Haryana, J&K Assembly Election Results 2024: Leg-up for BJP ahead of Maharashtra, Jharkhand, task cut out for Congress

The verdict holds multiple messages.

The Congress hoped a victory in Haryana would have strengthened its narrative that the BJP was losing its grip. And that the Congress — as also the INDIA bloc — is reviving under Rahul Gandhi with his aggressive focus on caste mobilisation. A 240-rattled BJP, on the other hand, wanted a win to dispel the perception that June 4 had pushed it onto the backfoot.

The BJP managed to dispel both, the Congress made noises like a sore loser.

The primary message of these elections – the first to be held after the Lok Sabha polls – is that the BJP machinery still retains its core votes and the Congress has a long way to go before it can unseat the BJP in what has become its strongholds in the 2014-2023 period.

In Haryana, a state he Congress was sure of winning – almost all exit polls predicted this – and cried foul after its defeat, the BJP seemed set to win 48 of the 90 seats, with the Congress at 37.

Even in terms of vote share, the BJP, with 39.94% votes, was above the Congress’s 39.09%. The Haryana victory of the BJP is also significant given the aggressive attack that the Congress and the opposition had been waging against it over caste.

The BJP has managed to counter the perception that OBC as well as Dalit voters are deserting it in the face of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s repeated charge that the BJP was anti-Dalit and anti-OBC and that it was standing in the way of the caste census.

The Jammu verdict, too, is significant for the BJP as it trumped the Congress in direct contests in the region which matters for it. Recording the highest vote share of 25.64%, the BJP is set to win 29 seats in the Jammu region, with the Congress bagging just one. In Jammu and Kashmir, it can claim victory with six seats but only as riding on the coat-tails of the National Conference that won 42 of the 90 seats when results last came in.

The NC’s vote share was 23.43% and the Congress’s 11.97%.

The message as far as the BJP is concerned is loud and clear: it has the decisive upper hand in national politics. For the Congress, it’s a wake-up call yet again: that it needs more than an anti-Modi campaign and new-found rhetoric on caste to trounce the BJP. Its Constitution-is-at-peril refrain may also have lost its edge after the June 4 verdict.

The verdict has come as a big boost to the BJP as it heads for crucial Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand next month, followed by Delhi in January-February.

This also has the potential to puncture the Congress narrative that the BJP’s curve is downward. Since the winter of 2018, the Congress has not won a single Assembly election in Northern India barring the victory in Himachal Pradesh in 2022. A victory in Haryana would have added spring to its step, allowing it to approach the elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand on a stronger footing. But now, as some of its leaders admitted in private, the Congress appears to have snatched a defeat from the jaws of victory in Haryana.

A Haryana victory would have helped the Congress at the seat-sharing table in Maharashtra and Jharkhand and possibly Delhi later. The poor show in Jammu is also staring in the Congress’s face. It has proved to be the weak link in the NC-Congress alliance. While the NC won 42 seats, up from 15 in 2014, the Congress numbers almost halved. The party, which had won 12 seats in 2014, managed to get just six.

The party’s allies have taken note. “What is important is that there was a fertile ground to win. They need to introspect why they lose whenever there is a direct fight. They similarly lost in Madhya Pradesh. For Maharashtra, seat-sharing talks are on. But with the new reality in Haryana, we will also look at that. What is important is to get the current dispensation out. We have to also look at ground realities,” Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Priyanka Chaturvedi told The Indian Express.

BJP workers celebrate the party’s win in the Haryana Assembly polls. (Photo: PTI)

Although the BJP’s state units in both Haryana and J&K focused on local issues during the campaign, the flagship schemes had been a crucial part of the BJP campaign in the rural areas keeping Modi ki Guarantee slogan as a theme. In Haryana, issues like farm laws to protest by women wrestlers and the uneasiness over the Agniveer scheme were heavily loaded against the BJP, but it managed to beat back anti- incumbency.

The outcome is also expected to strengthen the control of both Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah on the organisation. The key players for both the states were handpicked by the two. Both will continue to have their stamp on every decision of the party, including the selection of the new party president, BJP sources pointed out.

Wrestler and Congress candidate from Julana seat Vinesh Phogat celebrates her win. (Photo: PTI)

It will also leave a positive message for national president J P Nadda, who is expected to be replaced by a new party president. The BJP which is currently in talks with its allies in the NDA for seat distribution both in Maharashtra and Jharkhand will be emboldened.

With the results boosting the morale of the workers across the country, its ideological parent RSS, with which its ties faced some strains, is also expected to throw its full weight around the party’s electioneering in these states. The RSS is considered to have a robust network on the ground in Maharashtra and border areas of Jharkhand.