Opinion Israel-Iran ceasefire: A fragile pause

Notwithstanding its fragility, the ceasefire between Israel and Iran is a promising development. When the US bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 22, a big concern was the absence of an off-ramp — a face-saver for Iran, after which de-escalation could become a serious possibility. Yet, US President Donald Trump’s declaration of a ceasefire came just hours after Iran announced a missile attack on a US base in Qatar. Remarkably, the US President thanked Iran on social media for giving advance notice — a move he claimed helped avoid the loss of any Qatari or American lives. While tensions between Washington and Tehran appear to be easing, the actual signatories of the Trump-brokered deal have continued to exchange fire. Each belligerent, however, may now have a victory story to sell to its domestic audience: The US has said it has “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear programme, Israel can say it has weakened a major regional adversary, and Iran can say it pushed back against stronger countries.

Even though both Iran and Israel have confirmed it, the future of the ceasefire remains uncertain. Both Tel Aviv and Tehran would do well to consider the high costs of failing to contain the conflict. Iran, in particular, has suffered extensive losses — its air force and air defences have been severely damaged, oil depots burned, and key military leadership eliminated. Though Tehran refrained from closing the Strait of Hormuz, the global economy remains hostage to the stability of the region. With Gaza still under siege, a failure to de-escalate risks the conflict spilling into neighbouring countries like Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, potentially fuelling a rise in militancy and extremism. A surge in displacement and refugee flows would deepen instability in a world strained by wars in Africa and Eastern Europe.

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The case for peace could hardly be stronger. In the long term, Iran should prioritise transparency and diplomacy over clandestine activities with respect to its nuclear programme. In light of how easily its air defences were overwhelmed, the worst scenario is that Iran — like North Korea — may now conclude that the best way to protect itself is a nuclear deterrent. Israel, on its part, should resort to diplomacy, and not military adventurism, to have its security concerns addressed in any lasting way.