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This is an archive article published on September 29, 2023

The Modi template: Why BJP is fielding Union Ministers in MP polls

This strategy, is likely an attempt to neutralise anti-incumbency by projecting Shivraj Singh Chouhan as just one among the party’s many leaders. It also enthuses social groups that will want one of their own as CM.

Narendra Modi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi waves at supporters as he arrives to address BJP's 'Karyakarta Mahakumbh', in Bhopal. (Twitter;@narendramodi)
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The Modi template: Why BJP is fielding Union Ministers in MP polls
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The BJP’s decision to field Union Ministers Narendra Singh Tomar, Prahlad Singh Patel, and Faggan Singh Kulaste — and four other MPs — in the coming Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections took many by surprise earlier this week and indicates that the party may be looking to turn to a new leadership team after the polls.

In these surprise inclusions, many saw a signal that the chief minister’s post is open now and that the BJP may either choose to not field Shivraj Singh Chouhan or project him as just one among a collective leadership to combat any anti-incumbency factor against him.

The strategy is not entirely new but may have new elements. In the 2003 state elections, Chouhan himself was a four-time Lok Sabha MP when he was asked to contest against then CM Digvijaya Singh of the Congress from Raghogarh. The BJP won but Chouhan lost. After being sent to the Lok Sabha again in 2004, he was brought back as the CM the following year and won the bypoll from Budhni soon after.

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Similarly, Sarbananda Sonowal was elected as MP in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and named a Union Minister. But in the Assam elections two years later, he won from Majuli and went on to become the CM.

This time, however, there are three central ministers in the fray in Madhya Pradesh. Even if all three and the party win, only one gets the top job. “This is a tacit signal that the CM question will be decided after the polls,” said a BJP leader.

Expectation of change

A BJP leader, who did not wish to be named said, “One of the few predictable things about the BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi is that every election will be as keenly fought as possible, whether it seems a winning or a losing election. No election will be taken lightly. The fielding of big guns will send out the signal that the BJP is going all out to win Madhya Pradesh. They are also likely to win their seats. And it will send out a positive message to voters who may be weary of Chouhan by now.”

Another party insider said that sending the signal that the CM’s post is up for grabs is expected to enthuse some social groups. “People from the Chambal division or the Thakur caste may fancy that Tomar has a chance. Tribal voters will sense that the state may get an Adivasi CM in Kulaste. The OBC Lodhis may fancy the chances of Patel while Malwa residents may see (BJP national general secretary) Kailash Vijayvargiya, who did not seem too happy with the decision, as having a chance,” said the functionary. “Expectation of a change of face works better for the party than following the same template for decades.”

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A BJP leader said experimentation had been a part of Modi’s template for some years now. For instance, the BJP did not repeat a single sitting councillor to win the 2017 Municipal Corporation of Delhi polls; it dropped all 10 sitting Chhattisgarh MPs in 2019 to sweep the Lok Sabha polls after the Assembly poll debacle a few months earlier; and in Gujarat, Vijay Rupani and his Cabinet resigned a year before the 2022 Assembly polls. Significantly, Rupani and his deputy CM till 2021, Nitin Patel, were not even fielded in the Assembly elections.

Such moves, another BJP leader said, disrupt conventional notions of leaders growing as they attain seniority as a Union Minister may get demoted to MLA to enhance the party’s winning chances. In his recent speech in Bhopal, the PM drew a sort of parity between Chouhan, the five Union Ministers on the stage, and lakhs of party workers who had gathered to hear him. He addressed those on stage, and then those in the crowd, as a collective without naming any individual leaders.

Political scientist Sajjan Kumar said, “In the initial Assembly elections, like in Delhi and Bihar, after 2014, the BJP tried to win on the PM’s face and lost. Gradually, it has dawned upon the party that Modi’s face works when he is a direct stakeholder (in Lok Sabha polls) but not necessarily when he isn’t. So, established faces from the Centre are being sent back to contest in states to add local heft to the campaign.”

Vikas Pathak is deputy associate editor with The Indian Express and writes on national politics. He has over 17 years of experience, and has worked earlier with The Hindustan Times and The Hindu, among other publications. He has covered the national BJP, some key central ministries and Parliament for years, and has covered the 2009 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls and many state assembly polls. He has interviewed many Union ministers and Chief Ministers. Vikas has taught as a full-time faculty member at Asian College of Journalism, Chennai; Symbiosis International University, Pune; Jio Institute, Navi Mumbai; and as a guest professor at Indian Institute of Mass Communication, New Delhi. Vikas has authored a book, Contesting Nationalisms: Hinduism, Secularism and Untouchability in Colonial Punjab (Primus, 2018), which has been widely reviewed by top academic journals and leading newspapers. He did his PhD, M Phil and MA from JNU, New Delhi, was Student of the Year (2005-06) at ACJ and gold medalist from University Rajasthan College in Jaipur in graduation. He has been invited to top academic institutions like JNU, St Stephen’s College, Delhi, and IIT Delhi as a guest speaker/panellist. ... Read More

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