Opinion The Third Man

The SAD and the Congress have strong and identifiable vote banks. The Akalis have a substantial base in rural areas,while the Congress’s supporters are spread across urban and semi-urban areas. None of the other parties,including the Left,have been able to act as spoilers. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) too has not been able to make a dent in the pattern even though the state has the highest percentage of Dalits in the country,pegged at about 30 per cent of the population. The BSP founder,Kanshi Ram,hailed from Punjab and started his political life there but the party has never emerged as a force to reckon with in the state. The BSP’s vote percentage has been mostly declining since the early 1990s. It managed a vote share of 16.32 per cent and bagged nine seats in the 1992 assembly elections which the Akalis had boycotted. In 1997,the BSP’s vote percentage dropped to 7.8 and it won just one seat. The percentage dropped to 5.7 in 2002 and 4.1 in 2007.

2012 has,however,witnessed the emergence of a third front which neither the Congress nor the Akalis can ignore. The Sanjha Morcha,led by Manpreet Singh Badal,former finance minister and estranged cousin of SAD President Sukhbir Singh Badal,is forcing the two main rivals to factor in its presence while making their election strategies. The front has Manpreet’s People’s Party of Punjab,the Left parties and some splinter groups. He tried to rope in the BSP but the party has decided to go it alone. The front has decided to contest all seats. Manpreet,on the one hand,asks voters to “restore the Punjabi pride”,and on the other,criticises SAD for not being serious about improving the state’s economy.

Manpreet Singh Badal has led a sustained campaign for about a year and claims that his party has 18 lakh voters enrolled. Neither the Congress nor the SAD initially paid much heed to his efforts but with the election drawing closer,these parties have started to take the third front more seriously. Manpreet has been able to net some of the disgruntled leaders from both parties and has fielded them against those parties’ nominees. In a coup of sorts he has pitted father Gurdas Badal against his brother and Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal in the Lambi constituency. It was well known that while the elder brother enjoyed the fruits of power,Gurdas was the one who looked after the constituency on his behalf. Thus Manpreet and his supporters are of the firm view that the constituency would return the favour to his father. The front has put up strong candidates in nearly a dozen constituencies.

Even the main rivals now privately admit that the front may be able to influence the outcome in these constituencies. Because of the Sanjha Morcha,for the first time the Congress as well as the SAD played the wait-and-watch game before announcing some of their candidates. The dissidents have been flocking to Manpreet after they had been denied tickets by the two major parties. These leaders can cut both ways. Manpreet’s political acumen and organisational skills are on test. The main rivals are going all out in their campaign,for even a minor shift of votes can change political calculations.

vipin.pubby@expressindia.com