Opinion The return of G-2?

Even as President Obama and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh talked of a 21st century world order based on their shared values as leaders of the world’s two largest democracies,a newspaper run by the Chinese Communist Party published a plan for an alternative world order,based on a mutuality of interests between China and the US.It asserted,though,that the article,in the November 22 edition of People’s Daily Online,represented only the views of the authors — who include John Milligan-Whyte and Dai Min,authors of China and America’s Leadership in Peaceful Coexistence,and Thomas P.M. Barnett,the author of The Pentagon’s New Map,and leading Chinese policy experts.The article describes the benefits of the grand strategy they propose: “[it will promote US economic recovery,increase US exports to China,create 12 million US jobs,balance China-US trade as well as reduce US government deficits and debt. Furthermore,it will stabilise the US dollar,global currency and bond markets. It will also enable reform of international institutions,cooperative climate change remediation,international trade,global security breakthroughs… The essence of the grand strategy is that the United States and China will balance their bilateral trade and never go to war with each other,and the US will refrain from seeking regime change and interference in China’s internal affairs with regard to Taiwan,Tibet,Xinjiang,the Internet,human rights,etc and China will continue its political,legal,economic and human rights reforms.”There are,of course,flashpoints there. On Taiwan and North Korea,the article says that “the Taiwan situation will be demilitarised by an informal US presidential moratorium on arms transfers to Taiwan,China’s reduction of strike forces arrayed against it,a reduction of US strike forces arrayed against China and ongoing joint peacekeeping exercises by US,Chinese and Taiwan militaries. The strategic uncertainty surrounding the nuclear programme in Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) will be de-escalated by the US eschewing DPRK regime-change goals and China ensuring that the DPRK adopt policies along the lines of Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms and terminate its nuclear weapons program.”And,meanwhile,on Asian regional security,“China will negotiate the eventual resolution of sovereignty disputes on the basis of the ASEAN Code of Conduct and… the United States and China will harmonise and coordinate their roles… and relations with Asian nations to ensure the peaceful coexistence and the economic stability and growth of ASEAN nations in their bilateral and multilateral relations and roles in ASEAN,APEC,etc.”There is no doubt that while this is not a formal proposal from Chinese official circles; this is kite-flying,to test public reaction in the US. It is possible that the idea is to suggest that the US and China can accommodate each other to mutual benefit — and China shares the US view that a war between two such powers in the 21st century would not make sense. It also holds out certain assurances that China will accommodate the US’s concerns on Southeast Asia as well as on North Korean and Iranian proliferation,provided the US reciprocates on Taiwan,Tibet,Xinjiang,and human rights. The US must also forget down its desire for regime change in North Korea and Iran. And,in return for the US lifting its high-technology trade ban,China will invest $1 trillion in the US,presumably in new technologies,as well as help in balancing trade and enabling the US to manage debt reduction. But the glaring gap in the proposals is that there is no mention of Pakistani proliferation and Pakistani sponsorship of terrorism. While all the other issues listed by China are important to the US,casualties are being incurred by the US on the Pakistan front,and the US homeland is under threat from Pakistani terrorist organisations that are fielded by the Pakistan army behind the nuclear-missile deterrence shield that China provides to Islamabad. This may have one of two implications: either Pakistan,unlike North Korea and Iran,is not under Chinese influence; or Pakistan,in Chinese strategic interests,is a non-negotiable factor. There is also no mention of US interests in India — even after the development of the Indo-US strategic partnership. Does this mean that China hopes to wean the US away from its strategic partnership with India,as part of the price for the deal? Or do they hope to frighten India into a non-aligned submission to China’s hegemony over the mainland of Asia (less Asean)?China’s,and the authors’,value systems are evident from their advocacy that such a Sino-US deal should be outside the purview of the US Congress purview: they say it should be “agreed upon by the presidents of both nations through an ‘executive agreement’ not subject to US Senate ratification.” Surely,now that these ideas have been publicised,the present US president — with two years to go before seeking re-election — will find it difficult to move in this direction,as there will be accusations of his selling out to China. It is also clear that there are sections in China who are of the view that,just as the US helped China’s rise to second position in the world so that its resources and cheap labour could benefit US multinationals and US consumers — both by way of cheap consumer goods and credit expansion in the US — now the US will help China by releasing high technology,and thereby help themselves,benefiting through job creation and debt reduction. And once China has access to US high-tech,its demographic advantage over the US will ensure it will become the superior knowledge power this century.A significant number of people in this country imagine that there is an adversarial equation and a conflict of interest between China and the US,and thus,it will benefit India to be non-aligned. This article — published,significantly,on the eve of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao’s visit to India and Pakistan — holds out the possibility that China thinks it is possible to use the US to attain hegemonic power. Let us wake up to reality!

The writer is a senior defence analyst express@expressindia.com