Opinion Israel-Hamas ceasefire is welcome – but peace won’t be easy
In the unpredictable and volatile Middle East, nothing is certain until it actually happens.
Supporters of Israeli hostages react to the ceasefire news during a protest in Tel Aviv on Wednesday. (Source: Reuters) 
-
Share -
-
-
At last, there’s a ceasefire deal. Though fragile and temporary, the cessation of active hostilities in the Israel-Hamas war is a welcome development. This is the first sign of hope since the brief pause in November 2023 that saw the release of 41 Israeli hostages in return for the freedom of 300 Palestinian prisoners. Out of the 251 Israelis taken hostage by Hamas in October 2023, Israel says that 94 are yet to be returned, of which 34 are presumed dead. If there are no last-minute twists, the ceasefire should come into force on Sunday, January 19.
Under the deal mediated by the outgoing Biden administration and Qatar, 33 Israeli hostages would be released during the first phase of the ceasefire lasting six weeks, and the remaining during the second phase, negotiations for which will start on the 16th day of phase one. Israel is expected to free about 1,000 Palestinians, including several who are serving life-terms, in the first phase. They might be freed and sent to third countries willing to accept them. The ceasefire also will facilitate the flow of much-needed humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip and the evacuation of injured Gazans to Egypt for further treatment.
The deal comes more than 15 months after the Hamas-led attack on Israel of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent Israeli counter-offensive. In total, the war has caused the deaths of over 46,000 Palestinians and close to 2,000 Israelis, nearly half of them soldiers. The number of injured is over 1,10,000 on the Palestinian side and over 13,500 Israelis. The conflict has also resulted in the displacement of over 1.9 million Palestinians and over 2,00,000 Israelis (if one includes northern Israel following Hezbollah’s attacks). The infrastructure destruction of the Gaza Strip is humongous. The brutal conflict has generated intense personal animosity and hatred on both sides, which is difficult to overcome, if not mend.
While Hamas has agreed to the deal, the Israeli cabinet was expected to discuss and endorse it on Thursday. As required by domestic laws, the list of Palestinian prisoners to be freed has to be notified, and this might trigger legal challenges, further delaying the swap agreement. Even within the cabinet, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might face opposition from hardline ministers who are not ready for any accommodation with Hamas. Hence, the Sunday deadline is still uncertain.
Several issues need some clarity. While Israel is committed to a partial withdrawal from some parts, there are no details concerning the complete withdrawal of the Israeli Defence Forces from the Gaza Strip, one of the major preconditions of Hamas that torpedoed previous negotiations. Will both sides stop military operations? Will the ceasefire enable ordinary Israelis and Palestinians to return to their homes and rebuild their lives? Will the Iran-backed “axis of resistance” — that also includes Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen — honour the Israel-Hamas deal? Or will they support more radical Palestinian elements and undermine the ceasefire efforts? What will be the nature of reconstruction efforts in Gaza, a territory reduced to rubble? Will Israel and Hamas convince the international community to fund a reconstruction effort free from future destructive paths?
Officially, Israel had ruled out any meaningful role for Hamas in post-ceasefire Gaza. This means that the internationally recognised and West Bank-based Palestine National Authority (PNA) will have to play a central role in the administration of the Gaza Strip. There are greater calls for the octogenarian Mahmoud Abbas to take the lead, but this will not be easy. Due to internal security threats in the Gaza Strip, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat moved his headquarters to Ramallah back in 2001. Since then, neither Arafat nor his successor Abbas have ever set foot in the Gaza Strip. Intra-Palestinian tensions culminated in the takeover of the Gaza Strip by Hamas in June 2007, leading to a de facto division of Palestinian territories. Hence, the PNA taking over the administration of the Gaza Strip will be a herculean task.
Moreover, Hamas and other militant Palestinian groups are without a recognised or recognisable leadership. Since the recent conflict began, Israel has eliminated a number of senior Hamas leaders, including Yahya Sinwar, Ismail Haniyeh and Mohammed Deif. Israel has considerably destroyed the infrastructure of the militant group and, in the process, curtailed the social welfare component for which Hamas is supported by certain sections of the Palestinian people.
Since October 2023, various national and international bodies, including the United Nations, have been working for a ceasefire. The main parties to the conflict — Hamas and Netanyahu — are not easy customers. Though unpopular and severely condemned, Netanyahu’s militant approach has damaged and weakened Israel’s other adversaries — Hezbollah, Iran and Syria — silencing several of his critics.
The fears over the incoming Trump administration also pushed the parties to conclude the elusive deal. Despite widespread criticisms and condemnations of the US and its favouritism towards Israel, the Biden administration, even in its last few days, is more effective than all other powers in bringing about some hope for peace. But in the eternally unpredictable Middle East, nothing is final until it actually happens. Sunday could still be far-off.
The writer teaches contemporary Middle East at Jawaharlal Nehru University
-
Share
-
-
-
Share
