a presence beyond Rashid’s native Langate constituency. That changed after the Lok Sabha elections when Rashid took the lead in 15 of the 18 Assembly segments which are part of the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat.

After his win in the Lok Sabha polls, Rashid is hoping to consolidate his party’s base. This time, the AIP, which is not yet a registered political party, has backed the candidates in 35 seats across the Kashmir division, 15 of which fall in North Kashmir.

Jamaat-e-Islami, the banned socio-political organisation, also has a presence in the three districts of North Kashmir. A Jamaat panel, which is engaged in talks with the Centre, has fielded five candidates for the third phase.

The outcome of the poll results and the votes polled by its candidates may also determine the political direction of the Jamaat in future. A green signal by its voters and cadre would indicate that the Jamaat might continue its talks with New Delhi. If the outcome is otherwise, there could be differences among the organisation on the approach to elections.