Minuses also plus: Civic body by civic body, BJP, Shinde Sena work out alliance maths

Incidentally, when Shinde and Fadnavis had taken oath of office as CM and Deputy CM, respectively, on June 30, they had pledged to work together and contest all elections in alliance. Last month, Shinde had publicly announced that the BJP and his party would contest the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) polls together. Similarly, BJP state leaders had also pledged a pre-poll alliance for all upcoming elections.

So, why did the BJP and the Shinde Sena discard the possibility of a unified pre-poll alliance for all civic elections?

BJP insiders called it “a tactical move”. “It will allow both parties to assert their respective identities, and grow as a result. But each and every decision will be taken keeping in sight the common political agenda — to fight the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) of the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), Congress and NCP. There will be no compromise on any partnership with MVA constituents.”

A senior BJP functionary gave the examples of Mumbai and Thane civic bodies. “Across the 227 wards in the BMC polls — likely to be held in early 2023 — the BJP and Shinde Sena will contest in alliance. The BJP, which is stronger in Mumbai, will have the upper hand over the Shinde Sena there, whereas Shinde’s writ will run in the Thane Municipal Corporation elections. He will be the deciding factor, with the BJP playing a secondary role,” the leader said.

Beyond Mumbai and Thane, both the BJP and Shinde Sena will explore partnerships with local outfits to expand and enhance their respective electoral fortunes, based on the ground situation.

Across Maharashtra, there are 27 Municipal Corporations. These include BMC (Mumbai), Thane, Pimpri-Chinchwad, Nashik, Dhule, Akola, Bhiwandi, Vasai-Virar, Mira-Bhayander, Jalgaon, Parbhani, Ahmednagar, Chandrapur, Ichalkaranji, Nanded, Panvel, Latur, Kolhapur, Kalyan-Dombivali, Pune, Navi Mumbai, Malegaon, Sangli-Miraj-Kupwad, Amravati, Nagpur, Aurangabad and Ulhasnagar.

A senior minister in the Shinde faction said, “The CM and Deputy CM are meticulously planning the poll strategy. Our plan is to wipe out the Uddhav Sena from Mumbai and Maharashtra.”

He added, “The BJP will draw elaborate plans to make the state Congress- and NCP-mukt. So, even if we fight against each other in some urban local bodies, it will only be to grab the space of both the ruling party as well as the Opposition for ourselves.”

While conceding that this is a daunting task, a senior minister said: “In the past, the BJP and Shiv Sena (undivided) were in alliance in the state government. But they fought each other fiercely over the BMC and Kalyan-Dombivali corporation. Post-polls, they again forged alliances in both bodies.”

Another significant aspect in these plans is the role of Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). An alliance between the Shinde Sena and MNS, to consolidate and fight the Uddhav Sena in urban local bodies where the latter is strong and the BJP has no stake, is also being discussed. So far, whether the MNS will become an alliance partner of the BJP-Shinde Sena combine, or play a covert role in the BMC polls, remains to be seen.

A MNS leader, requesting anonymity, said, “It’s a fact that the leaders of the BJP and the Shinde camp are holding meetings with Raj Thackeray. We won’t accept any piecemeal offer. Something concrete has to evolve.” He added, “The MNS is not averse to working with the BJP and the Shinde Sena, provided we get our due.”

BJP sources said, “Every election is different, and requires a different strategy. So, based on our surveys and the situation, we’ll evolve our strategy.”

Whatever be the case, the BJP and Shinde Sena have declared they will contest the 2024 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in alliance. Shinde had already spelt out his political roadmap during the Monsoon Session of the Legislative Assembly, when he said, “The BJP and our party will win 200-plus seats (out of a total of 288) in the next Assembly polls, and 42-plus out of the 48 in the Lok Sabha.” Similar optimism has also been exuded by Fadnavis at multiple fora in the recent past.