As TDP-led alliance rises, Jagan changes candidates, banks on welfare schemes

The then incumbent N Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desam Party (TDP), was reduced to only 3 Lok Sabha and 23 Assembly seats with a vote share of 39.1%.

This time, while Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy is banking on his welfare schemes, dubbed “navaratnalu (nine gems)”, and the support of the SCs (Scheduled Castes), STs (Scheduled Tribes), and minorities to help the YSRCP sail through, he faces some stiff challenges.

Firstly, the TDP, which leads an alliance comprising the BJP and Pawan Kalyan-led Jana Sena Party (JSP), seems to be resurgent now. Secondly, the YSRCP will have to take on Andhra Pradesh Congress chief and Jagan’s sister Y S Sharmila, who is likely to eat into the party’s vote base.

Jagan is also faced with growing anti-incumbency against his ministers and MLAs, some of whom are said to have lost connect with their electorate after the commencement of disbursement of welfare scheme funds through Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT).

Jagan has dropped or shifted a slew of YSRCP MLAs and MPs in order to beat anti-incumbency, leading to an exodus of party leaders to other parties. Over the past few months, the YSRCP has faced desertion by at least six sitting MPs. The YSRCP chief, in the candidate list announced for all 175 Assembly and 24 Lok Sabha seats last week, dropped 14 sitting MPs and 37 MLAs.

“The CM’s intentions cannot be questioned but a leader’s comfort and stronghold must also be taken into account (while shifting them from seats),” a YSRCP office-bearer from Visakhapatnam said.

Another challenge the ruling party faces is to retain the TDP strongholds like the undivided districts of Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, East and West Godavari, and Visakhapatnam, which it had swept in 2019.

The YSRCP is also grappling with the capital issue, especially in the wake of Hyderabad ceasing to exist as the common capital of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh after June 2. With his three-capital formula not getting traction, Jagan recently told a rally that he would take the oath of office for a second term from Visakhapatnam.

On the other hand, the TDP-JSP alliance has got a shot in the arm with the BJP joining it and is looking to capitalise on the consolidation of the Kamma-Kapu votes, among other things, to dislodge the YSRCP government.

Kammas, who are traditional supporters of the TDP as Naidu belongs to the community, make up around 5% of the population in Andhra Pradesh. Pawan Kalyan belongs to the Kapu community, which accounts for about 18% of the state’s population.

Although the Kamma and Kapu communities are considered to be traditional rivals, both the TDP and the JSP believe that the Naidu-Kalyan alliance would also lead to an alignment of the voters of the two communities, which will boost their prospects.

Historically, the TDP has fared better when it has joined hands with the BJP. In 2014, the party in alliance with the BJP, stormed to power, winning 102 Assembly and 16 Lok Sabha seats. Five years later, contesting alone, it faced a drubbing.

“There are no issues in the TDP-JSP alliance this time. We will win the maximum number of Lok Sabha as well as Assembly seats,” a senior TDP leader said even as reports about the resentment of the party cadre over seat-sharing emerged from various parts of the state.

The TDP is also bracing for accommodating “turncoats and rebels” from its rival. Most disgruntled YSRCP leaders are looking to join the TDP even as a few are headed to the BJP and the JSP.

Both the YSRCP and the TDP are heading into the upcoming elections carrying the baggage of not being able to get from the Centre the special category status (SCS) for the state. While Naidu walked out of the NDA in 2018 over the issue, Jagan has also not been able to secure it despite having been “friendly” to the BJP all along.

Role of national parties

Following its bifurcation in 2014, Andhra Pradesh has seen the dominance of regional outfits, with both the Congress and the BJP getting sidelined in the state.

The BJP drew a blank in the 2019 Assembly and Lok Sabha polls with an average vote share of less than 1%, lesser than NOTA, while in the 2014 polls the party had won two Lok Sabha and four Assembly seats with a vote share of over 2%.

The Congress has not been able to win a single Assembly or Lok Sabha seat in the state since the 2014 polls, with its average vote share declining from over 2.5% in 2014 to over 1% in 2019.