Opinion Is Turkey moving towards full autocracy? Erdogan’s rival Imamoğlu’s imprisonment indicates so

Imamoğlu is not a typical politician. His last name, “Imamoğlu,” means “son of a cleric,” reflecting his deep-rooted connection to Turkey’s cultural and religious heritage. He has emerged as the most formidable challenger to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Imamoğlu is a natural-born leader who upholds democracy not just in words but also in his personal life. His political career too embodies both national and religious values in a single, balanced approach.

The 53-year-old decisively won the local election over the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) chosen candidate this past spring, further solidifying his support base in Istanbul, a city of 16 million and Turkey’s economic powerhouse. His only “fault” is his merit to win against the AKP — winning four consecutive times, including the annulled 2019 election. Here, whoever wins Istanbul wins Turkey.

Imamoğlu’s imprisonment serves as the latest and most definitive sign of Turkey’s move towards full autocracy, where leaders seek to eliminate their strongest rivals. This pattern mirrors the actions of autocrats in Venezuela, Belarus, Uganda, Nicaragua, and Zimbabwe. However, Turkey stands apart as a NATO member and an EU candidate nation, a status that should be committed to democratic norms. Throughout its history, Turkey has experienced both democratic progress and setbacks, yet its pluralistic and diverse society has remained a cornerstone of its identity.

Despite the government’s repeated proclamations of its commitment to EU membership, its actions tell a different story. Safeguarding democracy, upholding the rule of law, protecting human rights—including those of minorities—and ensuring a functional market economy have all fallen down on the list of priorities.

For instance, Turkey’s increasing isolation from global human rights norms signals its democratic backslide. The country’s withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention on preventing violence against women and its refusal to implement European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) rulings exemplify this trend. Since the 2023 general elections, opposition MP Can Atalay remains imprisoned despite both a Turkish Supreme Court ruling and an ECHR judgment favouring his release, highlighting the government’s disregard for international legal standards. There is also the appointment of government-picked administrators to replace democratically elected opposition mayors in five districts of Istanbul.

The erosion of democratic principles extends beyond the judiciary. In recent years, Turkey’s ruling party has increasingly stifled dissent through restrictive measures on public assembly, freedom of speech, and independent journalism. Financial penalties and relentless legal harassment of opposition figures have become standard tactics, draining their resources and diminishing their influence. As a result, ordinary citizens feel disillusioned and vulnerable, unprotected by the very institutions meant to uphold justice.

Imamoğlu’s imprisonment is not just about a single political rivalry; it symbolises a broader assault on democratic values in Turkey. The legal harassment he faced, including the sudden revocation of his university diploma just a day before his arrest and his imprisonment coinciding with the date of his expected presidential candidacy announcement, underscores the government’s determination to eliminate any significant challenge to the status quo.

The relentless efforts to disqualify him, the manipulation of the judiciary and the consolidation of power, all serve as a warning to anyone who dares to challenge Turkey’s leadership. More concerning is that this pattern is not unique to Turkey; rather, it reflects a global trend seen in authoritarian regimes that weaken the opposition, disempower citizens, and entrench a small ruling elite indefinitely. With each instance of legal harassment, Turkey drifts further from the principles of fairness and equality, intensifying political polarisation.

Now, tens of thousands of citizens are taking to the streets, sensing this dangerous shift and fearing for the future of democracy in their country. They worry that, if left unchecked, this authoritarian drift will push their country into a comatose state, akin to many post-Soviet states where citizens lose all trust and faith in their representatives.

The world is watching what is unfolding here. The question remains: Will Turkey’s democratic spirit endure, or will it succumb to the growing tide of autocracy?

Bilal Bilici is a Member of Parliament, representing Adana province in the Grand National Assembly of Türkiye, from the CHP