Opinion Taiwan’s new president has his task cut out
Lai Ching-te must ensure that the island nation doesn't become a theatre for the squabbles of big powers.
The election victory for William Lai of the DPP has led to a rigmarole of statements from China and the United States (US). (Photo/X/@ChingteLai) 
Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was elected President of Taiwan after an election where his competitors, Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang (KMT) and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) conceded defeat to the former Vice President. This marks the DPP’s third consecutive tenure in office, with more than 40 per cent of votes going to William Lai. Hsiao Bi-khim will be the Vice President. She was the representative of Taiwan to the United States from 2020 to 2023. William Lai assumes his presidency on May 20. Briefly, let us parse through what makes Taiwan and its political culture unique.
Politics of an island nation
The Legislative Yuan, Taiwan’s parliament, elects 113 members, of whom 73 are directly elected, with ballots counted by hand and each vote publicly displayed. Thirty-four seats of the Legislative Yuan are “at large”, allotted proportionately to parties that have secured more than 5 per cent of the votes. The remaining six seats are allotted to indigenous communities, who have been living on the island, much before Ilha Formosa, as it was called by the Portuguese, had their minor coastal holdings facing the South China Sea. The Central Election Commission conducts these polls every four years and is lauded for its efficiency. Taiwan’s elections for a new President demonstrate the country’s varying political expressions that it has witnessed over seven decades — this time, it is democracy with Taiwanese characteristics.
After losing the civil war on the mainland to the communists, the Kuomintang (KMT) led by Chiang Kai-shek “relocated” to Taiwan to establish a nation, where the “market” decides the economy, different from the overwhelming “state control” exemplified by the Communist Party of China (CPC) led by Mao Zedong. The KMT began its rule on the island authoritatively, with settled populations in a few towns and hinterland uncomfortable with “mainlanders” who were “occupiers”. Within a few decades, the economy determined daily life, and Taiwan, then known as the Republic of China (ROC), adapted quickly to the former coloniser Japan’s methodologies in fomenting active participation in building an economic nation. During the Cold War, Taiwan had phases of tension with mainland China, but protective reassurances from the United States kept mainland China troops at a distance.
Chiang Kai-shek’s totalitarianism gave way to his son Chiang Ching Kuo’s farsighted demeanour as an authoritarian who steered political culture from absolute control to relative authoritarianism while encouraging the establishment of political parties — with the island gradually transforming into a democracy. A one-party democracy was visualised with the KMT at the helm supported by weaker political parties and Lee Teng-hui of the KMT as elected President exemplified this. This gave way to the Democratic People’s Party (DPP), coming to power for the first time in 2000 with Chen Shui-bian, who was at the helm until 2008 when his constitutional limit of two terms for elected President ended. He was replaced by Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT (2008-2016) who gave way to Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP in 2016. With William Lai, the DPP continues to be in power.
There are many important features of Taiwan’s politics. Public enthusiasm for polls is reflected in the media commentary and debates on digital platforms with television documentaries highlighting what contesting candidates must do to assuage people about the economy — and how to convey a politically open Taiwan template to centralised mainland China, just 180 kms across the Taiwan Straits.
Economic Taiwan
With a GDP of $1.2 trillion and a population of 23 million, Taiwan’s per capita income exceeds $32,000 making it northeast Asia’s second richest economy after Japan. Innovative research in “computronics” has made it an island hub for micro technologies, especially microchips and semiconductors. Smartphone manufacturers like Apple source their microchips from companies like Qualcomm and Taiwan Semiconductors Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC). More than 70 per cent of Taiwan’s GDP comes from international trade.
China covets digital technologies created and fabricated in Taiwan, which it wants to replicate. Taiwan, despite the size of China’s economy and its bellicose statements, has stuck to the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) signed with Beijing during KMT Ma Ying-jeou’s term. Not surprisingly, China has a large trade deficit with Taiwan as bilateral trade in 2023 was around $ 224 billion. Taiwanese private investments in the mainland are estimated to be more than $100 billion and there are a few million working in factories owned by Taiwan companies.
Calls in Taiwan to shift its overreliance from China to countries like India and Vietnam are gathering steam. Taiwan’s multi-billion dollar investment in the software sector to manufacture digital chips in India is an example. Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Vietnam, with whom there was a war in 1979, has economic undercurrents too. These arise from his worries about Taiwan’s investments in Fujian province being shifted to Vietnam. After all, Xi Jinping was the CPC Secretary and Governor of this province (1999-2002), closest to Taiwan from the South China Sea.
Strategic Taiwan
The election victory for William Lai of the DPP has led to a rigmarole of statements from China and the United States (US). China criticises Taiwan for its flawed political system “choosing” a splittist and denier of history. The US has made statements about democracy being secure in the hands of the newly elected leader of Taiwan from the DPP, with whom they have had a deep relationship.
As an island with the South China Sea and the Pacific Ocean on two sides, Taiwan is not a member of UNCLOS, while abiding by its tenets scrupulously. The US, while increasing its arms sales to Taiwan, conveniently ignores Taiwan’s desire to be a member of the World Health Organisation, despite its exceptional health care system and facilities. As a member of the WTO, and named Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu (Chinese Taipei), the island of Taiwan has acquiesced to trading with China, the US, EU, Japan and other countries as recognition of its difference from the mainland. William Lai will, as President, have to move with caution and not make the island a theatre for big powers to squabble over. As a democracy, Taiwan will continue to ensure that future leaders are people with excellent educational backgrounds.
The writer is Associate Professor, Center for East Asian Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University. Views are personal.
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