Aurangzeb, bulldozer, hijab: why are moderates Fadnavis and Shivraj sounding so shrill? Will hate pay or is the worm turning?

Sarma’s visits to Manipur followed Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s four-day stay there and, under normal circumstances, one would have thought that Sarma, with his pan-Northeast links, would be successful. This has led to lazy chatter among some BJP rivals that the current state of affairs, of a Hindu Meitei versus Christian Kuki divide, suits the party.

Five years ago, the RSS had viewed Fadnavis and Adityanath as possible “national” leaders of the BJP in the post-Modi era, with Sarma also joining that list in recent years. The Sangh is known to think long term, and not in terms of five-year plans. Of the three, many in the RSS saw — and continue to see – Adityanath as the torchbearer of the Hindutva narrative. Conversations with Sangh figures in Maharashtra indicate that Fadnavis was, in contrast, seen as fulfilling the gap of a centrist, coalitional politician, if that came to be the need of the moment.

But Fadnavis is losing the plot. This happened first after the 2019 Maharashtra elections when power seemed to be slipping out of his hands. It led to that hasty, nocturnal swearing-in ceremony where he took oath as CM and NCP rebel Ajit Pawar as Deputy CM, an arrangement that lasted barely a few hours. The plan was undone by the wily and experienced Pawar, who went on to put in place the Maha Vikas Aghadi, led by the Shiv Sena’s Uddhav Thackeray as CM.

The second major setback for Fadnavis came when he was forced to become Deputy CM under the more junior Eknath Shinde from the Sena’s breakaway group, after the BJP managed to return to power. It was unprecedented for a leader who had been a CM to agree to a junior role. It did nothing for Fadnavis’s stature. His “Aurangzeb ki aulad” words now neither suit his persona, nor his politics. Instead, they show a desperation on his part to be somehow accepted.

The BJP’s “moderate” leaders obviously are gambling that their words would polarise the situation along Hindu-Muslim lines, in what has been the BJP’s tried and tested ploy to pull voters to its side. And, more importantly, endear Fadnavis and Chouhan to the party brass, which may have developed reservations about what they were about.

However, even if “Aurangzeb ki aulad” makes ideological sense to some, can it yield the BJP the political dividends it did in the past? There are enough indications that people may be getting that wee bit weary of this old “ghisa pita (tired old)” technique.

The hijab controversy in Karnataka, for example, could not overcome the anger against the perception of the BJP government as a “40% commission sarkara”. Will Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, repeat Karnataka?

The south has rejected the BJP, it seems. But the mood is undergoing a change even in North India. This may not be the case in Uttar Pradesh, barring parts of western UP, but travel from Himachal Pradesh to Punjab, Haryana and Delhi, and people seem a little troubled by the unceasing diatribe against Muslims. “Bhagwan toh ek hai, rehna toh saath-saath hai (God is one, we have to live together),” a truck driver said.

These people are looking for a new narrative — searching for a freshness in what Modi has to offer them.

Today, people are also hurting economically; the lower down the ladder you go, the worse it gets. Only 26% of women are in the labour force. Of the 28 crore registered on the e-shram portal, 94% say they earn less than Rs 10,000 per month. Even at the higher end, there are barely 900 seats for 12 lakh IAS applicants. You may be able to get the job of a delivery boy in a city, but that cannot be the face of young aspirational India.

It is true that Modi’s popularity remains more or less intact, and the BJP may think it will see the party through in 2024. Many say that “we voted for the Congress this time”, be it in Karnataka or Himachal Pradesh, “but we want Modi in Delhi”. And yet there is a subtle shift discernible in conversations. Economic difficulties are making people restive. “Our jobs are going, our incomes are not increasing, but our expenses are mounting by the day,” a lower-level government servant in Himachal Pradesh told this reporter dejectedly.

Will the Hindu-Muslim conundrum be able to cover, yet again, the growing pain of people in their daily lives? Fadnavis and Chouhan seem to think so, but that remains to be seen. By going “extreme”, they are diluting what was their USP. As it is, the BJP lacks strong leaders in states today, and those who had shaped up — like Chouhan and Fadnavis, with long years of experience in governance — are not playing to their strengths. This will not only weaken the BJP in states, as we saw in Karnataka, but may also impact the fight for the Delhi gaddi.

The question then remains: Why are these “moderate” BJP leaders resorting to extreme tactics, and who are they catering to? Their own party leadership to gain favour and become more acceptable? Or to a wider audience? Can economic distress and anti-incumbency be countered by fear and divide, as has happened so many times in the past? Or, is the worm now turning, even if it is ever so slightly?

(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 10 Lok Sabha elections)