Opinion With Shehbaz Sharif at its head, a vulnerable new government forms in Pakistan

This makes it less likely that the new government of the PML-N and PPP will confront legal or constitutional challenges on account of Imran Khan loyalists in key constitutional posts. Asaf Ali Zardari becoming President for a second time after his 2008-13 tenure underlines both the repetitive nature of Pakistani politics as also his personal qualities that make him such a formidable player of a relatively weak hand.

Even more significant are the changes in the political landscape of Pakistan since 2022-2023. Most prominent is Imran Khan’s visible demonstration of his power as an independent political force. The question of whether he can survive without military backing has been erased and the February 2024 elections proved that reports of his charismatic appeal were not exaggerated.

In fact, the overall results have been a vindication of Imran Khan’s position, most clearly for his defiance of the military establishment. The latter had accused Khan of orchestrating attacks in May 2023 on its installations and landmarks. That effort to drum up public outrage against him failed quite spectacularly and may even have backfired.

Significantly, Imran Khan has displaced Nawaz Sharif from his pedestal of being the leading political voice against the military in Pakistan. That Nawaz Sharif stood aside in favour of his brother to be Prime Minister reflects both his declining personal political standing, as equally the PML–N’s disappointing electoral performance.

This reiterates a surprisingly contradictory feature of Pakistan’s politics: The existence of a significant anti-military narrative space. The party that commands this space reaps the electoral harvest as Imran Khan did this time.

The momentum that Imran Khan has generated also strengthens the general sentiment that the PML–N and PPP coalition lacks both mandate and credibility. That the new government is going to be both brittle and fragile is evident; no surprise then that there is already speculation about its longevity.

Perhaps more than anything else, mutual suspicions and distrust will prey on all the stakeholders. Notwithstanding the greater acceptability of Shehbaz Sharif, as compared to Nawaz Sharif, the residual suspicions of the PML–N within the military establishment should not be underestimated. The same applies to the PPP-military relationship.

The PPP-PML– interface is also going to be friction-ridden, with both sides feeling that the other has got more out of the coalition agreement. The PPP’s delay in clarifying whether it will be part of the PML–N cabinet or just support it from outside, reveals the significant fissures between the two parties. The PML–N will remain suspicious about a possible PPP-Imran Khan deal in the future or even a Imran Khan-military rapprochement. The point is that the surprisingly strong showing of Imran Khan in the election has left all other players feeling vulnerable.

The military’s image is certainly dented but it remains the principal political player in Pakistan. There seems to be so far no rethink about its approach to Imran Khan and he may continue in jail. A popular leader imprisoned, a restive public and a shaky coalition forming the government may appear to be a leaky ship for the Pakistan military to be trying to sail. But it has navigated such situations before and may well feel confident that it can do so again despite the turbulent seas on the way.

Politics aside, this coalition will face the full portfolio of problems that it encountered in its earlier incarnation and some of which have become even more formidable. The economy is obviously the most important of these and also the most intractable. Pakistan’s neighbourhood relations are also deeply troubled. Relations with Afghanistan have deteriorated sharply. Pakistan finds to its great frustration that on issues vital to its interests, the Taliban government is no different from its predecessor. The Tehrik i Taliban Pakistan poses a major internal security threat and the recent spike in terrorist attacks is deeply damaging to public morale. Relations with Iran are in an uncertain phase as the recent missile and drone attacks and counter attacks show.

In India, expectations that a return of Nawaz Sharif would open up new possibilities for some normalisation with Pakistan will now have to be tempered. In the foreseeable future, Pakistan is going to be even more self-absorbed in what is already a very sombre phase of its contemporary history. Nevertheless, India-Pakistan relations rarely follow a predictable or linear path for any length of time. Even in the most unusual situations opportunities exist and arise unexpectedly, and good neighbourhood diplomacy also means being on the lookout for these.

The writer is a former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan