Opinion Getting off the fence

After hedging for weeks,India last week conveyed to Iran that its nationals were primary suspects in the bomb attack on the Israeli diplomat. Interpol issued red-corner notices against four Iranians,who had allegedly done a recce of the Israeli embassy with the help of Indian journalist,Syed Ahmed Kazmi,who is in Delhi police custody.

The conflict between Iran and Israel landed on Indian shores last month and New Delhi,which likes to sit on the fence,is now being forced to take a stand one way or another.

This comes at a time when reports are emerging that the Obama administration might impose sanctions on India if India doesn’t reduce dependence on Iranian oil. India has reacted strongly to these reports. But Washington,not ready to jeopardise its ties with India,too made it clear that these news reports were “not an accurate reflection” of US policy. The sanctions measure that President Obama signed into law last year is targeted at countries that fail to make a “significant” reduction in their crude oil purchases from Iran during the first half of this year. Although there is evidence that India,along with South Korea,actually increased its oil imports from Iran in January,Indian refineries are now seeking alternative suppliers thereby trying to reduce their dependence on Iran. Delhi clearly faces difficulties in replacing Iranian oil supplies in the near term despite Saudi overtures. Not only does India favour a diversified oil basket but also a number of older refineries in India can only operate with Iranian crude.As India reduces its footprint in Iran,China would be only too willing to fill the vacuum.

Yet,after making a big fuss about the significance of Iran in Indian foreign policy,especially as a sign of its “strategic autonomy”,Delhi is having trouble articulating the limits of India-Iran ties. Bilateral trade between the two is expected to reach $30 billion by 2015,according to some estimates. It makes little sense for India to invest too much in expanding energy and trade ties with Tehran. Iran has not really been a reliable energy partner in the past and Iran’s economic isolation continues to hamper India’s outreach to Tehran.

In an ideal world,India would like to maintain its carefully nurtured relationships with the US and Israel without ditching Iran. Delhi finds itself caught between friends but it is now finding it difficult to look away as the faultlines between the West,Israel and the Arab Gulf on the one hand and Iran on the other get further entrenched. Global politics is forcing India to make some hard choices. Delhi still petulantly continues to demand that it is unfair to ask it to make this choice. But life at the high table of global politics is tough,and India will have to learn to live with it if it is serious about its role as an emerging global power.

The writer teaches at King’s College,London