Opinion The issues in an ‘issueless’ election

Again,it is not that all these issues envelope all the constituencies. The farmers’ suicide may dominate the intellectual debate,but that issue does not click in Mumbai,Pune or Konkan. Also the suicides are only in three districts. That does not mean that they are not relevant to the rest of the state. It only means that even if there is a concern about that ongoing tragedy,it will not influence the vote in Mumbai or Pune or about 130 urban constituencies. Similarly,though everyone knows about the power shortage and consequent loadshedding,Mumbaikars have not experienced the 8 to12-hour black-out. Actually,Mumbai was spared that agony. Though life in the metropolis has been as usual,difficult and on the tenterhooks,it is not the dominant theme in Mumbai.

One could even venture to suggest that close to 80 per cent of the Marathi voters in Greater Mumbai (including Thane) will choose to vote for the Shiv Sena or Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. But the demographic configuration here is such that there are just about 20 constituencies out of 60,where the so-called Marathi vote bank will influence the result. The vote of this Marathi bank will be split and the Shiv Sena may suffer. But the Congress and the NCP have not fully realised that the MNS is also attracting a huge chunk of the anti-incumbent Marathi vote. There is a considerable spread of this otherwise pro-Congress voter,who is disgusted with the government and does not want to reinstall it into power. But because of the rise of the militant MNS,most non-Marathi voters have swung in favour of the ruling alliance — not out of affection or credibility but out of fear. There has never before been a ‘constituency’ of non-Marathi voters,even during the early days of the Shiv Sena. But 43 years ago,when the Shiv Sena was launched,the metropolis was demographically different.

There were vast areas with a high concentration of Marathi voters — the textile mill belt,where over 2.5 lakh millhands worked,over 90 per cent of them Marathi. Then there was a strong trade union movement which was communist/socialist but totally secular. There was a city-wide middle class (mostly white collar lower middle class) which was primarily Marathi. So,despite such a high concentration of Marathi voters,it took two decades for the militant Shiv Sena to even capture the Mumbai Corporation. In those days,ideology as well as parties mattered. The Congress,even after the split had credibility,with Y.B. Chavan enjoying the status which Sharad Pawar never managed to acquire. Today the party,or rather both the Congress parties,have no accepted icon,leader,or chief minister. Twice in the last ten years,Vilasrao Deshmukh had to quit on the eve of elections. Sushilkumar Shinde in the last government and Ashok Chavan in this term have had to play the night-watchman’s role. The government could not provide political leadership nor could it halt the steady deterioration of the system.

That is the reason Raj has grown,in at least this metropolitan region,and many Congress activists have openly or quietly begun working for him. So it is not as if he is just cutting into the SS-BJP vote,but also denting the Cong-NCP base. But it is necessary to remember that Raj is not the issue in Marathwada,Vidarbha,North or Western and South Maharashtra. He could mobilise mammoth meetings even in those areas,but there is no social base for him. There,he is perceived more as a TV tiger or a celebrity.

The loan waiver,which came as a rescue package for the Vidarbha farmers,benefited even those in Western Maharashtra — the sugar-cooperative belt — though they did not really need it. In fact,this helped the NCP consolidate its dwindling base in the Maratha-dominated constituencies. But again,it acted more as a largesse rather than enhancing the credibility of the government. Most people have watched with a kind of helplessness,the same leaders or their family members contesting elections and as a result,the young and politically ambitious second-third rank activists have quietly deserted the party. It is this discontent,whether in the Shiv Sena or the Cong-NCP which has strengthened the ranks of Raj Thackeray.

It is also the main reason why there are over 3,500 candidates for just 288 constituencies. In many cases,the Pawar-led NCP is sabotaging Congress candidates. The NCP has always regarded the Congress as the main enemy,even as they have formed the government with them. But in this election,it is much more an ‘organised rebellion’ by the NCP.

The so-called Third Front,consisting of the Republican Party and the loose Left,will surely further damage the Congress and that is why most field watchers have noted that both Pawar and the SS-BJP have suddenly developed affection for this confused third alternative,which has no hope of winning even 10,but has the potential of damaging 30 additional Congress seats

It would not be correct to say that this election is totally “issueless” or “agendaless”,because one predominant issue is anti-incumbency,further sharpened by non-performance and utter non-governance. The cynicism is so much that despite this widespread sentiment,Vilasrao Deshmukh is entertaining the dream of becoming chief minister for the third time. However,the voter cannot be taken for granted by the opinion polls as well as by the wise talking heads on the channels. All of them and the parties in the fray are in for a rude shock on October 22.

kumar.ketkar@expressindia.com