Eyeing future wars, both Shinde Sena-BJP & MVA claim first blood in rural poll battle

On December 18, 7,751 gram panchayats went to elections, whose outcome was declared on December 20. The BJP claimed it won over 2,300 seats in these polls, with CM Shinde-led Balasahebanchi Shiv Sena claiming to have won 802 seats, which put the ruling alliance’s tally at about 3,100 seats.

The NCP, Congress and Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) – the MVA’s constituents – claimed to have won over 1, 300, 900 and 650 seats, respectively, which took the MVA’s tally to about 2,850.

Following the results, with each party engaging in political one-upmanship, the BJP claimed that it has clinched the gram panchayat polls in the state.

Contesting the BJP’s claims, Maharashtra Congress president Nana Patole said, “BJP claims are false, The Congress party has won more than 900 seats, and the MVA has come first in the state.”

A senior Congress leader said, “No one should be swayed by the claims made by the BJP as the elections are not fought on party lines,” charging that “The BJP projects the numbers of its seats very high. It is never that high, that is not possible”.

Political analysts say the rural polls have allowed both the political groupings an opportunity to amplify the claims that they have been making since June, when the Shinde-led rebel Sena faction raised a banner of revolt against the Uddhav Sena and toppled the MVA government in collaboration with the BJP. Subsequently, they formed their own government, with Shinde taking over as the CM and top BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis becoming his deputy.

After a prolonged face-off with both the factions claiming the name and symbol of the Shiv Sena and its founder Bal Thackeray’s legacy, the Election Commission allotted, in an interim order, the names of the Balasahebanchi Shiv Sena and the Shiv Sena-Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray to the Shinde and Uddhav factions respectively. Both camps have also claimed that they have the support of the people.

Hemant Desai, a senior political analyst, said, “There are many crucial things under consideration here. One is that their (Shinde Sena’s) election results can challenge the claim that Uddhav Thackeray has a sympathy wave in Maharashtra after the split in the party.”

Senior Uddhav Sena leaders said, “There is a belief among voters that the BJP is more popular in urban Maharashtra than in rural parts of the state. Hence, if the Shinde-Fadnavis government is to face the elections now, then they will lose pan-Maharashtra. The BJP is now trying to make up these numbers and undermine that belief,” adding that “This is the classic expected narrative. BJP wants to show it has mass support, that the Shinde-Fadnavis government has mass support. So it is just making up these numbers now.”

Another Uddhav Sena leader said, “Everyone saw what Shinde did toward the party. It is betrayal. If he faces elections today, no one will support him. By telling these lies of support, his government wants to fool the people into thinking they have support from the masses”.

Building a public opinion in their favour ahead of the 2023 Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections would be a “good strategy”, a senior Congress leader said.

He added, “There is no doubt that BJP wants to build a narrative and wants people to believe MVA is lying. This is to make everyone support the BJP and Shinde alliance. So when the time comes for these voters to cast their vote, like in the Mumbai municipal corporation elections, they will be swayed.”

Desai said the BJP got “similar” results in the 2014 gram panchayat elections, adding that “it benefited the party in subsequent elections. It also increased the confidence of party.”