EPS meets Shah, AIADMK, BJP begin formal talks for a tie-up

However, sources said, the compulsions of political survival and pressure from Delhi have caused Palaniswami to change his mind.

An AIADMK leader from southern Tamil Nadu, seen as close to Palaniswami, said the party was even “ready to play second fiddle”. “If they (the BJP) listen to our concerns and agree, an AIADMK-BJP alliance is possible.”

The AIADMK had first aligned with the BJP during its low period following supremo J Jayalalithaa’s demise in 2016, and the party’s split. Several decisions taken by the AIADMK government at the time were seen as influenced by the BJP.

Following the DMK’s sweep of the 2019 Lok Sabha and 2021 Assembly elections in Tamil Nadu, Palaniswami had pulled away from the BJP and eventually parted ways in September 2023.

However, after the DMK’s emphatic performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, its scooping up of bypolls and civic elections, as well as the emergence of its chief M K Stalin as the face of the anti-BJP Opposition in the South, Palaniswami’s options have been narrowing.

Sources said that at Tuesday’s talks, one of the decisions taken by the AIADMK and BJP was to step up individual campaigns against the DMK government and Stalin, particularly on the issue of corruption. The BJP believes Stalin is evoking emotional issues such as delimitation and language policy in order to deflect attention from this issue.

Among the conditions the AIADMK has laid, sources said, is the formation of a high-powered steering committee to oversee dealings with the BJP – whose authority, importantly, would outrank Tamil Nadu BJP president K Annamalai’s. Thus giving the impression that the AIADMK top leadership is conferring directly with the BJP high command. Annamalai’s relentless attacks on AIADMK leaders are believed to have been one of the key reasons for the break-up of the alliance in 2023.

The AIADMK also wants the BJP to drop any overtures towards party rebels T T V Dhinakaran and O Panneerselvam. The BJP had earlier been keen on Palaniswami bringing them back into the AIADMK fold to strengthen the party.

A confidant of Palaniswami said he is clear-eyed about what the BJP wants. “They are looking for control. They won’t hesitate to split our party if we resist. This is not a choice; this is damage control.”

A senior BJP leader confirmed the conditions laid by the AIADMK, but said what was encouraging was that the party had not called for Annamalai’s removal. To get around the hierarchy issues, the BJP could put senior leaders such as H Raja and Nainar Nagendra in the steering committee.

The BJP leader added that the deal was as good as done. “Amit Shahji has said categorically that we welcome the AIADMK. Now the details will be worked out.”

The BJP has been serious about expanding its footprint in Tamil Nadu, and in the last Lok Sabha polls, while it did not win any seat, it saw an impressive increase in its vote share. This could prove the difference between victory and defeat in the 2026 Assembly polls.

In the 2021 Assembly polls, when the AIADMK and BJP were together, their alliance including the PMK had got 33.29% of the votes, compared to 37.7% for the DMK-led alliance. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the DMK alliance got 46.97% of the votes, with the AIADMK-DMDK tie-up getting 23.05% vote share, and the NDA alliance consisting of the BJP, PMK and Dhinakaran getting 18.28% of the votes.

Narrowing AIADMK options

Till four months ago, as a top AIADMK leader and former minister told The Indian Express, Palaniswami was seeking to build an independent coalition, reaching out to Left parties and Thol Thirumavalavan’s Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), which are currently a part of the ruling DMK alliance. Another plan was to stitch together an alliance with actor-turned-politician Vijay’s Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK).

However, the leader said: “The Left and VCK remain firmly with the DMK, while the TVK lacks a formal political framework for talks. Most importantly, Palaniswami is unwilling to negotiate as an equal with Vijay (who just unveiled his political plans).”

Another senior AIADMK leader, who is considered a trusted aide of Palaniswami, said: “If the AIADMK had managed to form an alternative alliance, the BJP would not even be an option. If the AIADMK-Vijay option was on the cards, DMK allies too would have joined us. But every path has been exhausted now.”

From the BJP side, there was little opposition to begin with. The party’s national leadership, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Shah, has long believed that an alliance with the AIADMK would have significantly improved its performance in last year’s Lok Sabha elections.

A deal that does not seek to curtail the “unconditional freedom” to Annamalai, who continues to have Modi’s support, is, therefore, a win-win for the BJP.

A top RSS leader from Coimbatore confirmed that the leadership of the BJP has been in “direct talks” with the AIADMK’s. “Delhi has also advised Annamalai to moderate his tone,” the leader said.

Apart from political, Palanswami has other considerations on his mind. Several senior party leaders have faced the heat from Central agencies such as the Enforcement Directorate and Income Tax in the past, and many corruption cases are still technically ongoing.

At the same time, not appearing weak – particularly when compared to Stalin – will be the biggest consideration for Palaniswami. The RSS leader said the Sangh was mindful of this. “If the alliance moves forward, it will be on the BJP’s terms – but with enough concessions to allow Palaniswami to save face.”

However, an AIADMK leader pointed out, the reversal is already evident. “Sonia Gandhi once travelled to Chennai to meet Karunanidhi, sealing a Congress-DMK alliance. Many national leaders, including the BJP’s, had visited Jayalalithaa to negotiate ties. But now, Palaniswami flies to Delhi to meet Shah… It shows the ground the AIADMK has lost.”