Opinion Two years on, a flicker of hope in Gaza

While Hamas framed its attacks as a response to incursions and provocations by far-right groups in Israel that had become part of the government, it also had a geopolitical motivation: To thwart the US-backed normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Hamas was also attempting to re-establish itself as the leading military force of the Palestinian resistance.

Hamas, however, completely miscalculated the scale, duration and ferocity of Israel’s response to October 7. It had expected an Israeli response along the lines of those to earlier attacks that resulted in aerial bombardments lasting a few weeks, with limited ground incursions, eventually leading to a ceasefire and an exchange of Palestinian prisoners for Israeli hostages.

What it also did not foresee was the personal motivation of Israel’s Prime Minister to continue in power to avoid facing political consequences for the October 7 failure, as well as to postpone the legal proceedings that were initiated earlier on charges of alleged bribery. Dependent on far-right ministers in his cabinet, his only option to remain in power was to prolong the war. This led to Israel postponing and violating ceasefire proposals for nearly two years, despite the enormous human costs and unprecedented destruction inflicted upon Gaza.

The numbers illustrate the extent of the humanitarian catastrophe. Reportedly, over 67,000 Palestinians have been killed, about half of them women and children. Large parts of Gaza have become uninhabitable. Roughly 60 per cent of homes, along with most civilian infrastructure including hospitals and schools, have been destroyed or damaged. Almost all of Gaza’s population, estimated at 2.3 million, has been displaced. Eighty-two per cent of Gaza is reported to be within Israel’s militarised zones, leaving 18 per cent of the territory for 90 per cent of the population to survive in. Population density is over 30,000 per square kilometre for Gaza’s Al-Mawasi region. The economic consequences are equally dire. Gaza’s GDP has shrunk by more than 80 per cent with almost no employment. An entire generation of Gazans will have to endure the lasting psychological impact of their humiliation.

In Israel, the war has caused deep fissures. The massive security and intelligence failure remains an unending trauma. While the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) control large parts of the Gaza Strip, Hamas has not been completely destroyed, nor have all the hostages been released. In addition, Israel finds itself more isolated internationally than it has been in decades. There will be long-term consequences for its security.

The geopolitical consequences of October 7 have been equally profound. The war has reverberated in the region and beyond, particularly in Lebanon, Syria, and Iran. This has led to the severe degradation of the Axis of Resistance, an informal Iran-led coalition across West Asia opposing the influence of the US and Israel.

When Hezbollah, the most important part of the Axis of Resistance, opened up a second front in northern Israel immediately after October 7, with the purpose of diverting the IDF’s attention from Gaza, Israel carried out a systematic and highly successful operation against it. It eliminated Hezbollah operatives through a sophisticated attack on the pagers they were using, followed by the assassination of their leader, Hassan Nasrallah. This led to a ceasefire deal in November 2024, effectively ending Hezbollah attacks on Israel. It also led to Lebanon reasserting sovereignty and military control over the south, opening up possibilities for its reconstruction and development.

The weakening of Hezbollah by Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon had a direct and fatal impact on Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. Hezbollah had played a critical military role in keeping it alive from the Arab Spring of 2011 onwards. With the near collapse of Hezbollah, Russia focusing on the Ukraine war and Iran more concerned about self-preservation, the Assad regime collapsed after a 12-day offensive led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, the current Syrian president.

The change of regime in Syria, the collapse of Hezbollah and the destruction of Hamas have also severely undermined Iran’s power and influence, making it vulnerable to attacks by Israel. Soon after the International Atomic Energy Agency declared that Iran was not complying with its safeguards obligations and had enriched more than 400 kg of uranium to 60 per cent, Israel implemented its long-term policy of eliminating Iran’s nuclear program. It attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities, destroying its air defences and missile launchers, and targeting its military and nuclear leadership. The attack ended with a massive US bombing of uranium enrichment installations. These attacks not only derailed the nuclear discussions between Iran and the US but led to the UN reimposing sanctions on Iran that were suspended in 2015.

The notion that diplomacy could refashion a different West Asia — through the Abraham Accords and a new connectedness between Israel and longstanding Arab adversaries — now faces huge hurdles. The war in Gaza, which has now lasted for two years, has not only devastated the strip but also intensified existing geopolitical tensions, triggered major regional conflicts, and put immense strain on the international system and its humanitarian laws. Talks are currently underway in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. Long-lasting peace that has eluded the region for the last 75 years can come about only with accommodation and statesmanship. One can only dare to hope.

The writer is former ambassador of India to Egypt and former permanent representative of India to the Arab League